Belgian GP, Ferrari: Spa will highlight the differences with Mercedes
The Formula 1 World Championship heads to Belgium for one of the most demanding circuits on the calendar, a venue that once again raises questions about how well the current regulations suit the latest generation of cars. After Charles Leclerc’s victory at Silverstone, Ferrari arrives at Spa-Francorchamps with renewed confidence, but the Belgian Grand Prix will provide a completely different type of test.
The win in Great Britain has injected the Scuderia with fresh momentum as it looks to build on its growing tally of victories by maximizing the strengths of the SF-26 while capitalizing on any weaknesses shown by its rivals.
Although Ferrari was not outright faster than Mercedes at Silverstone, the Italian team was able to fight the W17 on equal terms from Friday onwards. A key factor behind that competitiveness was the meticulous work carried out on power delivery management, an area that has shown continuous improvement throughout the season.
Belgian GP: Will Spa be another Silverstone for Ferrari?
The SF-26 excelled on a front-limited circuit during a weekend characterized by cool temperatures and the hardest tyre compounds available. It was a completely different scenario from Ferrari’s disastrous outing in Austria.
At Spielberg, the rear axle was constantly operating at its limit. The rear-limited nature of the circuit, combined with the characteristics of the current generation of Formula 1 cars, placed enormous stress on the rear tyres due to the aggressive deployment of electrical power—a challenge that was even greater for Ferrari as it attempted to compensate for its remaining power deficit.
High track temperatures and softer tyre compounds then combined to create the perfect storm for the Italian team.
On top of that came the setup direction chosen for Charles Leclerc, who was still searching for the confidence and feeling he had lost with the car. Silverstone offered the SF-26 a much more suitable environment, on a circuit that, despite its energy management challenges, ultimately proved to be less extreme than initially expected.
As has been highlighted since the beginning of the season, the most problematic sections for the current generation of Formula 1 cars are those featuring long full-throttle stretches without significant braking zones. At Silverstone, one such section extended from Woodcote to Vale, covering almost half the lap.
The decisive factor, however, was the presence of Silverstone’s famous high-speed corners—Copse, Maggotts, Becketts, Chapel and Stowe—which helped mask the areas where superclipping became most significant.
At Spa-Francorchamps, the situation could be very different. From La Source to Les Combes, only Eau Rouge will offer a meaningful opportunity to recover energy before that energy must then be carefully managed along the Kemmel Straight.
A similar scenario applies in the final sector, where energy deployment from Stavelot to the Bus Stop chicane will have to be optimized with great precision. These are precisely the types of sections where Mercedes is expected to thrive. The W17 has consistently proven to be the benchmark when it comes to converting stored electrical energy into real-world speed.
Since the opening race in Australia, the Anglo-German project has demonstrated outstanding efficiency in transforming braking energy into battery charge, making its clipping phases significantly more effective and potentially reducing their duration altogether.
Combined with the W17’s excellent traction characteristics, which provide exceptional rear-end stability, Mercedes gains a major advantage during power-limited phases of the lap. This is likely one of the key areas where Ferrari still trails its rival, with much of the difference stemming from a rear end that more easily falls outside its optimal operating window.
The low-drag configuration used successfully at Silverstone is expected to return in Belgium, with Ferrari once again prioritizing reduced aerodynamic resistance. Even with the previous floor specification, Charles Leclerc set the benchmark through the fast Maggotts-Becketts-Chapel sequence in qualifying, demonstrating an impressive level of aerodynamic stability that extended well beyond the additional downforce provided by the latest upgrades.
One of the remaining uncertainties concerns whether Ferrari will use the FTM system, alongside the likely debut of the Macarena Evo rear wing, which has been specifically optimized for low-downforce configurations.
Belgian GP: Will sector two be Ferrari’s only real opportunity?
The key question now is how the SF-26 will respond to Mercedes’ expected advantage around Spa-Francorchamps.
The middle sector will most likely be driven while limiting the use of electrical power as much as possible in order to preserve battery energy for the more demanding sections of the lap.
However, the Mercedes W17 could still make the difference there by benefiting from a superior state of charge (SoC) compared to its rivals, allowing it to build a valuable advantage over Ferrari even in a sector where the SF-26 has the characteristics needed to be highly competitive.
For that reason, Ferrari is not guaranteed to set the fastest middle-sector time, despite possessing the aerodynamic qualities required to challenge at the front. This season, achieving the correct energy balance is proving even more complicated than finding the ideal aerodynamic balance, despite the assistance provided by active aerodynamics.
Teams are expected to prioritize platform stiffness in order to maximize each car’s strongest characteristics. Spa-Francorchamps therefore presents a layout with relatively low overall energy density, with most of the energy demands concentrated in the opening and final sectors of the lap.
As a result, managing preparation laps and out-laps will become crucial, particularly when it comes to bringing the tyres into their ideal operating window. If drivers are forced to use extremely conservative deployment settings in order to preserve the battery’s state of charge, tyre preparation could suffer significantly.
In that scenario, teams may once again resort to multiple preparation laps—one focused on tyre warm-up and another dedicated primarily to recharging the battery before beginning the qualifying lap. Overall expectations remain relatively cautious. Even so, Ferrari has demonstrated that the major software update introduced in Barcelona, which continues to undergo constant refinement, has enabled the team to defend itself against Mercedes on almost equal terms.
The cooler weather expected at Spa, combined with the low-drag aerodynamic specification, should also help Ferrari maintain strong aerodynamic efficiency, representing another encouraging sign for the Scuderia.
With McLaren struggling whenever energy management becomes a decisive factor and Red Bull continuing to face its own difficulties, attention is firmly focused on the two teams that have shared every victory so far this Formula 1 season.
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