F1 Japan GP: rear tire management problems for Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc limits damage. Lewis Hamilton struggled too much with the rear axle in Suzuka.

What a disappointing Ferrari with Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc at the 5.807-kilometre Suzuka Circuit. It is sad for us all, but there are not a lot of good things to say about the Maranello team’s performance this weekend. The Japanese Grand Prix brought a triumphant moment for Max Verstappen’s Red Bull, a bit less so for the two McLaren cars of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. Then there is our Prancing Horse trotting along depressed, settling for backup positions. A race that highlighted the shortcomings of the SF-25 single-seater, on which the Italian team is working to change course. Aerodynamic updates are needed, as soon as possible, starting with the Bahrain Grand Prix, which takes place in just a few days.

Looking back at this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix, during Friday’s runs and race simulations, it emerged that a one-stop strategy was the most likely for today’s race at the Suzuka circuit. Starting with the medium tires, they would then switch to the Hards between the 20th and 30th lap. On the starting grid, Ferrari unveiled a different strategy for Lewis Hamilton. For car number 44, they decided to use the hard compound to extend the stint by a handful of laps.

This was an aspect that could have helped with the overcut tactic on a small group of cars, possibly useful for gaining a few seconds on the leading pack. Up front, Max Verstappen managed to impose his pace, keeping the two McLaren MCL39 cars behind in the early laps. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri wisely stayed behind to avoid taking risks and to “gradually” build up temperature on all four tires.

The goal was to protect the left front, which had shown some graining on Friday that they wanted to avoid. But the Australian was in a slightly different situation, stating over the radio that, on the contrary, he felt the rear was the limiting factor for performance. Meanwhile, Max Verstappen was not pulling away, due to a lack of pace, and was only able to build a cushion of just 2 seconds over Lando Norris in the first 10 laps of the Japanese Grand Prix.

As we have often pointed out in recent weeks, Red Bull has a higher level of tire degradation than McLaren. That is why, in the attempt to win this Formula 1 race at the Suzuka circuit, it had to minimize tire wear as much as possible. A tough task, left solely to the driver’s sensitivity. The first real aerodynamic updates on this front will come in the next races.

Crucial were the team radio communications from lap 13, where the Woking team warned its drivers that the likelihood of rain in the race was significantly decreasing. As a result, they communicated that they needed to use the pace they had to close in on Max Verstappen. From that point on, the two MCL39 cars began to appear constantly in the mirrors of the four-time Formula 1 world champion.

In addition to this, the “Strategy A” plan was confirmed to both, meaning one single pit stop. A sign that the degradation was in line with expectations. McLaren also provided another useful piece of information to understand the race. By lap 15, they confirmed the absence of graining, with the main issue being the thermal management of the tires, especially at the rear.

Charles Leclerc found his rhythm early on, focusing on merely managing the compounds to have a potential opportunity later. Midway through the first stint, the Monegasque reported that the tire was in the “2/3 phase” of its life, so quite stable with no excessive wear. For this reason, he chose to extend the stint to continue exploiting the pace for a few more laps.

Ferrari pitted on lap 21, aiming to rejoin the track ahead of George Russell to avoid losing time. Kimi Antonelli managed an incredible stint on the medium tire, keeping it alive beyond the 30th lap. Lewis Hamilton did the same, but with the hard tire. The Briton pitted on lap 31 to switch to the medium and finish the race. On the next lap, the young Italian driver also pitted, but switched to the hard.

However, Lewis Hamilton complained a lot over the radio because he was struggling too much with the rear axle. The Briton meant that thermally the rear end was struggling. Indeed, it took several laps to bring the temperature of the Pirelli tires back within the optimal range. With the mediums, car number 44 should have been much stronger, but that was not the case.

Overall, the Ferrari SF-25 car lost about 3 tenths per lap to the leading drivers. This circuit, we emphasize once again, had characteristics that did not match well with the SF-25. A positive side is the adaptation to the track, finding a compromise setup to limit the damage. However, there is still much work to be done on the balance, which is quite evident.

There remains a significant understeer behaviour, even with a full tank, which limits performance. This is also why the red car can’t run with the ground clearance it would like. It is clear that a small step forward has been made compared to the Chinese Grand Prix and last year’s World Championship, where, on the same track, the average gap per lap was over 4 tenths.

Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur continues to assert that they are still not able to fully exploit the SF-25. Once again, the doubts we had at the start of the 2025 Formula 1 season are confirmed, when a Ferrari with various “revolutions” in the car’s bodywork was presented. The risk was what has unfortunately materialized. A situation that was not hard to predict.

We refer to the fact that, unfortunately, after these first three 2025 World Championship events, the mere understanding of Ferrari’s working group is far from ideal, significantly weaker than that of McLaren and Red Bull. Two teams that, not coincidentally, chose the path of continuity, knowing that revolutionizing the car too much in the final year of regulatory stability was not very wise.

Aside from this, today Ferrari clearly lacked the pace of the best. As for tire degradation, we can say it was more in line with the leading group. Lewis Hamilton is still trying to understand how to manage tire wear thermally. The seven-time Formula 1 world champion still needs time, bearing in mind that Charles Leclerc has more experience in this area and made the difference in the race today.

— see video above —-