Pirelli expects Ferrari to be firmly in contention for victory at the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix, with McLaren also likely to feature in a strategically unpredictable race. According to Pirelli chief engineer Simone Berra, the one-stop and two-stop options are separated by very little, potentially encouraging teams to pursue different approaches at the Hungaroring.
The Budapest circuit could once again produce a fascinating tactical contest. Tyre degradation has proved slightly higher than Pirelli anticipated on Friday, while the Hard compound has seen limited representative running. Combined with the unusually close simulations, those factors leave several possible routes to victory open for teams already weighing the Hungaroring’s tyre and overheating challenges.
Hungarian GP tyre strategy balanced between one and two stops
“From the data collected and the simulations carried out between yesterday and today, we can see that the one-stop and two-stop strategies are extremely close,” Simone Berra explained. “Degradation is slightly higher than we expected on Friday and, after recalibrating the simulations, we saw that the two-stop strategy could be marginally faster on paper. The difficulty, however, would be having to make overtakes if the others stopped only once.
“We do not know whether overtaking here will be easier or more difficult than in the past under the new regulations. Perhaps it will be more achievable this year.”
The uncertainty could result in a strategically diverse race rather than the entire field committing to the same plan. Tyre allocations retained after qualifying also offer clues about the options different teams may be considering, with the Hungarian Grand Prix starting order further increasing the importance of track position.
“We could see different approaches, with some teams choosing the two-stop strategy and others opting for one stop,” Simone Berra continued. “The leading teams have retained two sets of Hard tyres, which suggests they intend to make two pit stops. Others have kept only one Medium and one Hard, leading us to think they could choose a one-stop strategy.”
Soft tyre could become an important race weapon
Despite the relatively high degradation, Simone Berra believes the Soft tyre could provide teams with a valuable additional option. All three available compounds remain viable, with the C5 performing more effectively than Pirelli initially anticipated.
“All three compounds are in play. We are positively surprised by how well the C5, the Soft, is working,” the Pirelli engineer said. “It was even considered the best compound on Friday, when the grip level was particularly low. In those conditions, it had an advantage over the C3 and C4 during the long runs because it slid less and generated lower surface temperatures, so its degradation was in line with the other two compounds.
“However, given the track evolution between Friday and Sunday, I expect the C3 and C4 to slide less today and to be more suitable as race tyres. Using the Soft for the opening stint could nevertheless be the right choice, partly because it provides more grip at the start and there is some distance to cover before Turn 1.”
The potential value of the Soft adds another dimension to a weekend in which Ferrari’s long-run performance has inspired confidence. Extra grip off the line could be particularly valuable at the Hungaroring, where overtaking can be difficult and early track position may influence the remainder of the strategy.
Pirelli outlines the optimal pit-stop windows
According to Pirelli’s simulations, the leading combinations for teams pursuing a two-stop strategy are Soft-Hard-Medium, Medium-Hard-Hard and Medium-Hard-Soft. Under those plans, the first pit-stop window would fall between laps 15 and 20, followed by a second stop between laps 44 and 50.
For a one-stop race, the preferred strategy is Medium-Hard, with the tyre change expected between laps 25 and 32. Teams could also bring the stop forward in an attempt to undercut a rival running ahead.
“The undercut is not extremely powerful, but it can provide an advantage if you are genuinely one and a half seconds behind the car in front,” Simone Berra confirmed.
Teams must therefore balance the theoretical pace advantage of two stops against the time potentially lost in traffic. A one-stop approach offers stronger track-position protection, while a two-stop strategy could unlock more outright speed if drivers are able to overtake efficiently.
Pirelli sees Ferrari and McLaren fighting for victory
Simone Berra did not rule out the possibility that some teams deliberately sacrificed single-lap performance by choosing a set-up designed to protect the rear axle during the race. That trade-off could prove important in especially hot conditions, with asphalt temperatures expected to reach between 50°C and 52°C.
“In my opinion, it is a sensible choice because we will have particularly high temperatures today,” he explained. “We are talking about track temperatures of 50–52°C, which are significant. The rear tyres generate thermal degradation and are much more complicated to manage during the race, both in terms of temperature and potentially graining.
“Teams prefer to lose performance at the front and protect the rear because, if you destroy the rear tyres, you can make much less of a difference under traction and defending becomes more difficult.”
That rear-tyre management challenge may reinforce Ferrari’s prospects, with the team already regarded as a serious contender following its encouraging race simulations. McLaren team principal Andrea Stella also identified Ferrari as the Hungarian GP favourite, although Pirelli expects McLaren to remain closely involved.
Simone Berra declined to make a definitive prediction, instead anticipating an open race in which the outcome could depend on strategic execution.
“I definitely see Ferrari as strong and I think they can fight for victory,” he said. “McLaren are an interesting question mark. Lando Norris was quick and the car appears very well balanced in the middle sector, which certainly helps from a degradation perspective. […] In my opinion, McLaren will also be part of the battle.
“It will be an interesting race because there are many strategic scenarios open and several teams capable of fighting for victory.”
With Ferrari and McLaren closely matched, every tyre choice could carry significant consequences. The fine margins seen during Hungarian GP qualifying are now set to give way to a race shaped by degradation, rear-tyre protection, overtaking and the timing of each pit stop.
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