Formula 1’s 2026 cars could reach 346 km/h at the Circuit of The Americas while producing qualifying lap times more than two seconds slower than in 2025. Simulations for the United States Grand Prix suggest a striking contrast between improved straight-line speeds and substantial losses through the corners, creating a demanding technical challenge for Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Red Bull.
Michal Lubieniecki’s calculations produce a projected qualifying lap of 1:34.582, compared with the 1:32.510 that secured Max Verstappen pole position in 2025. The predicted deficit of 2.072 seconds illustrates how the new technical regulations have changed the balance between top speed, cornering performance and energy management, even though the latest cars are expected to be considerably faster along Austin’s longest straights.
Why 2026 F1 cars could be two seconds slower at Austin
The most revealing aspect of the simulation is that higher maximum speeds do not necessarily translate into faster lap times. Along the main straight, the projected speed rises from 312 km/h in 2025 to 321 km/h in 2026. The difference is even more pronounced on the back straight, where the new-generation cars could reach 346 km/h compared with 324 km/h last year.
That represents a gain of 9 km/h on the main straight and 22 km/h on the back straight. However, the predicted improvements are more than offset by slower cornering speeds, with losses reaching approximately 20 km/h in certain sections of the circuit.
The high-speed esses in the opening sector and the final part of the lap are particularly important in this comparison. These sequences reward aerodynamic performance, stability and the ability to maintain speed through consecutive corners, areas where the simulation indicates a significant difference between the two generations of Formula 1 machinery.
The contrast also provides useful context for Ferrari’s efforts to improve the SF-26. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton face a circuit where outright straight-line performance is only one part of the equation, while Ferrari’s planned Austin upgrades form another important element of the team’s preparations.
Once competitive running begins, the actual differences between drivers and teams can be examined using the F1 qualifying telemetry and corner comparison, which allows speed traces, braking behaviour and corner performance to be studied in greater detail.
Austin braking analysis reveals a major change for 2026
Braking performance is another area in which the 2026 regulations are expected to produce noticeable differences. Brembo’s engineering simulations classify the Circuit of The Americas as the most demanding American Formula 1 venue for braking systems, awarding it a difficulty rating of four out of five.
Despite this demanding classification, drivers use their brakes at only six points around the lap, accumulating less than 15 seconds of braking time. Four of those braking zones are rated Hard, one Medium and one Light.
Turn 1 represents the most severe braking event. Cars are expected to decelerate from 305 km/h to 93 km/h in just 3.11 seconds, covering 144 metres during the process. The estimated peak deceleration reaches 4.3g, while pedal force rises to 123 kg and braking power reaches 1,760 kW.
The comparison at Turn 12 is particularly revealing because it demonstrates how the braking characteristics have evolved from 2025 to 2026.
- Braking distance: 126 metres in 2025 versus 166 metres in 2026, an increase of 40 metres.
- Braking duration: 2.72 seconds in 2025 compared with 3.42 seconds in 2026.
- Brake pedal force: 130 kg in 2025 against a projected 110 kg in 2026.
- Deceleration: 4.2g in 2025 versus an expected 4g in 2026.
Although the estimated pedal force and deceleration are lower, the cars require substantially more distance and time to complete the braking phase. The additional 40 metres at Turn 12 is especially significant because the corner follows one of the circuit’s longest straights and represents an important overtaking opportunity.
FIA confirms 2026 United States GP energy recovery limits
Beyond the changes in braking and cornering, energy management will be central to performance at Austin. The FIA’s Power Unit Information document, published on 22 October, establishes the electrical energy recovery and deployment parameters governing the United States Grand Prix.
The maximum MGU-K energy recovery allowance is 8.5 MJ per lap in qualifying and during race running without Overtake Mode. That figure increases to 9 MJ when the overtaking system is active. Free practice sessions and non-race out-laps also carry a 9 MJ limit.
These relatively generous recovery allowances are particularly relevant at a circuit combining heavy braking events, long acceleration zones and extended sequences of corners. The parameters also suggest that excessive super-clipping, where electrical energy is recovered while the driver remains at full throttle, is not expected to become a major requirement.
The FIA has additionally defined a Power Limited Distance of 2,847 metres and a maximum rate of power-unit output reduction of 100 kW per second.
Although the MGU-K can provide up to 350 kW, the amount of electrical power available decreases progressively at higher speeds in accordance with the governing deployment curves.
How Overtake Mode and electrical deployment will work at COTA
The electrical deployment strategy at Austin is divided into different sections of the circuit. During the race, the alternative Alt 1 curve applies between Turns 4 and 8 and again between Turns 12 and 20. The Base Standard and Base Overtake curves govern the main overtaking areas.
To qualify for Overtake Mode, a driver must be within one second of the car ahead at the designated detection point, situated 5,326 metres from the beginning of the lap. Activation is then permitted at 5,420 metres, shortly before the start-finish line.
These rules add another variable to the performance comparison between the 2025 and 2026 cars. Straight-line speed depends not only on the car’s aerodynamic configuration but also on the electrical deployment permitted at different points around the lap.
Recorded maximum speeds can be explored in the Formula 1 top-speed comparison, although speed-trap figures alone cannot establish the relative engine performance of competing cars.
Qualifying simulation points to an unusual energy recovery balance
Lubieniecki’s simulation also offers an insight into how drivers could recover the energy needed to complete a competitive qualifying lap. The original calculation assumed a maximum energy recovery allowance of 8 MJ per lap, with the majority generated through conventional braking.
Under those initial assumptions, the predicted energy recovery was distributed as follows:
- Braking: 57% of total recovery, equivalent to 4.56 MJ.
- Partial-throttle running: 25%, equivalent to 2 MJ.
- Lifting off the accelerator: 18%, equivalent to 1.44 MJ.
The calculation therefore indicated that Austin’s energy demands could be met with virtually no reliance on super-clipping. Instead, the braking zones, partial-throttle sections and opportunities to lift off the accelerator would provide the energy required within the assumed limit.
However, the FIA subsequently established an official qualifying recovery allowance of 8.5 MJ, exceeding the original simulation assumption by 0.5 MJ. The governing body also specified the deployment curves and the particular sections of the circuit where alternative power-reduction modes may operate.
Consequently, the simulated qualifying time of 1:34.582 and the projected distribution of recovered energy will need to be recalculated using the final regulatory parameters. The existing figures remain a useful indication of the potential performance differences, but they should not be treated as definitive predictions of qualifying results.
Why Circuit of The Americas remains a demanding test for Ferrari
The Circuit of The Americas measures 5.513 kilometres and features 20 corners, with elevation changes reaching approximately 40 metres. Its layout combines three distinct technical challenges that require teams to balance several competing setup priorities.
The opening sector places considerable emphasis on rapid direction changes, while the second sector includes the long straight that creates important overtaking opportunities. The final sector introduces further demands on traction and rear-tyre performance.
Surface bumps and irregularities complicate the search for an ideal setup, requiring compromises between suspension characteristics and aerodynamic efficiency. These challenges become particularly relevant when assessing the different behaviour expected from the 2026 cars.
The United States Grand Prix will be contested over 56 laps, covering a race distance of 308.405 kilometres. Full weekend details are available in the 2026 United States GP schedule and Circuit of The Americas guide.
For Ferrari and its rivals, the central question is how effectively they can balance straight-line speed, cornering performance, braking stability and electrical energy deployment. The simulations suggest that the new cars will be faster than their predecessors in certain parts of the lap but considerably slower elsewhere, with Austin providing an important opportunity to measure how those differences translate into actual Formula 1 performance.
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