Ferrari arrives in Monaco carrying the unexpected label of favourite. But is that simply media hype, or is there a solid technical basis behind the prediction?
Formula 1 returns to action after the Canadian Grand Prix for one of the most iconic and prestigious events on the entire calendar: the Monaco Grand Prix. The streets of Monte Carlo will once again provide a completely unique challenge, both in terms of the competitive hierarchy and the technical solutions adopted by the teams, with engineers expected to push their cars towards some of the most extreme setup configurations seen all season.
Many media outlets have portrayed Ferrari as the team to beat this weekend, although that assessment may be overly simplistic and perhaps too optimistic for Ferrari supporters. Mercedes have dominated the opening phase of the 2026 Formula 1 season, winning the first five races and establishing themselves as the benchmark team. However, Monaco could represent a rare exception to the trend established so far and perhaps Ferrari’s best opportunity to challenge for victory before the arrival of its upgraded power unit package later in the campaign.
The Principality has often produced unexpected results over the years. Monaco is one of the few circuits where outright power and aerodynamic efficiency become less decisive than precision, confidence and mechanical performance. As a consequence, the traditional competitive order can occasionally be reshuffled, creating opportunities for teams that may have struggled elsewhere.
F1 Monaco GP: Ferrari king of the slow corners?
The story of the season so far has been remarkably consistent. While the Mercedes W17 has benefited from a power unit that excels in electrical energy management and deployment efficiency, the Ferrari SF-26 has repeatedly demonstrated strong performance through technical and slower sections of circuits, where chassis quality and mechanical balance play a much greater role than outright power.
Lewis Hamilton himself highlighted earlier in the season, during the Chinese Grand Prix weekend, that the Ferrari was among the strongest cars in corners, albeit in a broad and somewhat generalized sense. That observation reflected one of the SF-26’s most evident strengths throughout the opening rounds of the championship. However, Monaco’s unique nature must always be considered before drawing definitive conclusions. Cars operate within an aerodynamic and mechanical window unlike any other circuit on the Formula 1 calendar, often producing performance levels that do not necessarily follow the trends established elsewhere during the season.
Last year, despite the SF-25 being limited by several mechanical shortcomings, Ferrari managed to exploit the lower aerodynamic load requirements of Monaco to run the car at lower ride heights than would have been possible at most other venues, maximizing the overall performance package available. This characteristic allowed the car to perform more competitively than expected in the slow-speed environment of Monte Carlo.
At Monaco, outright aerodynamic downforce is less important than mechanical grip due to the low-speed nature of the circuit. The ability to ride kerbs effectively, absorb bumps and maximize tyre contact with the asphalt becomes increasingly important throughout the lap.
Teams therefore adopt their softest setups of the entire season. By adjusting torsion bars, anti-roll bars and dampers, engineers focus on maximizing the car’s ability to absorb imperfections in the road surface and maintain consistent tyre contact with the tarmac. The objective is not necessarily to generate more aerodynamic load, but rather to create a platform that inspires confidence through Monaco’s narrow and unforgiving streets.
For this reason, the work carried out on Lewis Hamilton’s side of the Ferrari garage during the Canadian Grand Prix weekend could prove particularly relevant, although Monaco’s unique characteristics must still be taken into account when drawing comparisons between the two circuits.
According to reports from Motorsport, Lewis Hamilton improved his confidence in the SF-26 through mechanical setup changes, especially involving camber settings. While those modifications reportedly reduced confidence under braking, they improved the overall behaviour and balance of the car through several phases of the corner. These reports should naturally be treated with caution, but they remain an interesting indication of Ferrari’s ongoing efforts to unlock additional performance from the SF-26.
The reduced importance of battery recharging around Monaco should once again highlight the cars’ braking capabilities, even though the circuit features relatively few heavy braking zones. The Nouvelle Chicane after the tunnel remains the most significant braking point on the circuit, while many of the remaining corners require precision and rotation rather than maximum stopping power.
The problems experienced by Charles Leclerc in Canada should also disappear at his home race. Those difficulties were likely linked to the cooler Canadian temperatures and challenges in bringing the tyres into the correct operating window, issues largely influenced by the specific layout characteristics of the Montreal circuit. Monaco presents a completely different challenge. Track evolution is generally significant throughout the weekend, temperatures are often higher and the demands placed upon the tyres differ considerably. For these reasons, Charles Leclerc is expected to approach his home Grand Prix under much more favourable conditions than those encountered in Canada.
On paper, Ferrari’s power unit philosophy appears particularly well suited to Monaco. The SF-26 has generally shown strong traction throughout the season, even if rear-end stability has occasionally been inconsistent. Its performance has also been influenced by deployment strategies determined by the architecture of the Ferrari engine and the management choices made by the engineers.
A strong launch from low-speed corners has often been one of Ferrari’s strengths in 2026, even if that advantage has sometimes been offset by limitations in other areas of performance. Monaco’s layout could therefore place greater emphasis on one of the car’s most positive characteristics.
A great deal will depend on preparation during qualifying laps and the implementation of strategies specifically designed for Monaco. The C3, C4 and C5 tyre compounds will be difficult to bring into their ideal operating range due to the absence of long, loaded corners that normally help generate tyre temperature.
Traffic management and track evolution will once again play a decisive role throughout the weekend. Finding clear air during qualifying has always been one of Monaco’s greatest challenges, while the constantly improving grip levels can significantly alter performance between sessions and even between consecutive runs.
F1 Monaco GP: McLaren aiming to exploit shorter gearbox ratios
One technical characteristic that has emerged throughout this season and has been confirmed by those directly involved is the difference in gearbox ratios between Mercedes and McLaren. McLaren, which manufactures its own gearbox, uses shorter gear ratios than its rivals. As always, this engineering philosophy brings both advantages and disadvantages, and Monaco could be the ideal circuit to expose both aspects of the concept.
The McLaren MCL40 has consistently looked particularly effective on shorter acceleration zones, often displaying a power delivery profile that contrasts with the Mercedes W17, whose strengths are generally more evident on longer straights and in situations where sustained acceleration becomes important. In Monaco, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri could benefit significantly from this technical choice, potentially enjoying exceptional corner-exit performance from the slowest sections of the circuit. Given the large number of low-speed corners around Monte Carlo, this advantage could become particularly valuable over a qualifying lap.
It is also worth remembering that both the McLaren MCL40 and Mercedes W17 feature relatively short wheelbases, an important advantage on the narrow streets of the Principality. A shorter wheelbase generally improves agility and responsiveness, qualities that are highly desirable at Monaco.
Mercedes, however, will not simply stand aside. The W17 has demonstrated strong chassis characteristics throughout the season, even if it has not always matched the Ferrari SF-26 in the slowest corners. In Monaco, the Rev 1 electrical deployment map that teams will use will progressively reduce MGU-K power output from 200 km/h onwards, reaching zero at 300 km/h. Unlike the standard deployment mode, the overtake mode will feature a less aggressive reduction curve, allowing the MGU-K to deliver up to 150 kW until 300 km/h before dropping to zero at 310 km/h.
With Straight Mode unavailable, drag management will once again become an important factor in the faster sections of the circuit, including the tunnel straight. This is not an area where the Ferrari SF-26 has particularly excelled so far, although energy management itself should not represent a major concern for the Italian team. Energy clipping is also unlikely to play a significant role. Around Monaco, drivers spend only 44% of the lap at full throttle and 20.8% under braking, while 7% is spent coasting and 28.2% at partial throttle. These figures clearly illustrate how different Monaco is compared to most modern Formula 1 venues.
Mercedes therefore loses the area in which its power unit has been the benchmark throughout much of the season. Nevertheless, the latest rear-end aerodynamic developments on the W17 highlight the importance Mercedes places on maximizing local downforce generation and extracting every possible advantage from the regulations.
Teams that still use a central rear actuator layout — unlike Ferrari, which eliminated it through its so-called Macarena solution — have been able to exploit the volumes permitted by the regulations by adding highly sculpted aerodynamic elements designed to generate additional local downforce. Ferrari has also removed the front actuator system previously integrated into the chassis. This demonstrates how much attention the team is paying to even the smallest performance gains, with valuable hundredths of a second potentially being unlocked through the saving of just a few grams.
McLaren and Red Bull have both introduced particularly aggressive solutions in this area. On the Red Bull, the actuator system remains in place and has effectively become an aerodynamic device in its own right, highlighting the increasingly creative approaches teams are adopting in pursuit of marginal gains.
The first meaningful answers will arrive on Friday when on-track action begins in Monaco. Only then will it become clear whether Ferrari’s apparent strengths can truly be translated into competitive performance around one of Formula 1’s most demanding and unpredictable circuits.
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