Suzuka delivers a verdict: truth and illusions for teams and Formula 1
The Suzuka race marked a key milestone in the current Formula 1 season. The demanding Japanese circuit highlighted several crucial technical aspects, both of the current regulations and of the individual teams. After a qualifying session that proved extremely disappointing from a spectacle standpoint, voices in the paddock now seem to align in calling for immediate changes—at least for qualifying—given how restrictive the current rules are for driver expression and how difficult they make performance to follow for viewers.
In contrast, the race itself was enjoyable, albeit with more than one asterisk attached. The first, and most important, is that much of the on-track action stemmed from the poor starts of the two Mercedes drivers, who were then forced into recovery drives that generated a large part of the excitement at the front. The second is that, as anticipated since the opening round of the season, the “yo-yo” effect of overtakes and counter-overtakes—caused by differing energy deployment strategies—quickly faded once drivers realized that making the first move, often into the chicane, was effectively pointless, as it left them vulnerable on the main straight.
The only truly positive aspect of these new regulations lies in the combination of lower downforce aerodynamics, smaller and lighter cars, and an overtake mode that can be used for most of the lap—far more powerful than the old DRS. This allows cars to follow each other closely for multiple laps, encouraging wheel-to-wheel battles. Suzuka’s historical difficulty in overtaking, partially mitigated by these factors, produced a generally entertaining level of racing. However, this could likely be achieved even without the extremes of the current 50-50 hybrid system, the need for super clipping, and other problematic elements seen so far this season.
Antonelli: a weekend of growing maturity
The victory of Andrea Kimi Antonelli certainly came with significant help from the Safety Car, but it was the culmination of a weekend in which the Italian driver consistently appeared as the fastest on track. He outperformed his teammate in almost every practice session and in qualifying, and quickly recovered ground after a poor start in the race.
Antonelli’s approach now appears calmer, with less urgency compared to earlier races. The initial excitement following his first victory in China has already settled, and his tone in interviews has become more analytical and focused. He no longer seems driven by the need to prove his worth, but instead appears determined and fully concentrated on his work—something he clearly executes with great talent.
A comment from Toto Wolff, who stated that Antonelli’s victory was particularly meaningful because it came on a driver-focused circuit, indirectly places George Russell in a less favorable position within the team. While the British driver has never particularly excelled at Suzuka, never before has he appeared so consistently outperformed by Antonelli over the past two seasons.
Although George Russell has repeatedly claimed that he would have won the race without the Safety Car, doubts remain as to whether he would have been able to overtake Oscar Piastri. Russell struggled with a setup issue related to rear stiffness from qualifying onward, which limited his traction out of the chicane. This significantly reduced his options in close battles: using energy on the long straight toward the chicane left him exposed to the yo-yo effect on the main straight, while insufficient traction prevented him from launching attacks where it mattered most. As a result, he found himself trapped in this cycle for much of the race.
McLaren: partial resurgence, but watch the future
Oscar Piastri delivered an outstanding performance, arguably one of his best even compared to last season when he was fighting for the title. Strong in wheel-to-wheel battles, consistent in race pace, and sharp at the start, the Australian fully deserved his second-place finish and could have realistically challenged for victory without the Safety Car intervention.
There is a growing narrative around a “McLaren step forward,” but this too comes with an important caveat. The Suzuka race was run on hard compounds and on a completely new asphalt surface, which effectively eliminated tire degradation and graining—two of the main weaknesses of the Woking car from a chassis perspective.
In fact, the only driver to experience a hint of graining was Piastri himself, confirming that this remains a vulnerability. Improvements in car weight and a better understanding of the Mercedes power unit helped compensate for the lack of aerodynamic load. With tire issues largely absent, the race reflected a hierarchy similar to what had already been seen in qualifying during the early rounds, allowing McLaren to emerge as the second-fastest team.
The impression is that McLaren’s resurgence at Suzuka is only partially real. At the same time, it is important to note that no major updates have yet been introduced by Andrea Stella’s team. McLaren is still running a car very close to the Barcelona specification of the MCL40. This means that, if Suzuka represented only a partial step forward, the significant upgrades expected for Miami could place Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri in a position to fight for victories.
Ferrari: Suzuka exposes power unit limitations
Turning to Ferrari, it is important to highlight the outstanding performance of Charles Leclerc, who secured a podium finish after a demanding and complex race that required intense on-track battles. Notably, all three drivers on the podium convincingly outperformed their respective teammates, including Charles Leclerc against Lewis Hamilton, who struggled throughout the race to find the right balance in energy management.
Data from the Japanese weekend clearly revealed a Ferrari power unit that lacks the outright performance of its rivals. The deficit is evident both in the internal combustion engine and in the hybrid system. Reduced engine power results in slower and less effective battery recharge, particularly during super clipping phases or dedicated recovery sections.
Additionally, torque delivery in traction phases—especially uphill or through semi-corner sections like those at Suzuka—often proved insufficient, particularly with high fuel loads. This is despite the smaller turbocharger, which had previously helped in such situations. The limitations of the thermal component are compounded by an electric system that is constantly under strain and further affected by suboptimal software management, particularly in energy deployment.
In this context, Charles Leclerc’s performance stands out even more. Kimi Antonelli himself explained that once he reached the Ferrari driver, overtaking became extremely difficult because Charles Leclerc used his energy strategically in all the key sections of the track. From his interviews, it is clear that Charles Leclerc is investing significant effort into understanding these complex power units and finding effective solutions—something that goes against his natural driving instincts but proved highly effective at Suzuka.
On the final lap, George Russell attempted an all-out attack, reaching speeds of up to 347 km/h on the back straight. However, Charles Leclerc managed his energy differently compared to previous laps, setting the fastest overall time in the middle sector and creating just enough gap to remain out of reach. This episode highlights the extreme complexity drivers must manage under the current regulations.
The SF-26 also suffers from relatively high drag, which explains Ferrari’s early focus on solutions like the so-called “Macarena wing.” However, from a chassis perspective, the Japanese Grand Prix confirmed the overall strength of the Maranello car. The real challenge for Frederic Vasseur and his team is that, despite major updates expected from Miami, no significant gains can be made on the power unit side until the introduction of the ADUO. At present, the engine remains the most decisive performance factor.
A moment for reflection
Finally, it is impossible to ignore the incident involving Oliver Bearman, who crashed while attempting to avoid Franco Colapinto, who was significantly slower on the straight. Data suggests that Colapinto did not slow unusually on that lap, but rather that the two drivers had been running very different energy management strategies for several laps, resulting in a major speed differential at that point on the track.
Colapinto’s move to the left contributed to the situation, leading to a heavy crash for the Haas driver, fortunately without serious consequences. This incident is likely to become a central topic in upcoming discussions between teams and the FIA, particularly regarding potential regulatory changes ahead of the Miami Grand Prix.
There is a strong expectation that immediate adjustments will be made—at least for qualifying—in an attempt to restore a greater role for driver skill, possibly through a reduction in maximum electric power. However, it remains unclear what changes, if any, will be introduced for race conditions.
Suzuka therefore proved that while the 2026 cars allow for closer following, the “yo-yo” energy battle and massive speed deltas are creating a dangerous and often artificial environment. Based on the data, the focus now shifts to Miami, where Ferrari and McLaren’s aero updates will go head-to-head against the superior Mercedes engine.
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