The cancellation of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix has extended the Formula 1 break by one week, but now the focus shifts to the next round of the 2023 Formula 1 season: in Monaco, the weekend will start on Friday at 13:30 Italian time with the first free practice sessions, Qualifying will take place at 16:00 on Saturday, and the race will start at 15:00. Red Bull arrives once again as the absolute favorite to take the race win. This is nothing new, but historically Saturday is crucial in Monte Carlo: will the SF-23 single-seater be able to compete for the Pole Position of the Monaco GP?
In the 8 editions held in the hybrid era, only three drivers have won starting from Pole Position: Nico Rosberg in 2014, Daniel Ricciardo in 2018, and Lewis Hamilton in 2019. Qualifying is crucial, but recent years have shown us that strategy and weather can easily change the outcome of the Grand Prix. We unfortunately remember very well how Charles Leclerc lost the race win last season, despite starting from P1.
2023 Monaco GP preview: On paper, the Maranello team should be able to challenge Red Bull on Saturday, watch out for Aston Martin
The Monaco street circuit needs no introduction: out of the 19 official corners, ten are taken at speeds below 150 km/h, while the Massenet and Swimming Pool sections are tackled between 170 and 180 km/h. It is there that Ferrari will have to try to limit the damage compared to Red Bull and Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin. Charles Leclerc has always demonstrated exceptional speed on the streets of his city, and his bold approach can make a positive or negative difference this weekend: unlike Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez, the Monegasque (and Fernando Alonso) have nothing to lose, and a good placement in Qualifying could make life difficult for the two Red Bull cars, as explained by F1 expert Andrea Vergani for formu1a.uno.
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In the first five qualifying sessions of the year, Ferrari has shown competitiveness similar to its rivals at low speeds: on paper, the SF-23 has a slight advantage over the RB19 and AMR23 in terms of minimum speed, but it suffers more during stop and go sections. In medium-speed corners, however, the SF-23 is the worst among the top four teams, confirming a significant lack of downforce, and it is precisely in this type of corner that Red Bull is unbeatable. Also, pay attention to Alpine, which, like Ferrari, struggles in higher-speed corners, and McLaren, which will suffer less from the drag of the MCL60 on the streets of the Principality.
According to ‘Meteo France,’ the entire weekend will be dry, although the risk of rain, which was higher a few days ago, should still be monitored. Both Daniel Ricciardo (2016) and Charles Leclerc (2022) lost the opportunity for victory starting from Pole Position due to errors by the pit wall in unstable weather conditions. In such a case, we could witness an interesting race like last year’s.
It is not surprising that Pirelli has brought the three softest compounds to the Principality: the C5 will be used in Saturday’s Qualifying, while the choice between mediums and hards on Sunday may depend on the lap in which the first (and only) pit stops take place. When deciding on the strategy, it will be important to consider the potential entry of the Safety Car and Virtual Safety Car, as well as to pay attention to the effectiveness of the overcut in Monaco.
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