F1 strategy: two-stop race expected, but many factors could shape the Austrian GP
The Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring is expected to be run in extremely high temperatures, both in terms of ambient conditions and track surface, placing significant stress on the tyres. Rear tyre management will once again be one of the most important aspects of the race. However, compared to another scorching event like the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona, there are several additional factors that could influence tyre management and completely change the strategic picture.
The final moments of Saturday’s qualifying session could easily have produced a very different starting grid for today’s race. Max Verstappen’s late incident dramatically altered the outcome. What could have been an all-Mercedes front row instead became a grid featuring one Mercedes on pole position and a Ferrari lining up alongside it after the yellow flags interrupted the final flying laps.
The incident significantly changed Ferrari’s prospects in particular. The late yellow flag allowed the Scuderia to gain more than one position on the grid, especially considering that without Max Verstappen‘s mistake, the Dutchman would almost certainly have had a strong chance of securing at least third place. Ferrari’s decision to send its drivers out earlier than its rivals ultimately paid off, giving the Italian team a much stronger opportunity to play its cards during Sunday’s race.
After qualifying, Lewis Hamilton immediately acknowledged that beating Mercedes on outright race pace would be an enormous challenge. Ferrari had already shown signs of lacking long-run speed during Friday’s practice sessions, with the SF-26 struggling to match Mercedes over extended stints.
The issue was not simply tyre degradation. Instead, the Ferrari suffered from excessive tyre sliding, which created balance problems and prevented the drivers from maintaining a consistently competitive pace over long runs.
That is precisely why Ferrari’s overnight work between Friday and Saturday proved so important. Although the engineers were unable to completely close the gap to the front, they made significant progress with the setup. Qualifying itself suggested that, without those improvements, the deficit could easily have exceeded three tenths of a second. Starting from second and third on the grid therefore gives Lewis Hamilton hope that race strategy could become Ferrari’s biggest weapon in trying to challenge Mercedes.
Two-stop strategy expected as top teams save two sets of hard tyres
So what are the strategic options for the Austrian Grand Prix? With track temperatures expected to approach 50°C and considering Pirelli’s tyre allocation for the weekend, virtually every team is expected to favour a two-stop strategy. It is therefore no surprise that all of the leading teams chose to save two sets of hard tyres specifically for Sunday’s race.
According to Pirelli’s simulations, the theoretically fastest strategy is Medium-Hard-Hard, followed closely by an alternative using one Hard stint and two Medium stints. Interestingly, the Italian tyre manufacturer had originally expected more teams to preserve two sets of Medium tyres instead of two Hard sets, a strategy adopted by many midfield teams.
The front-running teams, however, preferred the more conservative approach, giving themselves greater flexibility should a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car appear. Having two sets of Hard tyres available also provides more options to respond to an undercut attempt or to adapt to any race neutralisation.
“It’s interesting that only the top teams, the four leading teams, kept two sets of hard tyres. I wasn’t expecting that because the C3 and C4 compounds are actually very similar. The C4 offers slightly more grip, but degradation is broadly comparable. The leading teams probably wanted to cover more possible scenarios given the degradation levels we’ve seen,” explained Pirelli’s Simone Berra.
On paper, teams could even consider a three-stop race. However, the same concern that existed in Barcelona remains: traffic. One of the main reasons Lewis Hamilton’s successful three-stop strategy worked so well in Spain was that the British driver never became trapped behind slower cars. Instead, he benefited while the Mercedes drivers, running a two-stop strategy, found themselves catching backmarkers.
The situation at the Red Bull Ring is slightly different, not least because the lap is considerably shorter than at many other Formula 1 circuits. That naturally increases the likelihood of encountering traffic more frequently throughout the race.
Another particularly interesting factor also emerges. According to information gathered by Pirelli through discussions with the drivers, following another car in Austria appears to be more difficult than it was in Spain simply because of the characteristics of the circuit itself. On top of that, the Red Bull Ring’s altitude brings higher operating temperatures and lower oxygen levels, both of which influence cooling and overall tyre behaviour.
Why tyre degradation in Austria differs from Barcelona
The different characteristics of the Red Bull Ring can also have a major influence on tyre degradation itself. In Barcelona, with its many medium and high-speed corners, teams had to carefully protect not only the rear tyres but also the front axle. It was no coincidence that George Russell complained of understeer during his second stint, precisely when his tyres first began to show signs of struggling.
At the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, drivers generally manage their pace through the faster corners to preserve the front tyres while simultaneously preventing excessive rear tyre wear. High levels of downforce on a circuit with relatively low grip and aggressive asphalt help reduce tyre sliding through the long, fast corners.
Austria presents a very different challenge. Besides having fewer high-speed corners, those corners are significantly shorter than Barcelona’s long Turn 3 and Turn 9. The characteristics of this year’s Formula 1 cars have once again made the rear axle the primary limitation after recent seasons, when the incredible cornering speeds generated by ground-effect cars had also created substantial front tyre concerns.
In reality, teams discovered during Friday’s practice sessions that placing excessive stress on the front axle through the faster corners actually becomes counterproductive for overall front tyre performance. Nevertheless, the rear tyres remain the determining factor in overall degradation because these current-generation Formula 1 cars deliver enormous torque through the electric motor as soon as they accelerate out of slower corners.
Another important factor is that the Red Bull Ring lap is extremely short, meaning the cars repeatedly pass through the same demanding corners in rapid succession, leaving relatively little opportunity for the tyres to recover between heavy loading phases.
“It’s simply a matter of finding the right balance so that you don’t overload the front axle. If you want to protect the rear tyres, you still can’t exceed the front tyres’ operating limit. In my opinion, achieving the correct balance has been particularly complicated this weekend because, as I mentioned, there are several high-speed corners where the front tyres tend to become overloaded,” Berra added.
According to Pirelli, even the Soft compound cannot be completely ruled out as a strategic option. During practice, teams observed that once given time to cool and recover, the softest tyre was capable of improving its performance once again. If managed carefully, it could therefore become an effective race tyre under the right circumstances.
Its use would likely be limited to very short stints, such as after a Safety Car, or perhaps at the race start, where the additional grip could help drivers gain valuable positions during the opening laps before switching to a more conventional two-stop strategy.
Leave a Reply