Ferrari is pushing hard to close the gap to Mercedes while waiting for the upcoming technical checks scheduled for June, but from the Formula 1 paddock, some rather concerning predictions are beginning to emerge. The topic of the 2026 power units continues to generate intense debate, especially with a key technical directive expected in the coming months.
At the center of attention is Mercedes, the clear benchmark at the start of the 2026 Formula 1 season, with Scuderia Ferrari currently positioned as the closest challenger. Despite stricter controls being planned and the FIA already carrying out detailed inspections, there is a growing belief among rival teams that the interventions expected in June will not significantly reduce the advantage currently enjoyed by the German manufacturer.
The FIA has already initiated thorough investigations into the power units, reportedly going as far as completely dismantling certain engines to compare them with the official designs submitted by the teams. The primary objective is to ensure full compliance with the regulations, particularly in areas such as performance and thermal expansion, which are considered extremely sensitive under the new 2026 rules.
Among the hypotheses being discussed is the possibility of conducting extreme testing procedures, including exposing components to very high temperatures in order to analyze their behavior under stress. However, practical limitations are also becoming apparent: replicating real operating conditions is far from straightforward, making some of these verification processes technically challenging to execute with full accuracy.
Bobbi reveals: “Rivals do not expect any changes”
Providing insight into the atmosphere within the paddock, Matteo Bobbi shared behind-the-scenes details gathered directly from both the FIA and various teams, speaking during a live session on AutoRacer:
“We had the opportunity to speak with the FIA without the press officer present. They told us they had already completely dismantled the engine before Australia, and it turned out to be identical to the declared drawings. The static test at 130 degrees is practically impossible to carry out, because once you disassemble the engine, the temperature drops. They are even considering placing components in an oven to observe thermal expansion.”
However, the most striking point concerns the reactions from rival teams:
“You go to Laurent Mekies and he tells you: nothing will happen, maybe they will lose three or four horsepower. You go to Audi and they tell you: nothing will happen, absolutely nothing. The engine in July will perform exactly as it does now. These are the competitors saying it, off the record.”
Bobbi also added a significant reference to a statement made by Mattia Binotto:
“Who has won in Formula 1 since 2014? Only Mercedes. Why? Because they are better than the others.”
Ferrari waiting, but Mercedes remains the benchmark
The picture that emerges from Bobbi’s comments is quite clear: Scuderia Ferrari and the other teams are currently facing a Mercedes package that is unlikely to experience any major drop in performance, even with the introduction of new technical directives. The management of the power unit, combined with the FIA’s ongoing checks, seems to confirm that Mercedes’ engine advantage could remain stable, at least in the short to medium term.
For Ferrari, this means continuing to push development on all fronts, from power unit efficiency to overall car performance, in an effort to close a gap that, for now, still appears significant. While the Maranello-based team has shown encouraging signs and remains firmly in contention, the road to consistently challenge Mercedes at the front remains steep.
It now remains to be seen whether any future developments or regulatory clarifications will be able to shift the competitive balance. For the moment, however, the prevailing sentiment within the paddock is that Mercedes’ superiority is not only real, but also deeply rooted — and unlikely to disappear anytime soon.
While Ferrari fans are looking toward the summer for a shift in momentum, the paddock consensus suggests that Mercedes’ engineering head-start is deep-rooted. Unless the FIA discovers a “smoking gun” during their oven-testing phase, the Silver Arrows look set to maintain their lead well into the European leg of the season.
