Ferrari can still prevent Mercedes from celebrating the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship, although the Scuderia faces an increasingly difficult task after falling 134 points behind its rival. With six Grands Prix remaining, Mercedes is approaching its first Constructors’ crown since 2021, but the championship cannot be decided at the upcoming United States Grand Prix in Austin.
After 17 rounds, Mercedes leads the standings with 578 points, compared with Ferrari’s 444. George Russell and Kimi Antonelli have helped the German team establish that advantage through a campaign featuring 11 victories, leaving Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc with limited opportunities to keep the title fight alive. Mexico City represents the first possible championship-deciding weekend, while São Paulo could provide another opportunity if Ferrari delays the outcome.
2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship standings after Singapore
Only four teams retain a mathematical chance of winning the championship following the Singapore Grand Prix. Mercedes holds a commanding advantage, while Ferrari remains its closest challenger ahead of McLaren and Red Bull.
- Mercedes: 578 points
- Ferrari: 444 points, 134 behind
- McLaren: 339 points, 239 behind
- Red Bull: 332 points, 246 behind
Under the calculation of 43 points for a team’s first- and second-place finish at each remaining Grand Prix, a maximum of 258 points is still available across the final six races. No additional Sprint points are included in that total.
Ferrari therefore remains mathematically capable of overturning the deficit, although doing so would require a substantial change in the scoring pattern established during the first 17 rounds. McLaren and Red Bull also remain in contention mathematically, but their considerably larger gaps make their prospects even more remote.
The remaining possibilities can be explored using the F1 Championship Points Calculator, which allows different championship outcomes to be compared.
Why Ferrari can delay Mercedes’ 2026 F1 title celebrations in Austin
The next opportunity for Ferrari to reduce the gap comes at the United States Grand Prix, taking place from 23 to 25 October at the Circuit of the Americas. Despite its substantial championship advantage, Mercedes cannot mathematically secure the Constructors’ title during the American weekend.
Even if George Russell and Kimi Antonelli complete a one-two finish while both Ferraris fail to score, the maximum points swing would be 43. That would leave Mercedes with a 177-point advantage over the Maranello team, while five remaining Grands Prix would still offer 215 points.
However, the 2026 United States Grand Prix weekend could have major consequences for the other championship contenders. McLaren would need to recover at least 25 points against Mercedes to preserve its mathematical hopes under the scenario outlined, while Red Bull would require a gain of at least 32 points once the wins-based tiebreaker is considered.
For Ferrari, Austin presents an opportunity to limit Mercedes’ advantage before the championship reaches its first potential deciding round. The Scuderia is also preparing technical upgrades for the SF-26 ahead of Austin, adding another important element to the team’s preparations as it attempts to close the competitive gap.
How Mercedes could clinch the Constructors’ Championship in Mexico
The Mexico City Grand Prix, scheduled from 30 October to 1 November, is the earliest point at which Mercedes could mathematically secure the 2026 Constructors’ Championship.
One particularly favourable scenario would involve Mercedes securing the maximum 43 points through a one-two finish while neither Ferrari driver finishes in the points. Such an outcome would increase the championship gap by 43 points.
If Mercedes enters Mexico with its present 134-point advantage, that result would extend the margin to 177 points. With only four Grands Prix remaining afterwards, and a maximum of 172 points available, the championship would be mathematically settled.
Importantly, Mercedes would not necessarily need to win the Mexican race to secure the title. The decisive factor would be its championship advantage after the event compared with the number of points Ferrari could still recover.
A lead greater than 172 points after Mexico would guarantee Mercedes the championship. If Ferrari gained five points relative to the current margin, reducing the gap to exactly 172, the title calculation would depend on the applicable countback criteria.
The outcome of Austin will therefore play an important role in shaping the opportunities available in Mexico. Every point Ferrari recovers in Texas would make the German team’s immediate title prospects more difficult, while another strong Mercedes result would bring the celebrations closer.
Could Ferrari keep the championship alive until Brazil?
If Ferrari prevents Mercedes from securing the title in Mexico, the São Paulo Grand Prix from 6 to 8 November could become the next decisive weekend.
The championship’s first 17 races have demonstrated the consistency of Mercedes’ advantage. Its 134-point lead over Ferrari represents an average difference of approximately eight points per Grand Prix, underlining how effectively the team has converted its performances into championship results.
Should that scoring trend continue through Austin and Mexico, Brazil would become a particularly realistic opportunity for Mercedes to complete its title challenge. Ferrari would need to restrict the points lost to its rival, or begin reducing the deficit, to extend the mathematical battle into the subsequent rounds.
Beyond São Paulo, the revised 2026 Formula 1 calendar still includes Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Those events would remain relevant to the title fight only if Ferrari successfully keeps the championship undecided through the preceding races.
Mercedes closes in on a historic ninth Constructors’ Championship
Securing the 2026 title would represent an important milestone for Mercedes. The German team has not won the Constructors’ Championship since 2021, and another triumph would take its historical total to nine titles.
That achievement would bring Mercedes level with Williams in the all-time Constructors’ Championship rankings. Ferrari remains the most successful team in that category with 16 titles, while McLaren has accumulated 10.
A championship victory would also underline Mercedes’ recovery following the difficulties it experienced during the ground-effect era. Its current advantage suggests that the team has adapted effectively to Formula 1’s new technical regulations introduced for 2026.
For Ferrari, the immediate objective is to postpone that achievement by extracting the maximum possible points from the remaining races. Austin cannot settle the title, but what happens in Texas could determine whether Mercedes completes its championship campaign in Mexico or whether the Scuderia manages to extend the contest towards Brazil.
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