The Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix weekend is set to represent a crucial turning point for the continuation of the 2025 season. It will not only be the technical upgrades introduced on track that could reshape the competitive order seen in the opening races, but also the data collected at the end of the event. In fact, once the chequered flag falls in Miami, the performance levels of the power units across the first four Grands Prix of the season will be effectively locked in, officially triggering the evaluation process defined under the ADUO framework.
Following the race in Florida, the FIA will calculate the average performance of the internal combustion engines used by Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull, Honda and Audi, based on the data gathered from Melbourne through to Miami. The governing body will then have a two-race window to communicate the final competitive picture, with confirmation expected shortly before or during the Monaco Grand Prix weekend.
Once the reference internal combustion engine has been identified — with the Mercedes V6 widely considered the benchmark within the paddock — the FIA will assess whether any manufacturers are facing a performance deficit exceeding 2% or 4%. These thresholds are critical, as they determine whether a manufacturer is allowed to introduce one or two engine updates aimed at closing the performance gap.
The effects of ADUO unlikely before July
From the Spanish Grand Prix onward, engine manufacturers who receive approval will be permitted to introduce updates to their V6 power units. However, it remains highly unlikely that new specifications will appear on track before July. Several factors contribute to this delay, starting with the cost cap regulations that tightly control development spending.
The ADUO mechanism does not simply grant technical permission for upgrades — it also includes provisions for additional budget allocation to cover development costs. This financial aspect is far from secondary and plays a decisive role in determining when manufacturers can realistically begin their upgrade programs.
In the case of Honda, whose performance gap is widely believed to be around the 4% mark, development work may already be underway. The situation differs for other engine suppliers, which are thought to be closer to the 2% threshold. These manufacturers are unlikely to have initiated major spending programs without confirmation of the extra budget allowance. While development plans are probably prepared, the final green light will only come once the FIA makes its official announcement.
Another key factor influencing timelines is the limitation on the number of internal combustion engines allowed per season, which is set at four units. This restriction means that the introduction of an updated specification must be carefully planned. Last season, Ferrari introduced its second power unit in Saudi Arabia, the fifth race of the year, while McLaren and Mercedes waited until Miami, the sixth round.
Looking at the current calendar, it is likely that the second power unit will be introduced in Canada. The Monaco Grand Prix, traditionally less demanding in terms of engine performance, could therefore be contested using the first power unit of the season.
Manufacturers that are granted permission to update their internal combustion engines may choose to apply those changes directly to their third power unit. Such a strategy would allow teams to accelerate the use of the upgraded specification, while rotating older units during free practice sessions or at circuits where outright power is less critical. Under this scenario, the updated PU3 is expected to make its debut between the British Grand Prix at Silverstone on July 5 and the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps on July 19.
After the Belgian Grand Prix, the FIA will carry out a new performance evaluation of the V6 engines, this time based on the data collected from the Canadian Grand Prix onward. This second assessment could further influence the competitive balance in the latter stages of the season.
Strategies and potential scenarios
It remains to be seen how the technical hierarchy will evolve over the course of the season. Within the paddock, some insiders speculate that after Miami there could be instances of “sandbagging” from the current benchmark in internal combustion engine performance — namely Mercedes.
While it is reasonable to expect direct rivals to make gains as the season progresses, more subtle strategies cannot be ruled out. A manufacturer with a development package capable of delivering a significant performance boost might be tempted to temporarily reduce the output of its current engine. By doing so, it could fall within the 2% performance window after Spa and secure approval for further upgrades.
Much will depend on the situation in the championship standings. If a team has built a comfortable margin, sacrificing short-term results could prove to be a strategic decision that pays off over the medium to long term.
With the ADUO system now approaching its first real test, it is clear that introducing a recovery mechanism for underperforming engine manufacturers was a forward-thinking decision. The lessons of 2014 remain fresh: at that time, Mercedes’ rivals were forced to cope with a massive performance deficit without any possibility of intervention due to the engine freeze regulations. It was a clear flaw in the system — one that, fortunately, has not been repeated in the current era of Formula 1.
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