The first day of free practice at Abu Dhabi largely confirmed the anticipated hierarchy, with McLaren leading the pack due to a well-rounded car that excelled across all sectors, leaving others trailing behind.
To suggest that McLaren has opened a gap on this last Friday of the season wouldn’t be far from reality. However, there are interesting aspects to analyze and understand from the first two practice sessions. Nonetheless, Woking’s team has undoubtedly started the weekend on the right foot—not only in terms of performance but also in the Constructors’ battle. In contrast, Ferrari faces a steeper climb.
Beyond the track characteristics and the SF-24’s chronic issues in heating the softer tires, Ferrari must also contend with a penalty for replacing the battery on Charles Leclerc’s car, resulting in a 10-place grid drop. Ferrari starts the weekend on the back foot, as do Mercedes and, surprisingly, Red Bull.
The Milton Keynes squad began the weekend with familiar issues, struggling to optimize tire performance and balance. Their RB20 appears to lack front-end confidence for the drivers and faces traction difficulties. Marko expressed hope for a turnaround, akin to their progress in Qatar.
McLaren’s Competitive Edge Lies in an Effective Front End
One certainty from Friday’s analysis is McLaren’s competitiveness in both single-lap and long-run performance, where they seemed strongest on both fronts. All signs from Yas Marina point unmistakably to McLaren, with the MCL38 standing out in nearly all areas. The data shows that McLaren has an even greater advantage in slower sections, where the other top teams struggled to close the gap.
As highlighted throughout the season, McLaren has perhaps made the most significant strides among the top teams. Last year, they struggled with a front end that couldn’t handle slow corners, suffering from chronic understeer. On a day when many teams lacked front-end sharpness, McLaren turned this element into a key strength.
Another standout factor is McLaren’s ability to bring tires up to temperature more effectively than their rivals, noticeable as early as Turn 1, where Norris was the fastest, followed closely by Piastri. This isn’t a complete surprise, as the MCL38’s advantage in initial cornering was already evident in Qatar. In Turn 3, despite its bumpy surface, McLaren also excelled, although they fell slightly short in the exit toward Turn 5, where engine mapping might be a limiting factor.
By Friday, McLaren seemed clear on their setup direction, opting for a low-downforce “V” rear wing. Interestingly, despite this choice, the car didn’t suffer from excessive rear-end sliding on single laps, allowing both McLarens to set the fastest times in the final sector. Engine performance conclusions are harder to draw on Fridays, but the McLaren package looks strong, especially in acceleration, up to the point where the engine cuts at the end of straights.
In summary, McLaren showcased excellent overall balance, particularly with a sharp front end. While the gap to rivals may not remain as large as seen on Friday, McLaren emerges as the clear favorite for both single laps and long runs. Notably, Norris adopted a conservative approach to his long run to manage graining risks, while Piastri pushed harder without significant tire degradation.
Ferrari’s Struggles with the Soft Tire Persist
Carlos Sainz summed up Ferrari’s Friday best: McLaren isn’t unreachable, but the gap seen today doesn’t fully reflect the car’s potential. As seen before, Ferrari’s recurring issue lies in extracting performance from the soft tires, particularly in finding the final few tenths.
Sainz believes that the current half-second gap to the front could shrink to 2-3 tenths if Ferrari optimizes its window. Leclerc’s absence from the equation due to traffic during his warm-up lap also clouds the full picture.
Nevertheless, Ferrari’s struggles begin as early as Turn 1, with difficulty heating tires, and continue through slow sections, particularly Turn 5 and the third sector. Medium-to-high-speed corners like Turn 3 also expose weaknesses in grip, creating a cascading effect tied to tire and car characteristics.
In Abu Dhabi, Ferrari opted for a medium-downforce wing paired with a single-profile beam wing. It will be interesting to see how this choice impacts engine performance in qualifying, especially given the noticeable difference in progression, rather than outright top speed, favoring McLaren.
Ferrari’s long runs also present challenges. Charles Leclerc began his stint on used medium tires with 10 laps already completed. Although the distance covered was comparable to other teams, Ferrari had pushed an extra lap, resulting in early graining complaints from Leclerc. Despite this, his pace remained consistent. Sainz, on the other hand, started his stint slow but picked up competitive pace toward the end.
Mercedes as the Third Threat, Red Bull Seeking Answers
Mercedes aims to build on momentum from recent races, benefiting from track and environmental conditions. Encouragingly, the W15 didn’t suffer excessive bouncing on Abu Dhabi’s smooth surface, allowing for a low and stiff setup.
Lewis Hamilton appeared in good form, aided by a stable rear end, unlike his teammate, who tested experimental setups. This contributed to Mercedes managing elevated temperatures better than in previous races.
The gap between Ferrari and Mercedes remains small, reflecting a balance in strengths and weaknesses. The W15 heats tires more effectively, gaining an edge in early corners, while Ferrari shows stronger traction elsewhere.
Russell tested experimental setups, focusing on fine-tuning for qualifying. He views Ferrari as the primary competitor rather than McLaren. In race pace, Mercedes appeared closest to McLaren, though Hamilton’s aggressive long-run times (in the low 1:29s) stood out. In contrast, George Russell’s times aligned more closely with Ferrari’s.
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