2021 Azerbaijan GP Preview: focus on setup, upgrades and favourites in Baku. 2021 Azerbaijan GP Preview.

The classic in Monte Carlo was not quite the big hit in terms of spectacle and excitement. But that shouldn’t stop fans from turning on the TV again next weekend when the drivers take to the track laps at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. The race in Baku has a built-in guarantee of action. On the public roads at the edge of the Caspian Sea, there is always a lot of action.

After Monaco, another street circuit awaits the drivers. But that is the only thing the two circuits have in common. The asphalt strip in Baku is much wider in most places. The corners are much faster. And with the almost two-kilometre-long straight, there is one of the longest full-throttle sections on the entire calendar. In order to reduce drag and increase top speed, the engineers have to get much flatter wings off the shelf.

Setup:
Because of the long straights, downforce is noticeably reduced at the Baku City Circuit. But completely flat wings are not the right way either. The time loss in the narrow, curvy sections would simply be too high. In addition, more downforce also helps to keep the tyres in the right working window. So the engineers have to try to find a good compromise between downforce and top speed already from the free practice sessions.

At the front, the wings must not be set too flat either. In the angular corners, there is a risk of understeer if there is not enough grip when turning. In general, the drivers always have to contend with limited grip in Baku. The asphalt in some sections is newly laid every year and is therefore more slippery than on permanent courses.

This also has an effect on tyre wear, which is usually kept within limits despite the heat and high speeds. Compared to the last Formula 1 round in Baku in 2019, Pirelli is going down a notch with the tyre types: with the C3, C4 and C5 compounds, the three softest slicks are used, as in Monaco. Given that temperatures will be around the 25°C mark, it will be interesting to see if the tyre degradation forces teams to pit more than once.

Upgrades:
As already mentioned, slightly smaller rear wings will be bolted on in Baku than in the first five races of the year. Here we expect completely newly developed models, especially from the larger teams. Because downforce is not so important in Baku and testing new parts on the slippery asphalt is difficult, we don’t expect any other technology fireworks in Baku, ast he engineers prefer to use the limited practice time for setup work. On a permanent circuit like the one Le Castellet, which will host the seventh round of the 2021 Formula 1 season, there should be more new parts to discover again.

Favourites:
In Monaco, the pendulum swung relatively clearly in the direction of Red Bull. In Baku, Mercedes should now be much more competitive again, as the black-painted Silver Arrow is always strong when all-round qualities are required. The good aerodynamic efficiency provides a lot of downforce with relatively little air resistance. Given the small differences we saw in the first races, it will probably come down to who finds the better set-up for the race and keeps the tyres more consistently in the working window.

We also expect a different picture in the midfield than what we saw in Monaco. Ferrari had clearly won the duel against McLaren on the streets of Monte Carlo, but in Baku, Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo are likely to fight back strongly as a result of the good top speed of the Papaya Rocket. Norris, in his current top form, could perhaps even put Mercedes and Red Bull on the spot if everything goes perfectly for him.

Ferrari therefore might have to look more in the rear-view mirror because of the horsepower deficit. We see Alpha Tauri driver Pierre Gasly as the Scuderia’s first opponent, but the recently much-improved racers from Aston Martin must also be taken into account when it comes to awarding points. A question mark hangs over Alpine. The form curve of the blue racing cars resembles a roller coaster this year.

Because downforce does not play a major role, Williams and Alfa Romeo should not be completely written off either. The first four races on the crazy street circuit in Baku have already produced a few surprises. But if the two Haas drivers also want to collect their first points, things would have to get really crazy.