With just six races left in the 2023 Formula 1 championship, the verdict that could declare Max Verstappen as world champion might come after the sprint race at the end of tomorrow, in Losail. He is just a handful of points away (three to be precise) from securing the title, and there is no reason to think that he won’t achieve this goal at the end of the 100 or so kilometers of the Losail circuit. There’s no need to reach this milestone to acknowledge the overwhelming superiority of Red Bull over Ferrari and any other competitor.
After nearly two full seasons of “F1 next gen,” it’s clear that the Anglo-Austrian team hit the bullseye (quotes are used to emphasize that nothing happens by chance) with their winning concept. This is confirmed by a performance gap that has widened rapidly and inexorably.
The 2023 Formula 1 season was supposed to be the year of a great comeback, aided by the Aerodynamic Test Regulation and the penalties imposed on the defending champions. None of this has happened since Ferrari and Mercedes have strayed from their concepts, which the track has soundly and irrevocably rejected. Quantifying the actual gap between the SF-23 and the RB19 is almost impossible. Not only because the gap widens or narrows (slightly) depending on the track, but also because there’s a clear feeling that Max Verstappen never races at 100% of what his car can offer.
Ferrari: Is the gap to Red Bull really half a second?
Carlos Sainz has pointed out that Red Bull enjoys an advantage of about half a second. If we look closely, this is a conservative estimate, and it would still represent a time advantage built up over a couple of years. How can this gap be bridged? It’s a million-dollar question that we won’t dare to answer.
Like any other team, Ferrari has two paths to follow: either they “copy” the best or they continue down their own path. This second option has proved to be a failure since there is no team principal who has not more or less admitted that the conceptual philosophy defined by Adrian Newey is the winning one and aligns best with the current regulatory framework.
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Therefore, with the option of conceptual fidelity discarded, Ferrari has no choice but to adapt, not slavishly, to what their colleagues from across the English Channel are doing. However, it should be noted that they are starting with a significant delay, although not necessarily two years.
Carlos Sainz, speaking at an event organized by one of his personal sponsors, admitted that it won’t be easy to reach the level of those dominating thanks to the advantage they have accumulated.
The Spaniard acknowledges that Ferrari is aware that at this point, it is necessary to focus only on themselves without lamenting the time lost. Closing the gap with Red Bull is a Herculean task, especially within a short time frame like a winter. But Carlos Sainz doesn’t want to surrender without trying. He takes McLaren as an example, as their comeback, starting in Styria, has become the model that everyone is looking to.
Ferrari Observes McLaren’s Moves
The McLaren team has offered hope: to recover a lot of tenths in a short time is possible, despite the Aerodynamic Test Regulation and the cost cap. But one must be cautious about determinism: individual cases never make general rules, and borrowing some concepts, as the historic English team has done, is not enough to make a significant shift in the season.
“If McLaren has managed to make such an important step, I am sure that a team like Ferrari can do it as well. We know what we need to work on and what we need to improve.” These are the sentiments of someone who knows McLaren well, having come from that world. Will the months leading up to early March be enough to significantly reduce the gap?
A few months ago, responding to the long-standing question, Charles Leclerc, who is not one to indulge in flights of fancy with his pragmatic approach, didn’t seem too optimistic. He considered the advantage accumulated by Red Bull to be of such monumental proportions that it couldn’t be exhausted in a short time. Lewis Hamilton similarly doesn’t believe that full performance convergence will be achieved in 2024.
However, if the two aforementioned drivers are less optimistic, it doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Ferrari has the task of working serenely, well aware that Red Bull is coming off a record-breaking season that may not be matched for many years. All the improvements that arrive must be welcomed because in F1, there are no magical formulas that can drastically alter the balance in the presence of stable regulations.
The closing championship has shown that following the path taken by Red Bull can lead to a significant recovery. This was the case for Aston Martin, and it has been the case for McLaren. Given that Ferrari starts ahead of these two realities, the possibilities for a surprising season exist, even if not extremely high.
Source: Diego Catalano for FUnoanalisitecnica
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