Belgian GP analysis: why Ferrari’s SF-26 could upset Mercedes at Spa-Francorchamps. Ferrari's Silverstone performance offers hope ahead of crucial Spa weekend.

Ferrari arrives at Spa convinced the SF-26 has the tools to fight Mercedes

After back-to-back victories in Barcelona and Silverstone, Ferrari heads into the Belgian Grand Prix believing the SF-26 has everything required to remain at the front of the Formula 1 field. While Spa-Francorchamps has traditionally been regarded as a circuit that suits Mercedes, the data gathered over recent race weekends suggests Ferrari may now possess a package capable of matching – or even outperforming – its main rival in key areas.

The momentum generated over the last two Grands Prix has reinforced confidence inside Maranello. Rather than relying on a single strength, the SF-26 now appears to combine aerodynamic efficiency, stable balance and improved power deployment into a package that can adapt to very different circuit characteristics. Those qualities could prove particularly valuable at Spa, where straight-line speed, energy management and confidence through high-speed corners all play a decisive role.

Silverstone revealed how much Ferrari has evolved

Ferrari’s performance at Silverstone offered far more than another victory. It provided further evidence that the team’s development programme is delivering consistent gains across multiple areas of the car.

Throughout the British Grand Prix weekend, the Maranello team demonstrated excellent preparation, arriving with a setup specifically designed to maximise straight-line performance without sacrificing overall balance. The engineers deliberately opted for a lower-downforce configuration, allowing the SF-26 to remain highly competitive on the straights while maintaining strong cornering performance through Silverstone’s fast and flowing sections.

Equally important was Ferrari’s improved energy management. The Maranello squad extracted impressive efficiency from its hybrid system, an area that has become increasingly important under the current Formula 1 regulations. The team’s approach attracted attention throughout the paddock, with several rivals closely analysing Ferrari’s solutions during the weekend.

Spa-Francorchamps presents a different challenge

Although Spa is very different from Silverstone, many of the characteristics that made Ferrari competitive in Britain could once again prove beneficial in Belgium.

The legendary circuit places enormous demands on every aspect of a Formula 1 car. The opening sector, stretching from Eau Rouge and Raidillon towards Les Combes, rewards low drag and efficient power deployment. Meanwhile, the long acceleration from Stavelot to the Bus Stop chicane once again puts the spotlight on top speed and battery deployment.

Between those sections lies a technical middle sector where mechanical grip, aerodynamic stability and efficient energy recovery become equally important. Maintaining the right balance across all three sectors is often the difference between fighting for pole position and struggling to remain in the leading group.

Can Ferrari overcome Mercedes’ traditional Spa advantage?

Mercedes has often enjoyed strong performances at Spa-Francorchamps thanks to the circuit’s emphasis on engine performance and straight-line efficiency. However, the Italian side appears far better prepared than it was earlier in the season.

The first ADUO power unit upgrade has already reduced part of Ferrari’s previous power deficit, while the latest aerodynamic developments have improved the SF-26’s efficiency without compromising stability. As a result, the gap that once separated Ferrari from Mercedes on high-speed circuits has narrowed considerably.

That sets the stage for what could become one of the most fascinating battles of the Belgian Grand Prix weekend. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc will be aiming to continue Ferrari’s recent momentum, while Mercedes will rely on George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli to defend its strong record at Spa.

With further upgrades planned by both teams during the second half of the Formula 1 season, the Belgian Grand Prix could provide another important indication of which development path is proving more effective. If Ferrari can reproduce the strengths displayed at Silverstone—particularly its balance, energy management and aerodynamic efficiency—the Scuderia will have every reason to believe another podium, and perhaps even victory, is within reach before attention turns to Hungary and Zandvoort.