Formula 1 in 2024 continues to surprise and make any kind of prediction unreliable. The Italian Grand Prix at the 5.793-kilometre Autodromo Nazionale Monza was an intense race, with a high-tension finale that certainly gave Ferrari fans, and not just them (except McLaren fans), anxiety and pleasure. The victory of the Maranello team in their home race is undoubtedly a breath of fresh air for the entire team, even though it might not have come in the way the engineers and drivers of the red team had hoped. Ferrari immediately gave the impression of aiming for something more than usual in their home Grand Prix, perhaps to try to salvage a 2024 Formula 1 championship in front of their fans, knowing that some structural limitations of the SF24 cannot be corrected before the next season. A completely new lower aerodynamics arrived at Monza, accompanied by some modifications to the upper aerodynamics and a dedicated set of wings.
If the effort for the wings is widely understandable, the race against time for the floor and diffuser, which among other things bring more downforce, on a track where the ideal downforce is minimal, might almost appear unjustified, except by a serious will to have all possible cards to do well in the home race.
The high expectations were also visible on Charles Leclerc’s face after the qualifying session, with the Monegasque visibly disappointed with fourth place, even though it was just a tenth behind Lando Norris’s pole position time. The impression is that the hopes for the red team were to be able to even surpass McLaren, at least on an atypical track like Monza, but the rival Woking team appeared once again very strong. However, the meticulously prepared race offered Ferrari some opportunities that the engineers on the pit wall and Charles Leclerc managed to exploit in the best possible way.
We have said and emphasized several times how the two SF24 cars went on track with an extremely low downforce setup, but on a track whose new asphalt was particularly prone to graining, the intuitive conclusion would have been that this choice risked becoming a disadvantage in terms of race pace, with tire sliding that could potentially trigger the formation of graining much earlier than more downforce-heavy cars like McLaren and Mercedes. However, Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur during interviews after qualifying expressed no doubts, stating that the low downforce would actually be an advantage in the race, and the facts undoubtedly proved him right. The low downforce setup turned into a winning weapon, with tire degradation absolutely under control, unlike, for example, McLaren with Norris who found himself struggling with managing the front left, and Oscar Piastri who didn’t feel up to trying to stay on track with just one stop.
This is not the first time we have seen something like this happen with this generation of cars and tires. Just think of the last race in the Netherlands, where it was precisely the low-downforce setups that proved most rewarding in the race. The reality is that the key is a setup that brings and keeps the tires in the correct operating window, allowing consistent exploitation of the tire’s peak grip. At that point, any higher level of aerodynamic load becomes useless and even harmful, as it risks ruining these balances. Not only that: the extremely smooth asphalt of the track provided an important adhesive grip component, which becomes a multiplier of the grip level and, at that point, reduces sliding without the need for additional downforce. In this aspect, the rubbering of the track surface plays an important role, and it was certainly not easy to predict when the track conditions would allow for a stint without collapse. Ferrari’s strategy was a complicated and subtle calculation, starting from the Maranello engineers’ simulations at the factory, and it turned out to be masterfully executed, with all the variables aligned at the most crucial moment. The situation was so on edge that the mere 5 extra laps Carlos Sainz did in the first stint, precisely to have more margin in the one-stop strategy, made the difference between victory and fourth place, off the podium.
Of course, to execute such a plan, you also need a driver capable of carrying it out, and Charles Leclerc’s race was a masterpiece. The Monegasque, with his second victory at the Monza circuit in front of the Tifosi, put a definitive seal on his tire management skills, which have improved more and more to the current high level, with excellent sensitivity both in continuous tire management and in realizing that, once Oscar Piastri pitted and he was left in clean air, his tires began to clear from graining and come back to life, setting the stage for what would become the winning strategy. The telemetry data related to Charles Leclerc final stint is something to be framed for its consistency and total absence of tire collapse, with a standard deviation in lap times of just 0.250 over a total stint of 38 laps, something truly extraordinary.
Looking at McLaren, it must be said that they also partly spoiled their own race, with a total lack of team orders that is sometimes hard to understand. Oscar Piastri’s overtaking of Lando Norris on the outside at Roggia was splendid but had negative consequences for the team and posed a significant risk of a spin for the Englishman (similar to what happened to Sebastian Vettel in 2018, as we still remember very well). In any case, what was seen on track was an MCL38 slightly faster than the Ferrari, although with a decidedly smaller gap than seen at Zandvoort, between a tenth and a tenth and a half, but with suboptimal tire management, so much so that the one-stop option was proposed to both drivers during the race, receiving a firm refusal in response. Interestingly, in the first race where McLaren didn’t seem perfect on tires, Oscar Piastri delivered a better overall performance (even in terms of management) than Lando Norris for the first time, something we had not seen him do throughout an entire Grand Prix until now. McLaren’s performance, still fighting at the front and potentially winning without Ferrari’s stroke of genius, once again highlights the incredible technical completeness of the Woking car, now the benchmark to beat on all tracks.
One of the keys to Ferrari’s chance was also the lack of pressure from behind, with Mercedes never being able to attack Ferrari throughout the Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton lacked just a tenth of pace compared to Carlos Sainz, and George Russell’s “suicidal” start prevented him from even trying to defend with track position, leaving Charles Leclerc practically free of risks. The good balance shown by the W15 single-seaters seemed to pay the price of a slightly too high level of downforce and low efficiency in these setup conditions. Finally, coming to the incredible and unexpected fourth force of the race, namely Red Bull, the situation is objectively becoming more serious. During the Italian Grand Prix weekend, nothing worked for the Milton Keynes team: low top speed, significant tire degradation, Power Unit problems, suboptimal strategy, pit stop errors. Compared to the standards of a few weeks ago, Christian Horner’s team no longer seems the same, and Max Verstappen’s comments after the race were clear in stating that what needs to be done is to completely change the car.
Certainly, seeing how to save some budget, the Red Bull engineers simply “trimmed” the rear wing this weekend without developing a dedicated one, the opportunities for major revolutions, after the many packages already introduced, don’t seem many. This can only be worrying even for 2025, as the cars will be evolutions of this year’s model. The end of the 2024 Formula 1 season, however, remains to be seen after a beautiful Sunday (one could finally say) for Ferrari fans.
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