Brazil GP strategy analysis: Ferrari’s struggles and how a lucky puncture fueled Verstappen’s comeback. A detailed analysis of the Brazil GP strategy.

An exciting chase

The races at the circuit honoring José Carlos Pace never disappoint. Whether satisfied with the result or not, fans were treated to an exceptional spectacle. Max Verstappen delivered an impressive comeback, aided by a setup change and a new power unit, rising from the pit lane to the podium despite three pit stops and numerous overtakes, particularly during the first stint.

Strategic recap of the race

As anticipated by Pirelli and our analysis, the two-stop strategy dominated. Only two drivers, Liam Lawson and Nico Hulkenberg, ran a single stop, finishing in the points and showing the viability of this approach. Both Red Bulls, however, completed the race with three stops each.

Lando Norris won using an M-S-M strategy, also adopted by George Russell, Oscar Piastri, Alex Albon, and Franco Colapinto. Kimi Antonelli finished second using S-M-M, a route also followed by Oliver Bearman (6th), Ayumu Hadjar, Pierre Gasly, and Carlos Sainz (the only one not scoring points). H-M-M was used by Esteban Ocon’s Haas and the Aston Martins of Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll. Liam Lawson ran S-M, Nico Hulkenberg M-S, Verstappen H-M-M-S for third place, and Yuki Tsunoda H-M-M-M, finishing 17th. Retirements included Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, and Bortoleto. For Ferrari, strategy was largely irrelevant as Charles Leclerc retired on lap 6 following the Piastri–Antonelli incident, while his Maranello teammate suffered severe floor damage on the first lap and retired mid-race.

Contacts and penalties

During the 71-lap race, a Safety Car was deployed on lap 2 due to Bortoleto’s retirement, followed by a VSC after the lap 6 restart due to the Piastri–Antonelli–Leclerc incident. These incidents led to penalties affecting the final results. Oscar Piastri was deemed responsible and received a 10-second penalty, while Hamilton was penalized 5 seconds for contact with Colapinto, retiring shortly after due to damage from two separate incidents with Sainz and the Alpine driver. Tsunoda’s race was heavily impacted by two penalties totaling 20 seconds, dropping him to 17th despite competitive pace.

Verstappen sees a chance

The four-time world champion staged a remarkable comeback, which was partly down to his team’s work. The Red Bull engineers optimized the car’s setup and provided a fresh power unit, helping Max recover from a pit lane start. A fortuitous puncture on lap 6 turned a potential disaster into a blessing. Upon learning of the puncture via radio, Max Verstappen switched to Medium tires, temporarily dropping to last place. By the second restart, he had a significant tire advantage and was already in fifth by lap 21 after overtaking Albon. This advantage eventually helped him reach third despite three pit stops.

Max maintained strong pace on the Medium tires while managing the Softs excellently. He even had a chance to challenge for the lead on lap 51 when Norris pitted, though he was seven seconds behind. A Safety Car could have allowed him to further close the gap and fight for victory.

Controlled race for Norris and Antonelli

Aside from the Oscar Piastri incident, Kimi Antonelli controlled the race, holding second position throughout. Norris ran a calm, solo race in front.

Ten drivers within six seconds

The most remarkable aspect of the Brazilian Grand Prix was the finishing gaps. Despite nearly 60 laps without a Safety Car, no driver was lapped. Astonishingly, ten drivers, from Lawson in 7th to Stroll in 16th, finished within six seconds of each other, demonstrating the extremely tight midfield competition. This context explains Alpine’s decision to renew Colapinto despite his lack of points this season.