With just four months to go before the Barcelona shakedown, the 2026 Formula 1 cars remain a mystery. The new power units, chassis and active aerodynamics, as explained by Mercedes, make development feel like chasing a moving target. Unlike in the past, there are no familiar reference points, making it difficult to understand what performance levels the cars will ultimately reach.
Only a few months remain until the first on-track test of the 2026 cars, scheduled for Barcelona, where the new machines will run in a shakedown behind closed doors. Much like in 2022, when ground-effect cars made their debut, teams will be given the chance to get acquainted with radically different machinery, away from the public eye. But this time, the revolution will not only involve aerodynamics but also the power units.
In order to optimize development, performance forecasts for the winter need to be made now, even though they are constantly changing. That is the main problem: the cars evolve so rapidly that it is difficult even to estimate their real performance level. The secret data provided by teams to Pirelli already show significant discrepancies of around 20–30% in expected downforce levels.
A deeper and more complex revolution
The challenge comes from the sheer number of changes. In 2022, the power units remained the same, but next year everything will change — from the engines to the chassis — creating a much deeper level of technical interconnection. Every design choice will influence another, and whoever finds the best balance will gain an advantage, both in outright power and in energy management.
Because of the complexity of the new rules, many teams have already shifted their focus to 2026. Williams, for example, began as early as January, while others gradually redirected resources until making the full switch around the summer break.
As the January deadline approaches, the relentless pace of aerodynamic development forces teams to continue chasing moving targets, making it difficult to predict what downforce levels the cars will display at winter testing. Simulator work is ongoing, but development is still in flux, especially since many race drivers have not yet had the chance to try the 2026 cars virtually.
Normally, due to the crowded F1 calendar and long overseas trips, official drivers test the car for the following season only in the final months of the year, leaving the first development phases to reserves. With the 2026 machines, however, some teams have chosen to bring forward driver involvement, while others, such as Sauber, have preferred to wait, since the current version of their car is still far from what will eventually be tested.
Mercedes: “A moving, invisible target”
When development starts from a well-defined and familiar technical cycle, it is easier to set clear targets for the following year. Teams are usually able to establish a performance window to work towards, and the simulations provided to Pirelli tend to reflect those expectations quite accurately. But this time, things are different.
“The car evolves week by week, and as performance changes, so do the simulation results. It’s a moving, invisible target: you need to make sure the chassis package is optimized for the power unit. It’s going to be a difficult year,” explained Mercedes trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin.
At this stage, teams have broadly defined the suspension layout and the structure of the chassis, which must integrate perfectly with the new power unit. That is why it forms the foundation of the project. FEM testing on elastic deformation is underway, helping teams understand how far they can push weight reduction in pursuit of a lighter car. Once the fundamentals are fixed, the rest of the package can be built around them.
“You have a virtual representation of the car that you can run in the simulator. But you’re trying to predict where we’ll be in four months in terms of aerodynamic load, because there’s no point working on something that will never hit the track. You want to focus on a representative model of what will actually go to testing,” Shovlin added. The FIA has noted that some manufacturers are extremely secretive with their power unit data, making it difficult even for the regulator to have a precise picture.
Power unit and aero development go hand in hand
It should not be forgotten that power unit development, particularly in terms of engine mapping and energy deployment, will directly influence aerodynamic choices, offering more or less flexibility depending on the solutions adopted. This is why many aero concepts remain open: teams are working with a base design, built around the data provided by the engine department, with other decisions branching out from there to strike the right balance between downforce and efficiency.
Given the huge number of variables, development is not linear. There can be sudden leaps that deliver bigger gains than expected, and as teams dive deeper into the new regulations, fresh elements may still emerge. This is also why simulation values vary so widely, as confirmed by Pirelli.
Pirelli caught in the middle
The Italian supplier will introduce narrower tyres to help reduce the minimum weight, and to develop them it needs accurate downforce values from the teams. Shovlin hinted that Pirelli finds itself in the middle of a “game of shadows,” with teams deliberately hiding some data to avoid giving rivals any useful reference. It is worth noting, however, that the figures sent are kept strictly confidential and are not final. Pirelli will receive further updates in the coming months as development progresses.
“Pirelli says it is getting all sorts of indications about what the end-of-straight loads will be. But we are all developing the cars in isolation. Nobody has seen anything, and at the moment you really don’t hear anything from the other teams about how they are progressing. It may be that those in the best shape are downplaying their progress. Some could be presenting where they think they’ll get to, others only where they are today,” added the Mercedes engineer.
Leave a Reply