The Scenarios: This weekend in Bahrain, a very important meeting is scheduled regarding the future of F1 engines. Next year, the new regulations will debut without the MGU-H, a system that has only been introduced to F1 by Audi, with Cadillac expected to join the grid as an independent engine supplier. Currently, five engine manufacturers are set to participate in F1 for 2026: Ferrari, Mercedes, Audi, Honda, and Red Bull, as Renault has closed its 2026 project following Alpine’s decision to become a Mercedes customer starting in 2026.
In order to alter the decisions that have already been made, a ‘super-majority’ of four out of five engine manufacturers would be required to change the current plans, which, remember, foresee a five-year duration for the next technical engine cycle, from 2026 to 2030. Stefano Domenicali and Mohammed Ben Sulayem have started advocating for a return to naturally aspirated V10 engines powered by sustainable fuels, and the meeting in Sakhir is ‘exploratory’ to gauge whether engine manufacturers might be open to advancing this scenario before 2031.
The proposal to extend the competitive lifespan of the current power units by two years to switch to V10 engines by 2028 is not feasible because Audi would not have an engine ready, and Mercedes would not be able to supply its customer teams, having already calibrated production in anticipation of the new regulations. Furthermore, the FIA cannot afford to ‘lose face’ with manufacturers who have already invested at least $300 million in the 2026 engines, as it would undermine their credibility in future negotiations. For this reason, Mohammed Ben Sulayem has tasked Nick Tombazis with studying a compromise that would be acceptable to all parties involved, to ensure a ‘transition’ without excessive friction between the 2026 regulations and future changes.
German outlet Auto Motor und Sport reports what seems to be the real goal of the V10 engine supporters (with Ferrari and Red Bull apparently forming the core of this group, though Honda’s position remains unclear, with some believing the Japanese giant is behind on the 2026 engine while others feel they are getting back on track). According to the German media, Ferrari and Red Bull are concerned they won’t be competitive against other teams, especially Mercedes. The V10 proponents have a completely different plan: to use the proposal for a ten-cylinder engine as a means of pushing for something entirely different than what was initially agreed. Under the 2026 regulations, the engine power split between the thermal and electric components is set to be 55:45. The goal is to push for a ratio of 80:20 or 70:30, at least at the start of the new era, to allow time to catch up on the electric side (as mentioned before, a four-out-of-five majority is needed, effectively isolating Mercedes).
One argument the engine manufacturers behind in the electric component are using is safety: according to some estimates, on-track situations could arise where the power difference between a car in full performance mode and one in the process of ‘recovering/recharging energy’ could be as much as 1000 to 550 horsepower. This scenario has been labeled as ‘unlikely’ by various engineers, as energy recovery strategies are expected to converge and become similar. However, the safety argument serves as a shortcut to change the terms (requiring a super-majority of four out of five engine manufacturers). The 2026 Formula 1 season is rapidly approaching, and those who feel they are behind on next season’s power units no longer have much time to gain victories or political concessions. The ‘Engine GP’ in Bahrain will be as important as the race on track.
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