Formula 1 resumes in the Netherlands, delivering an exciting race full of twists and turns. A dominant race was expected from McLaren, but Lando Norris’s poor start allowed Max Verstappen to take the lead, raising some doubts. At Zandvoort, overtaking is very difficult, so in the early stages, it was believed that we would have to wait for pit stops to see a change in the leading positions. However, everything would happen much sooner than expected.
Strategy recap
Before discussing what determined the various on-track battles, let’s proceed with the usual post-race strategy recap. Yesterday morning, we expected that with the track surface made “green” by the rain (almost a storm) that hit the circuit last night, the drivers would prefer the Medium tires over the Soft at the start. This was to counteract the graining issues seen on Friday for some teams (including Ferrari). And so it was, in line with Pirelli’s predictions, with most drivers finishing the race on a one-stop strategy.
The Medium (C2)-Hard (C1) tactic was executed by the winner Lando Norris, followed by Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, Oscar Piastri, Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez, Pierre Gasly, Fernando Alonso, Nico Hulkenberg (who lost the tenth place in the final laps, probably for pitting too early on lap 14), Daniel Ricciardo, Lance Stroll, Esteban Ocon, and Logan Sargeant.
The only other driver on a one-stop strategy, Kevin Magnussen, opted to start from the pit lane on Hard tires and then switched to Mediums for his final stint (he finished 18th ahead of both Saubers).
Six brave drivers went for two stops: George Russell and Zhou on Medium (C2)-Hard (C1)-Soft (C3), Lewis Hamilton on Soft-Hard-Soft, Albon on Medium-Hard-Medium (from 19th to 14th), Yuki Tsunoda on Soft-Medium-Hard, and Bottas on Soft-Hard-Medium. The race ended with all drivers crossing the finish line and no retirements.
The battle at the top, Lando Norris Vs Max Verstappen
Let’s pick up where we left off, with Lando Norris, the favorite to win, being overtaken by Verstappen at the start of the Dutch Grand Prix. In the first few laps, Lando and Max kept their distance. It was clear that Norris might have more pace since the gap never widened, but it was hard to predict that from lap 12, roughly when he decided to overtake Max, the Brit would take six laps to complete the job, including closing in and attacking. On lap 18, Lando gained the lead on track, “without tricks and without cheating,” and went on to win the GP with a margin of 22.8 seconds, which equates to a performance difference of four-tenths per lap.
This gap is significant for several reasons. First, it emerged on a short and technical track. Second, both Lando Norris and Max Verstappen raced under the same conditions, with the same tires and the same number of laps completed. Max pitted only one lap before Lando. McLaren’s progress has been astounding with the update step introduced here at Zandvoort. The weather conditions were very peculiar, especially with the wind that continued to blow strongly even today.
Monza and Baku will also be more or less unique tracks, but whoever is competitive in Italy will likely be competitive in Azerbaijan as well. This is another fast circuit where aerodynamic adjustments will be needed to tackle the street section of the track (referring to the narrow and tricky layout around the Castle).
Ferrari magic and Mercedes mistake
How did Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz finish in third and fifth place? Especially starting from sixth and tenth on the grid, respectively. Magic, what else? Today we must give credit to the Italian team because everything worked perfectly, from the biggest to the smallest cog.
First of all, Charles Leclerc got a great start and immediately overtook Sergio Perez, moving up to P5. Then, contrary to everything that was said yesterday, he made a bold move for which the team deserves full credit. We had said that with the green track and cool temperatures (19°C ambient and 31°C track), the Hard compound would need a few laps to get into the proper working window. So when we saw Leclerc pit first among the top-10 group on lap 25 (Lewis Hamilton pitted one lap earlier, but he started on Softs), we were in shock (a typical Roman expression). Especially since Charles Leclerc found himself in ninth place upon returning to the track, just 2.3 seconds behind Fernando Alonso.
However, his out lap was masterful. The Monegasque driver immediately got temperature into the tires, and in just one lap, he passed both Fernando Alonso and George Russell, who suffered an undercut and pitted on the following lap. At that point, McLaren, realizing they had lost the position to Charles Leclerc with Oscar Piastri, decided to extend the first stint as long as possible to have fresher tires at the end. Oscar did a great job extending the first part of the race by nine laps compared to Ferrari’s number 16.
The McLaren strategy seemed to pay off because the Australian quickly closed the gap to Charles Leclerc, but despite being faster and Charles repeatedly losing the rear out of corners, he couldn’t complete the overtake. If there’s any magic that the Monegasque driver pulled off, it’s precisely this. The defense he put up against McLaren with older tires and a visibly less stable car than his rival’s was absolutely masterful.
With Carlos Sainz, they decided to replicate what Piastri did to have fresher tires at the end. Perez did the same (the Mexican lost a bit of time in the pit stop, but this didn’t affect his final position). After Oscar’s stop, we had Russell in P4 (on Hards with 8 laps), Piastri following with a 4-second gap, Sergio Perez 2.9 seconds behind with Hards 4 laps old, and Carlos Sainz 2.8 seconds behind with Hards on which he had completed three laps. Lewis Hamilton was eighth, 3.3 seconds behind.
Among these, the Australian had the most pace and didn’t take long to pass George and start chasing Charles Leclerc. However, the decision to go for Checo and Carlos seemed to pay off, at least initially. The two seemed capable of catching and passing the Mercedes number 63. But then Sergio Perez had a drop-off, and Sainz took advantage, passing him on lap 47 (thus gaining P6). Later, Mercedes made the “perhaps” mistake of not believing they could withstand the Spaniard’s attacks and decided to fit Softs on George’s car, dropping him from fifth to seventh place. P7 he would not improve in the final part of the race because Perez found some performance in the last laps and finished sixth.
Ferrari got everything right, while Mercedes perhaps didn’t believe enough. The decision to fit Softs on Lewis Hamilton was good since his eighth position was already secure, but with George Russell, they might have dared more by staying on track. Despite putting both drivers on C3 tires at the end, Mercedes didn’t even manage to get the fastest lap. The additional point was secured by Lando Norris, on Hard tires, right on the final lap.
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