Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton’s struggles in Japan: poor traction, lack of rotation and insufficient downforce. Ferrari’s struggles in Lewis Hamilton’s hands: Traction, Rotation, and Downforce Deficiencies.

Seeing a Ferrari like this in Formula 1 is painful. One cannot say otherwise when expectations were quite different. In this telemetry analysis of the red car, we will also include data from Kimi Antonelli. The performance of the Italian will help us understand the current form of the Maranello-based car. Let’s start by saying that Kimi Antonelli has offered another clear and unmistakable signal: he doesn’t drive to make an appearance, but to make a difference.

The Italian rookie drove a nearly perfect race, finishing in sixth place and scoring important points for the team. But that’s not all: with the fastest lap in the race and nine laps in the lead, he broke two records that belonged to a certain Max Verstappen, becoming the youngest driver to lead an F1 race and to set the fastest lap.

The performance was built on solid foundations: an incredibly long 30-lap stint on the medium tires, the longest on the grid, managed with disarming consistency. After Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, in fact, Kimi Antonelli was the third fastest in the first part of the race, with an average lap time of 1.33.669 and a best lap even recorded on lap 28, showing that the degradation on his W16 single-seater was practically zero.

After the only pit stop of the race, the trend was confirmed: the Mercedes driver was the fastest on track in the second stint, setting the fastest lap on lap 50, before finishing his race just over a second behind his teammate. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for car number 44. After a solid first part of the race, Lewis Hamilton’s attack on the 6th position stopped at lap 33, when the seven-time Formula 1 world champion tried an undercut on the 18-year-old from Mercedes by switching to the medium tire.

However, by the second lap of his stint, Kimi Antonelli’s hard tire provided more grip and performance, and Lewis Hamilton lost the use of the DRS system. From there on, a slow decline began: a 10.5-second gap by the end of the Japanese Grand Prix. The second stint was simply disastrous, which is strange considering the yellow tire is potentially more performant than the hard tire, especially in the first 15 laps.

Yet, as mentioned, in the last 23 laps, the average delta to Kimi Antonelli was about 5 tenths per lap. To understand what the actual limitations of the SF-25 were in the final part of the race, we decided to analyze two laps simultaneously from the Italian driver and Lewis Hamilton. We are talking about lap number 46. As a premise, it is important to note that there has been a lot of talk about ride heights since the start of the 2025 Formula 1 season.

Well, could these have affected the second half of the race at the 5.807-kilometre Suzuka Circuit? Because we remember that as the car consumes fuel, it naturally lightens in weight and, consequently, it rises slightly from the reference plane, possibly reaching heights that are not ideal for the proper functioning of the Ferrari single-seater. This is our hypothesis. As for the rest, there’s the thermal degradation that Lewis Hamilton himself confirmed via various team radio messages.

From the preliminary analysis of the telemetry, it is evident that all of Kimi Antonelli’s advantage is in the first sector, and this is quite curious: theoretically, this is the section of the track where the most grip is needed, which a softer tire compound can provide. Only in the snake section, namely from corners 2 to 7, does Lewis Hamilton lose as much as 0.519 seconds. In every single corner of the long section, the British driver has a significant speed deficit.

We especially notice this in the exit of turn 6 and in the entry into turn 7, where the delta is even 9 kilometers per hour: throughout the Suzuka weekend, the Red car struggled with understeer, and this corner is clear evidence of that. Even in the race, this phenomenon was present, although it seemed much more pronounced on the British driver’s car than on Charles Leclerc‘s, where small improvements in rotation were seen.

Furthermore, the lack of grip and downforce generated on the medium Pirelli compound is also confirmed by the full throttle and full braking data: as much as 4.6% more and 5.8% less, respectively, in favor of Kimi Antonelli, indicating that the Italian was much quicker and more easily on the throttle for traction, and needed to use the brakes less, showing excellent rotation and agility.

Considering the British driver’s handling, the Spoon section, namely corners 13-14, was the litmus test for the seven-time Formula 1 champion. A part of the track where it is necessary to carry as much speed as possible into the corner and through it, then try to get on the gas earlier, using all the track, and fully ride the external curb. Lewis Hamilton struggled from qualifying on Saturday, and in the race, the difference was more than clear.

He even loses 8 kilometers per hour at the apex, as he is forced to use the brakes much more to slow down the car, transfer weight to the front, and aim the front end at the apex of the corner. In the exit, once again, he is late on the throttle pedal, showing a lack of traction, and then carries the disadvantage throughout the 130R section, compromising not only the second sector but also part of the third.

The British driver had stated that he sacrificed qualifying performance for a race-oriented setup, but the data tells a different story. In fact, it is the exact opposite. There is certainly still much work to be done for Ferrari, and they need to study the dynamics of this SF-25 car carefully. A car that, at the moment, cannot extract all its potential, basically because the setups are not being optimized.

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