F1 Brazil GP: rain saves Ferrari’s championship hopes. Ferrari fades in the Brazil rain but is also grateful for it.

The 2024 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix does not disappoint, delivering yet another grand achievement. Three years after Lewis Hamilton’s victorious comeback, Max Verstappen puts on a performance that ranks among the most remarkable feats in Formula 1 history, securing his fourth title. Meanwhile, the championship slips from the hands of Lando Norris and McLaren, who now also risk losing the constructors’ championship. Ferrari, on the other hand, limits the damage on a challenging track, looking forward to the promising opportunity in the next round of the season, the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

One could rightly say that the Dutch champion’s victory was aided by a bit of good fortune, with the timely display of the red flag allowing him to avoid an extra pit stop. However, it was the Red Bull pit wall itself that sought out this stroke of luck, choosing not to call Max Verstappen into the pits under the Safety Car in anticipation of a possible neutralization. This incident also compensated for the misfortune Max Verstappen experienced earlier in the day when a red flag interrupted his qualifying lap and prevented him from reaching Q3.

Even without luck’s assistance, the Red Bull driver delivered three great demonstrations of his talent. The first came at the start, as he maneuvered through the pack and overtook two cars on the outside of the long bend, using the less rubbered, and thus less slippery, line in the wet. From there, the reigning world champion executed a series of overtakes in low-visibility conditions, at a stage when almost no one else could manage to pass without the help of the drag reduction system. Max Verstappen then capped off his race with a final stint in which, over 27 green-flag laps, he built a 19-second lead over Esteban Ocon’s excellent Alpine, which finished second behind him. He also set the fastest lap, one second quicker than Lando Norris, the fastest among his competitors.

It is well known that the Dutchman is exceptional in wet conditions, but it’s worth noting that the RB20 had not won in ten races. The new engine provided a few extra horsepower, while updates from the Baku City circuit in Azerbaijan and the United States Grand Prix at the Austin circuit partially improved its drivability. To tame the Red Bull, however, Max Verstappen’s magic was still needed, and with one of the best races of his career, he secured his fourth drivers’ championship.

Moving on to Scuderia Ferrari’s weekend at the 4.309-kilometre Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace in Brazil, the race ended with Charles Leclerc’s fifth place and Carlos Sainz’s retirement, a stark contrast to the joy in Austin and Mexico City. The rain highlighted some major chronic difficulties of the SF24 car in quickly heating up its tires on a cold track, an issue that was apparent in the qualifying session, as seen before on the Saturday in Montreal earlier this season. This dynamic repeated itself in the race during the early laps after restarts, partly due to the conservative choice to run lower tire pressures.

The rain puts Ferrari in difficulty, yet they are thankful for it. Not only does the wet weather cause the McLaren drivers and pit wall to make errors, but it also arrives on a track where the Ferrari had little chance of victory. On a dry track during Saturday’s Sprint, the Ferrari drivers had already conceded to Max Verstappen, with a mediocre pace only partially explained by the three-lap difference in tire age compared to Charles Leclerc’s. Adjustments to the SF-24 setup could have improved the situation for the Grand Prix, but there was still a real risk of losing important points.

At the end of the weekend, however, the gap from McLaren in the constructors’ standings grew by just eight points. Now it becomes essential for Ferrari not to miss the opportunity in Las Vegas, a track that closely resembles Baku, where the SF-24 emerged as the fastest car. Afterward, they will head to Qatar, where Ferrari is expected to bring some aerodynamic updates with hopes of increasing overall downforce and, above all, improving stability through long corners.

It seems like McLaren was executing everything perfectly: front row on Friday, one-two in Saturday’s Sprint, and pole on Sunday morning. McLaren was also prepared for the rain, opting to switch to a higher-downforce beam wing-rear wing package compared to previous days, being the only top team to do so. However, these efforts faded in the race, with the team suffering from the unfortunate timing of the red flag and, more importantly, too many mistakes and a lack of decisiveness from the drivers. The MCL38 single-seater seemed like a distant relative of the car admired on Friday and Saturday on a dry track.

The drivers’ title now seems out of reach, but McLaren still has the potential to secure the constructors’ title. However, a shift in direction is necessary for them. After September, it was hard to imagine the British team would go winless in the American triple-header, highlighting a slight performance advantage and putting emphasis on flawless weekend execution. The best news of the past month for McLaren remains the effectiveness of the third upgrade package, which has introduced no issues to the MCL38. This is the best testament to the team’s skills, methodologies, and design tools, which are now being used to develop the 2025 Formula 1 car that should renew their push for the drivers’ title.

Another big surprise of the day was both Alpines returning to the podium, with Esteban Ocon ahead of Pierre Gasly. Here too, luck rewarded their strategy of waiting for the red flag to switch to fresh tires, but even in clear air, the French cars showed a respectable pace. This led to a bittersweet result, considering it may be the last podium for a Renault power unit.

Racing Bulls and Yuki Tsunoda came very close to enjoying champagne as well, thanks to their well-timed switch to full wets, but they were penalized by the Safety Car’s appearance. This incident once again highlighted the limited usefulness of the extreme wet tires, with Pirelli having pushed for years to develop a new full wet or a single rain tire.

It was a day of two sides for Mercedes. George Russell, who started from the front row and fought for the podium, contrasted with Lewis Hamilton, who was eliminated in Q1 and was two seconds slower than his teammate on a clear lap. The seven-time Formula 1 world champion continues to report a lack of confidence in the Silver Arrow, but the disparity in performance here is hard to explain. The updates from Spa-Francorchamps and Austin failed to keep pace with McLaren, Ferrari, and even Red Bull’s development. Mercedes has little left to gain from this season, but the recent decline certainly doesn’t set the best stage for the 2025 Formula 1 championship.

— see video above —