Ferrari wrapped up their home weekend just as they started it: in the spotlight. The Scuderia had already grabbed attention on Friday by unveiling a much-anticipated package of updates. However, the key to their success at home wasn’t the developments, but rather the human expertise of a team and a driver who were able to read a race that had never been so unpredictable at Monza, thanks to recent work at the Autodrome that was necessary to keep it on the calendar.
Friendly asphalt
Even before the race, drivers were complaining about the flattening of the curbs, particularly at the Ascari chicane. However, this change was well received by Ferrari’s drivers, aware of the SF-24’s difficulties in handling bumps at high speeds. The most important novelty, however, was the new asphalt, which was smoother, darker, and therefore warmer than the previous one. These characteristics caused the tires to slip and tear on the surface, a phenomenon commonly known as graining.
By Friday, it became clear that there was great uncertainty about whether to have a one-stop or two-stop race, pushing teams to preserve both sets of hard tires for the race, thus avoiding testing them during the first day’s simulations, which were run on a track that still lacked rubber. The only certainty was the need to manage graining, an area where McLaren still did not excel, according to Andrea Stella: “I think our car tends to be very gentle on the rear tires, but when we encounter graining on the front, we’re aggressive, and that made us a bit uneasy.”
Ferrari, for its part, knew it could rely on a car that was equally good at preserving rear traction, but more importantly, effective in managing front graining. This strength had already emerged in convincing performances in Las Vegas in 2023 and in Melbourne at the start of the season. The Scuderia thus felt confident enough to opt for a more aerodynamically unloaded configuration compared to McLaren, which abandoned its new rear wing brought to Monza in favor of the Spa-spec on Friday afternoon.
The race
Saturday’s qualifying and the chaotic start, marked by George Russell’s mistake at the Prima Variante, set up a direct showdown between Ferrari and McLaren. The excellent competitiveness of the Ferrari was immediately apparent, with Leclerc able to stay close to Oscar Piastri for about ten laps despite the dirty air. “I think today Leclerc was as fast as the McLarens,” Andrea Stella acknowledged. However, the initial aggressiveness of the Monegasque driver cost him more tire degradation, as he began to lose half a second per lap once he fell out of DRS range.
The Ferrari pit wall remained unfazed, confident in the SF-24’s excellent pace and potential, as well as the difficulties faced by their rivals. “The race was strange because we started out planning for a one-stop strategy, but then McLaren pushed harder than expected in the first stint,” Vasseur explained. “Lando Norris struggled before we did, to the point that he had to go for a two-stop strategy. We decided to cover him and stay on the same strategy because at that point, we felt we had an advantage with the tires.”
Change of plans
After the first round of stops, the two McLarens continued at an aggressive pace, intending to pit again. Piastri’s pace was telling, as for 9 of the 20 laps in the second stint, he was consistently between 1’23’’0 and 1’23’’2, driving aggressively and making a second tire change inevitable. “In hindsight, particularly with Piastri, if after the first pit stop we had driven the car with a single stop as the goal, I think victory would have been possible,” Andrea Stella analyzed.
Initially, Ferrari adapted to McLaren’s plan for a second pit stop, but soon realized they had enough control over the graining to make it to the end. Leclerc maintained a more cautious pace than his competitors, consistently lapping between 1’23’’6 and 1’23’’7, only dropping to 1’23’’2-1’23’’3 on six occasions, but not before being certain that a single stop was feasible. “The advantage was such that after ten laps on the hard tires, it was clear to us that we could make it to the end. You never know, because there can always be a drop-off, but that didn’t happen,” Vasseur revealed.
It was almost a gamble, but it was the uncertainty that played in Charles Leclerc‘s favor, preventing him from being overly conservative like his teammate. “Perhaps Sainz realized a bit earlier that a single stop was possible and cautiously pushed less. Often, you end up wondering why you didn’t push more,” the Team Principal explained. Another small help for Leclerc came from the sky, with clouds cooling the track by about ten degrees compared to the start, reducing overheating, slipping, and tire graining. The final result was another historic victory for Ferrari on their home track.
Red Bull in crisis
Ferrari’s joy was contrasted by Max Verstappen’s resignation, who didn’t hesitate to call his RB20 “undriveable.” According to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner, the European season exposed an intrinsic problem in the car that had been present since the start of the year but had not yet come to light. Development has progressively “disconnected the two axles” of the RB20, leaving the car unwilling to turn. The drivers had no choice but to apply more steering angle, exacerbating front-end overheating and generating more understeer, in a vicious cycle that worsens if graining also occurs, as it did at Monza.
Christian Horner mentioned a problem only visible on the track, with the world champions using Friday at Monza to compare the latest floor with the one from the start of the season. “Our wind tunnel doesn’t show it, but the track says otherwise.” Monza represented the perfect storm for Red Bull, with the mix of slow and fast corners making it even harder to find the right balance for all speeds.
Adding to this was the lowest downforce setup of the year. “Running with more downforce might help hide the balance issues we have,” reflected the Team Principal. The world champions also face dwindling development resources. The absence of a low-downforce wing at Monza will be felt again, especially with the fast tracks of Baku and Las Vegas still on the calendar.
Open championship
The Monza result outlines a constructors’ championship that is wide open, with three teams separated by about forty points. The next races will be in Baku and Singapore, two street circuits with slow and low-speed corners where Ferrari excelled at the start of the year and which might also help Red Bull with its balance issues, though not with the difficulties over curbs highlighted in Monaco. McLaren, however, doesn’t fear the challenge of Baku’s straights and Las Vegas afterward. “Before Monza, we were cautious, but now I think McLaren can compete even on tracks where we weren’t competitive last year,” acknowledged Andrea Stella. Mercedes will play the role of the fourth contender, underwhelming at Monza but ready to climb back up in a championship full of twists and turns, never so exciting.
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