F1Canada GP strategy analysis: Ferrari off the radar but two stops avoid embarrassment. Ferrari lacked pace at the Canadian GP and remained off the radar throughout the race.

The Canadian Grand Prix on the beautiful Montreal circuit gave us an unexpected but very welcome result. The Italian Andrea Kimi Antonelli achieved his first career podium, and at least we saw a different outcome than usual, even if influenced by circumstances.

Mercedes secured a very important double podium that brought them back to second place in the constructors’ standings thanks to an excellent qualifying performance on Saturday and their ability to replicate the strong race pace shown on Friday, matching Red Bull and McLaren (read here). The Soft C6, after showing behavior similar to Imola, was almost completely ignored during the race. Piastri, Bearman, Stroll, and Hadjar used it behind the Safety Car only hoping the race would resume for even a single lap. Medium and Hard tires were clearly the best compounds, especially the white C4.

The recap
Before analyzing the situation in detail, let’s recap the strategies seen in the race. As we mentioned on Sunday morning, we knew that a two-stop strategy would guarantee the best chance of success. We thought that if high degradation appeared, three stops could have been considered (read here). This path was perhaps initially followed by Verstappen and those who copied his early first stop, but as the track rubbered in, degradation was more controlled and strategies aligned on two stops.

The most common tactic was Medium-Hard-Hard, used by Russell, Verstappen, Antonelli, Piastri, Hamilton, and Alonso. Then there was Hard-Hard-Medium by Leclerc and Stroll, alongside Hard-Medium-Hard which Norris was on before his crash. Behind the Safety Car, Piastri, given his large gap on Leclerc, chose Soft tires in case the race resumed, but in the end, there was no time to restart, and the race finished behind the safety car.

Others at the back all went for a one-stop strategy. Medium-Hard for Hulkenberg (points scorer), Bearman, Colapinto, and Hadjar; Hard-Medium for Ocon and Sainz (points scorers), Tsunoda, Bortoleto, and Gasly. Retirements: Norris, Lawson, and Albon.

Final comment from Mario Isola (Pirelli Motorsport Director): “The two-stop strategy confirmed itself as the fastest, and Hard was the most performing compound. A single stop was possible but only for those starting from the back with less to lose. Front runners could push in every stint, resulting in an intense race with significant differences in stint length.”

“This was the third weekend of the year with the C6. We will carefully analyze the collected data to evaluate if and how to use it later in the season after the summer break. Having a wider range allowed us to offer teams more strategic options. Honestly, without the C6, in Montreal we would have brought the same trio as in 2024 (C3, C4, and C5) and likely witnessed a much more straightforward race with only one pit stop,” Isola concluded, defending the weekend’s choice.

Three Teams Within Six Seconds, Ferrari Off the Radar
The GP unfolded along the lines seen in FP2 (read here). George led, but only by a handful of thousandths ahead of Verstappen and McLaren. Very important for Kimi was passing Oscar Piastri at the start. Was McLaren’s race lackluster? Not entirely. Oscar Piastri finished fourth, comfortably so. With a significant lead over Max Verstappen in the championship, there was no reason to take risks, especially with Norris behind. If anyone had to take risks, it was Lando, and we saw how that ended.

McLaren had pace but paid for poor qualifying and a bad start. If they hadn’t been fast, they wouldn’t have kept close to the cars ahead all race. Just before Norris’s crash, there were barely six seconds separating leader Russell from Lando in P5.

Ferrari, on the other hand, was off the radar the entire time. Hamilton was unlucky hitting a marmot in the first stint, causing significant downforce loss and then brake problems. Leclerc quickly recovered from P8 on the grid to reach the McLarens but then had to concede a disheartening truth: he didn’t have the pace to keep up. This is shown by the roughly 12-second gap he had to Norris shortly before the crash. There’s no sugarcoating it— the SF-25 lacks pace, and in this condition, finishing behind the three teams ahead was all they could do.

Two Stops ‘Save Face’ for Ferrari and Charles Leclerc
Starting on Hard tires, when Charles Leclerc saw everyone stopping early for the first pit stop and noticed he was only 4-5 tenths slower per lap than those who stopped, he asked the team for a one-stop strategy. Ferrari’s engineers, however, ignored him, and Charles Leclerc immediately showed his disagreement.

On the microphones, the number 16 driver kept repeating his point of view, but we agree that if he had attempted the one-stop path, the Ferrari driver would have essentially faced an embarrassment. Ferrari lacked pace, and even matching rivals’ strategies showed a pace below competition level.

Around laps 24-26, Charles asked to try to finish the race with a one-stop strategy. Even then, Russell was 4-5 tenths faster per lap, and at lap 27 George overtook the Ferrari. Probably the Monegasque thought he could resist the drivers behind, which is questionable, but when others put on a third set of tires and Charles had to finish on Mediums, the pace difference would have been much greater, and he would have been easily overtaken by the first five, in a rather humiliating way. We believe Ferrari made the right call, at least allowing him to ‘save face’.