Carlos Sainz to Williams: why doors of top F1 teams were closed for Spanish driver

Now that the agreement between Carlos Sainz and Williams for the 2025 Formula 1 championship has been made official, several evaluations come to light. It has been six months since Ferrari announced the hiring of Lewis Hamilton, and the arrival of the seven-time world champion in Maranello had, as its first effect, the forced entry of Carlos Sainz onto the driver market.

Since last February 1st, the management of the Spaniard has begun a long and meticulous work made up of meetings and more or less in-depth talks to ensure Carlos Sainz a future in Formula 1. After six months, the current Ferrari driver had to put pen to paper, a forced choice that is not in line with his aspirations. The adventure with Williams could be a surprising one, but today (at least on paper) it represents a drastic downsizing of his ambitions, at least in the short term.

However, there have been opportunities. Unlike last year, all the top teams had to reassess the position of at least one driver, yet Carlos Sainz remained out of the game. Why? Many fans and even quite a few insiders are asking this. Is it possible that a driver who has won Grands Prix and regularly frequented the podium over the last three seasons did not attract the attention of Red Bull, Mercedes, and Aston Martin? What are the reasons? It is a complex puzzle.

Before moving on to individual scenarios, there is one aspect to highlight present in all top teams. In the top teams, every activity is planned well in advance, decisions are carefully considered for a long time and once made, they are rarely changed.

Teams have transitioned from being medium-small companies with a manager often owning the team itself, to medium-sized companies, with structured leadership and comprehensive planning that has removed much flexibility. Consequently, if an unexpected variable comes on the market (as in the case of Carlos Sainz) the opportunity is not always seized because it would involve a change in planning.

Entering the first case, namely Mercedes, corporate management played a role. Carlos Sainz’s candidacy to replace Lewis Hamilton was taken for granted from the outside, but in reality, the Spaniard only made a brief appearance on Toto Wolff’s agenda. The first reason is that the Mercedes team principal hoped (and continues to hope despite knowing that the chances are very slim) for a divorce between Max Verstappen and Red Bull. Signing Carlos Sainz early would have definitively closed the door to the Dutchman, and Toto Wolff had no intention of doing so.

Then there is the ‘planning’ aspect that involves Antonelli. Kimi has been contractually linked to Mercedes since 2018, and his entry into the junior program involved a considerable investment. Antonelli’s career has been planned for a long time and his debut in Formula 1 is a fundamental stage of the journey.

When Lewis Hamilton informed Mercedes last January of the end of their relationship at the end of the season, Toto Wolff had no doubts, planning an intense testing program for Antonelli with the 2022 car, which started two months ago, that will conclude in the fall. An investment of several million euros is justified only for one reason. Considering Carlos Sainz’s candidacy would have meant changing plans, revising long-established points, and risking wasting the investment in the junior program.

Even at Red Bull, the junior program had an impact, albeit a minor one. Carlos Sainz was under Helmut Marko’s wing from 2010 to 2017 when he was sent away (towards Renault) due to a lack of opportunities.

After flourishing years, in which the Red Bull Junior pool ensured the arrival in Formula 1 of Daniel Ricciardo, Sebastian Buemi, Daniil Kvyat, Jean-Eric Vergne, Max Verstappen, and Pierre Gasly, the system has stalled. Besides Max Verstappen, today the three cars of the Red Bull family are driven by Sergio Perez, Yuki Tsunoda (thanks mainly to the partnership with Honda), and the returning Daniel Ricciardo. Helmut Marko can obviously rely on a huge trust dividend assured by Max’s presence, but for years the pool has effectively stalled, and this aspect does not go unnoticed.

Drawing again from the external market (as happened with Sergio Perez) would have meant another failure of the junior program. Carlos Sainz is a former member, but this does not change the state of things: he was a young member of the pool, but today he is no longer.

Helmut Marko’s hope is Liam Lawson, and the possible replacement of Sergio Perez will be an internal operation, with Daniel Ricciardo returning to Red Bull and Lawson moving to the Faenza team. A possible entry of Carlos Sainz (with a two-year contract) in place of Sergio Perez would have again closed the doors of the main team to Liam Lawson and also to Yuki Tsunoda. There is also the desire for a quiet life after last winter’s storm, and at this moment, creating the best comfort zone around Max Verstappen is essential, and in this perspective, the figures of the drivers already under contract fit better than Carlos Sainz’s.

The last ‘no’ that the Spaniard had to accept came from Aston Martin. On paper, the ‘swap’ Fernando Alonso – Carlos Sainz seemed the most logical choice: honoring a great driver (now 43 years old) and welcoming a 29-year-old hungry for revenge. No one would have cried scandal. Lawrence Stroll’s choice, however, was different and in line with his vision.

Since Lance arrived in Formula 1, his father has always wanted a more experienced driver with him. A sort of shield to justify with the different status any performance differences.

At the debut in Williams alongside Lance was Felipe Massa, in Racing Point (which later became Aston Martin) came Sergio Perez, Sebastian Vettel, and Fernando Alonso. The figure of a young driver has never been welcome since Stroll Senior settled in Silverstone, and Carlos Sainz’s resume (‘only’ four years older than Lance) did not fit the requested profile: therefore the Spaniard was considered too competitive compared to Lance.

Facing the prospect of being behind the teammate, it is better if the latter is much older and perhaps with a top-level track record, which perfectly describes Fernando Alonso.