F1, Ferrari: stopping SF-23 development could lead to McLaren’s comeback. Stopping SF-23 development could lead to McLaren threat amid P3 battle.

On June 18, 2023, at 10:00 PM Italian time, if someone had said that McLaren could finish the Formula 1 World Championship in third place (currently held by Ferrari), they would have likely been sent to the psychiatric ward in straightjackets. Oscar Piastri finished in eleventh place, and Lando Norris was even worse off in thirteenth. Another sporting ordeal adding to the previous ones.

While Max Verstappen won and equaled Ayrton Senna, Red Bull was leading the championship with a massive 321 points. Mercedes, in second place, had amassed 167 points, just three ahead of Aston Martin. Ferrari, in fourth place, had collected 122 points. McLaren? They had a meager 17 points, the result of just five top-ten finishes.

McLaren, 202 points in nine races: a remarkable comeback that worries Ferrari
After four months, revisiting the constructor standings is quite an eye-opener. Red Bull, the reigning champion, is out of reach. Mercedes is still fighting to hold on to second place against Ferrari. Aston Martin has made minimal progress, gaining just over 60 points in four months and nine races. McLaren, however, now has a total of 219 points.

A remarkable leap of 202 points, something that has allowed McLaren to narrow the gap, target the green cars from Silverstone, and aim for the third position held by Ferrari, which is only 79 points ahead. With five races, including two sprint weekends, a comeback is feasible. In fact, considering the performance in the last two races, it’s even probable.

The MCL60 cars have become a real menace to their competitors. Moving from second to fourth place in the championship doesn’t make a significant difference. If anything, ending further down the grid comes with undeniable benefits in terms of wind tunnel testing. But it’s a matter of pride. That’s why McLaren is aiming for third place and perhaps even second.

For the same reason, both Ferrari and Mercedes don’t want to be overtaken, especially considering the huge lead they had after the Canadian Grand Prix. A comeback of this magnitude would be a significant blow to morale and challenging to recover from.

The English team has gained 26 points on Ferrari, 43 on Mercedes, and 126 on Aston Martin since the Austrian Grand Prix. Now, they are just 11 points behind Aston Martin, which could potentially be overtaken even with the struggling Lance Stroll. But McLaren aims much higher.

After the Qatar Grand Prix, where Lando Norris finished third, he expressed confidence in achieving an astonishing goal: “Are we 79 points behind Ferrari? Closing that gap is doable. A couple of races ago, we were over 70 points behind Aston Martin.”

Lando has even stepped up the pressure, likely to put more pressure on Aston Martin, the nearest target: “Fernando also said we were too confident. I think we’re doing a good job, not just in terms of pace. We completed a pit stop in 1.8 seconds, which is quite impressive from the guys. The team enjoys the taste of success. It’s the first time they’ve consistently achieved it, and I think this drives them to want it even more.”

Ferrari, Norris’ Warning: “We’re Better Than Them”
“Mercedes is very fast but they continue to make mistakes. If they have a clean weekend, they’ll make our lives a bit harder. Ferrari? We are better, they are a bit worse. We’re not too confident at all. We’re confident, we have to be. But we know there will be some races where we won’t be as strong.”

In the last part, Lando Norris adjusted his statement slightly but maintained his overall point: the MCL60 is in good shape, while the SF-23 is eagerly awaiting retirement. The situation is straightforward. Ferrari is going through a necessary conceptual overhaul for the 2024 model, which will break with the current one, serving as a “lab rat” only up to a point.

It’s a different story for McLaren, whose car underwent a philosophical shift a while back, and they need to consolidate principles that have already proven successful. Developments are still being added to their car since the model for the next season will be an evolution of the one performing well in the latter part of the 2023 season.

This stark difference has played a role in McLaren’s comeback and could add an element of suspense to a championship already settled in terms of what truly matters. Ferrari can only try to optimize what they have at hand, hoping it’s enough to challenge the error-prone Mercedes and to keep the McLaren cars of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri at bay, which have been looming large in the rearview mirrors of the red cars.

Source: Diego Catalano for FUnoanalisitecnica