Pirelli expects the 2026 Brazilian Grand Prix to favour a two-stop tyre strategy after practice at Interlagos revealed higher degradation than anticipated. While one-stop races have become the preferred approach at most Formula 1 venues, the São Paulo Grand Prix looks set to be an exception, with tyre overheating forcing teams to reconsider their plans. The hard compound could also play a crucial role thanks to its operating temperature range, while two leading strategies are separated by just three seconds over the full race distance.
In modern Formula 1, where teams generally prefer to complete races with a single pit stop across most of the championship’s 24 rounds, the Brazilian Grand Prix represents something of a rarity. The race at the Autódromo José Carlos Pace, better known as Interlagos, is expected to feature two pit stops for almost every driver, provided conditions remain dry.
If the weather stays dry, as appeared likely at the beginning of the weekend, a two-stop strategy would be almost unavoidable given the tyre degradation observed during free practice. Wear proved slightly higher than expected, primarily because of overheating, making tyre management one of the most important factors in Sunday’s race.
The challenge was already highlighted in the pre-race analysis of Interlagos tyre demands, with the circuit’s fast corners, substantial lateral loads and Pirelli’s softer compound selection placing additional pressure on the tyres.
Brazilian GP tyre strategy: Pirelli expects two stops after higher degradation
Dario Marrafuschi, Pirelli Motorsport director, explained that the initial forecasts had already pointed towards a two-stop race, although the preferred tyre combinations have changed following the information gathered during practice.
“In the event of a completely dry weekend, before the race our prediction was a two-stop strategy, with two possible combinations: Soft-Double Hard or Medium-Double Hard,” Dario Marrafuschi explained.
“With the start of the weekend on Friday, and with the free practice sessions held yesterday morning, we saw that tyre degradation was slightly higher than expected. Mainly because, once again, this is something we have encountered throughout the year: degradation caused by actual tyre overheating.”
The higher degradation has forced Pirelli to revise its calculations, although the overall recommendation remains unchanged. Two stops are still expected to offer the best solution, but the most attractive compound sequences are now different.
“This degradation led us to slightly modify our predictions. The most likely strategy remains a two-stop, but the combinations become Soft-Medium-Soft or Medium-Hard-Soft.”
For Ferrari and its rivals, this means balancing the performance advantage of softer compounds against the need to avoid excessive overheating and maintain competitive lap times throughout each stint. Teams will need to decide not only when to stop, but also which compound offers the most suitable combination of pace and consistency for the different phases of the race.
Why Pirelli believes the hard tyre could be important at Interlagos
Although the soft and medium compounds provide greater grip, the hard tyre could play a particularly important role in the Brazilian Grand Prix because of its lower operating temperature window.
According to Dario Marrafuschi, the hardest available compound may offer advantages in terms of maintaining consistent performance over a longer stint, particularly if track temperatures remain relatively low.
“In reality, the hard compound comes into play precisely because of its characteristics: being a hard compound, it offers less grip than the medium and soft, but it also has a slightly lower operating temperature window than the medium and an even lower one than the soft.”
“Considering that today should be a dry race, without rain, and that temperatures will nevertheless be slightly lower, we are evaluating the possibility that the hard could provide a consistent stint because it would operate within its correct working window.”
That does not mean the hard tyre will necessarily produce faster lap times than the other compounds. Its potential strength lies in its ability to operate more consistently under the expected conditions.
“This doesn’t mean it will be faster, in terms of performance, than the medium and soft, but simply that it will operate within the optimal window for which it was designed. Consequently, in our opinion, it will maintain good consistency of performance. And that’s why it could come into play.”
The distinction is important because a tyre that is slower over a single lap can still offer a valuable strategic alternative if it maintains its performance over a longer distance. Teams considering the hard compound will therefore have to weigh the initial performance deficit against the potential benefit of extending a stint.
Brazilian GP pit stop windows: Soft-Medium-Soft versus Medium-Hard-Soft
Pirelli has identified two leading strategies for a dry Brazilian Grand Prix, with remarkably little separating them in terms of predicted total race time.
The first is a Soft-Medium-Soft strategy, which would see drivers start on the soft tyre, switch to the medium for the middle stint and return to the soft compound for the final part of the race.
“The first option is therefore Soft-Medium-Soft, with the first pit stop window opening between laps 17 and 23, as usual with a six-lap window, while the second window is expected on lap 42.”
The alternative is Medium-Hard-Soft, which provides a different distribution of stint lengths. Drivers would begin on the medium compound before switching to the hard tyre, allowing them to extend the middle phase of the race and delay their final stop.
“For the Medium-Hard-Soft strategy, starting on the medium, the first window will open on lap 23. The second, using the hard, will instead be postponed until after lap 50. The two strategies differ by just three seconds over the total race time, so it is likely that both will be used.”
The minimal difference between these approaches suggests that teams could adopt different strategies depending on their starting positions, expected traffic and the way their cars manage the available compounds.
The contrast between tyre sequences and stint lengths can also be explored through the F1 tyre and stint analysis, which allows comparisons of compound usage and race strategies across the championship.
Alternative Brazilian GP tyre strategies could cost up to ten seconds
Beyond the two preferred approaches, Dario Marrafuschi also outlined several secondary strategies that could be considered, although Pirelli expects them to be slower over the complete race distance.
One alternative is Soft-Hard-Soft, replacing the medium compound in the middle of the race with the hard tyre. However, Pirelli’s calculations indicate that this combination would carry a notable performance disadvantage.
“The secondary options instead include Soft-Hard-Soft in place of Medium-Hard-Soft, an even slower strategy, by around five seconds compared with the best strategy.”
A traditional one-stop strategy is also theoretically possible, beginning on the medium compound and completing the race on the hard tyre. Nevertheless, the expected degradation makes this an unattractive option.
“The one-stop strategy, on the other hand, does not appear likely to be used. It would involve a Medium-Hard combination, but it would be more than ten seconds slower over the entire race distance, so it is unlikely to be chosen.”
Another important consideration is the potential benefit of the undercut, particularly when two-stop strategies create more opportunities for drivers to gain positions through earlier pit stops.
“As for the undercut with a two-stop strategy, we believe it could provide an advantage of between 1.5 and 2 seconds, naturally speaking about dry track conditions.”
“In the case of a single stop, because the pit stop window would open later, the advantage would be around three seconds. But we believe that, with a two-stop strategy, the undercut could be worth between 1.5 and 2 seconds.”
These estimates underline the importance of pit stop timing at Interlagos. Even a relatively small difference between strategies could become significant when drivers are fighting closely on track, making the execution of each stop and the choice of compound particularly important.
What happens to Brazilian GP tyre strategy if it rains?
Brazil has frequently produced unexpected developments because of its unpredictable weather, and rain remains another potentially decisive factor in the strategic calculations for the São Paulo Grand Prix.
As demonstrated during Saturday’s qualifying session, wet conditions can play a major role at Interlagos at this time of year. A return of heavy rain would completely change the tyre strategy picture, potentially making the extreme wet compound the preferred option.
In particularly heavy rainfall, the full wet tyres should offer substantial durability. However, the amount of spray generated by the cars could become so severe that race control might be forced to suspend the race.
If the full wet tyres are required, Pirelli believes that two fresh sets should be sufficient to cover the entire Grand Prix distance.
“If it rains consistently, the full wet tyres can last longer. If, on the other hand, the track is drying, the situation changes. It’s something extremely variable, really very variable, so it wouldn’t be right to make predictions.”
The level of tyre degradation would also depend heavily on driving style and the way individual drivers manage the conditions.
“In any case, to conclude this point, a lot will depend on the driver’s hands. Degradation is quite evident, so I believe the two sets of extreme wet tyres remaining available will be sufficient to complete the race on full wets.”
With both dry and wet strategies potentially influencing the race, teams will need to remain flexible throughout the afternoon. The 2026 Brazilian Grand Prix at Interlagos could therefore develop into a particularly demanding strategic contest, especially if the weather changes after the start.
For Ferrari, the challenge will be to identify the right tyre sequence and respond effectively to changing conditions. Whether the race remains dry and follows the predicted two-stop pattern or rain forces teams to reconsider their plans, tyre management and pit stop timing could prove decisive in determining the outcome.
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