Analysis: is Charles Leclerc a candidate for victory in the 2021 Turkish GP?. Is Charles a candidate for victory?.

Lewis Hamilton will at best start the 2021 Turkish Grand Prix from eleventh place on the grid at Istanbul Park. An engine penalty will take him there in case he will be able to put his Mercedes on pole position on Saturday, which seems to be highly likely after the first day of practice. The world champion was fastest both on a lap and in the long runs although he too had to struggle with understeer. His lead is big enough that he has the chance to win even starting from midfield.

Max Verstappen cannot use the opponent’s penalty at the moment as the Red Bull drivers complained of serious balance problems. They fell from understeer to oversteer, regardless of whether the cars were trimmed more or less downforce. Does it have to do with the fact that the lap times are two to three seconds faster than the simulations calculated because of the new asphalt?

So the basic set-up did not fit for all of them as Mercedes has apparently responded more effectively than the competition. The drivers praised the work on the track surface, which was so slippery in 2020. “It’s a completely different racetrack with grip. We’re five seconds faster than last year,” explained Daniel Ricciardo.

In Friday’s form, Red Bull even had to fear Ferrari. But with Charles Leclerc they only have one driver to fight on Sunday: Carlos Sainz starts from the back of the grid due to the use of the fourth engine.

Carlos could be joined by other drivers with engine penalties before the race: rumors in the paddock speak of Sebastian Vettel and George Russell, as McLaren is currently not planning to change the engine. In view of Charles Leclerc’s strength, for Scuderia Ferrari it will be important to finish in the points with both cars, especially since you have to expect that Carlos Sainz will make it into the top ten with the speed of his SF21 car.

Why is Hamilton just changing the engine?
Mercedes didn’t keep it a secret for long. Even before the first practice session, the FIA ​​reported that Lewis Hamilton is getting the fourth engine. And the fourth exhaust, which is within the allowed quota. This means that the world champion only has to go back ten starting positions. And if he makes it to the front row in qualifying, he will still start the race from 11th or 12th place. With the speed that the Mercedes showed on the first day, he can easily make it onto the podium.

The Mercedes measure shows two things. First: The problem lies in the internal combustion engine. Turbocharger, MGU-H, MGU-K, battery and control units create the expected life cycle. Second: This season is so close that you don’t want to fall behind Max Verstappen and Red Bull.

In the worst case scenario, if the entire power unit had been replaced, Hamilton would have had to start from 19th place if other Mercedes customers had not changed the engine. But you don’t want to rely on that. Eight places further ahead at the start increase the chances of maximum damage limitation. Hamilton demands of himself: “I have to take pole position if I want to have a chance with my penalty.”

Mercedes flew all engines back to England after the GP Russia, where they were carefully examined in Brixworth. It was found that Valtteri Bottas’ fourth engine, which was replaced as a precaution in Sochi after Friday practice, can no longer be used for racing.

This made the caution in the Mercedes camp even greater. Therefore, Hamilton’s fourth engine was combined to the five other components of one of the older engines. An engineer: “This is a job that you only want to do in the factory because it is so complex. We have only mixed components from different power units on the track once in the past seven years.”

Can Ferrari really challenge at Istanbul Park?
Charles Leclerc lost just 0.166 seconds on one lap on Hamilton, who was fastest in practice. And that in the second attempt. In the first, the Ferrari driver got stuck in the chicane. After a cooling lap, Charles was the only one besides Hamilton to break the 1.24 barrier. He lost time in the last sector, of all things, and that should actually be the Ferrari sector because of the many slow corners. If the first attempt had worked, you still have to subtract one to two tenths.

So you have to trust the near-winner of Silverstone in Istanbul to play a prominent role in qualifying, even if Ferrari admit that they may have driven with less fuel than Mercedes and had turned up the engine more. Charles Leclerc gained three tenths on the straights alone in his fastest lap compared to Hamilton. In the long run, Ferrari has no chance against Mercedes. But Charles can take on a Red Bull with balance problems.

Carlos Sainz focused exclusively on long runs. The Spaniard will start from behind because of the new hybrid Carlos completed the longest racing simulation with 23 laps on the medium tyre. And was on average only two tenths slower per lap than Perez, who only managed half the distance.

GP Turkey 2021: long run times: