The Mercedes W17 clearly remains the car to beat in the current Formula 1 season, but the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka revealed an interesting duality. On one hand, it confirmed that the car’s competitiveness is not just about the power unit, but rather the result of a highly effective combination between engine and chassis. On the other hand, it also exposed situations in which the W17 can be attacked—particularly when it gets stuck in traffic and rivals are able to manage tire degradation effectively.
For the first time this season, excluding the China Sprint, both Mercedes drivers did not finish on the podium. This is a curious statistic considering the potential the W17 has shown so far, with a clear advantage over the competition. In reality, Suzuka highlighted very well the three key pillars on which the W17’s superiority is built, turning the synergy between power unit and chassis into a winning formula.
However, the Japanese circuit also revealed the more vulnerable side of Mercedes, something that had already been hinted at during the opening two Grands Prix. By responding blow for blow, it is possible to put the Silver Arrows under pressure. Unlike in Australia and China, though, tire degradation did not play a major role here, as it was minimal in Japan. Instead, the limited overtaking opportunities emphasized a W17 with two distinct faces.
While Andrea Kimi Antonelli delivered an exceptional performance, both in qualifying and during the race, not only in clean air during the second stint but also after overtaking Charles Leclerc in the early stages, George Russell struggled to shine. Antonelli even began to chip away at lap times after Oscar Piastri’s pit stop for fresh tires, demonstrating remarkable pace. In contrast, George Russell was never able to break free from traffic and show his full potential.
It is no secret that at Suzuka, with few DRS zones and a sequence of closely spaced straights, the power unit plays a crucial role. On this front, Mercedes-powered cars enjoy a significant advantage over their rivals. They are able not only to reach higher top speeds, but also to delay the derating phase for longer, effectively maintaining peak performance over extended periods. In these sections of the track, the advantage becomes twofold.
The key point, however, is that this “surplus” is built on an already excellent foundation. As previously analyzed after the Australian Grand Prix, the W17 is not just about engine power. It features a highly effective chassis, allowing the team to sacrifice performance in certain corners in order to maximize gains on the straights—a concept widely shared within the paddock. Looking at Suzuka qualifying data, for example, Mercedes proved to be the fastest in the iconic “snake” section.
This area had been designated by the FIA as a no-deployment zone, meaning that the hybrid system could be turned off in terms of power delivery and used only for energy recovery. While it is true that the section involves lower gears, keeping engine revs high and speeds in the medium-to-high range—factors that help turbo response when getting back on the throttle—the W17 still demonstrated strong cornering speed. In terms of minimum speed, it was able to match the Ferrari SF-26, which had recorded the fastest first sector using more energy along the main straight.
Only at Turn 6 did Ferrari show a clear advantage, a corner where last year McLaren was also able to highlight its downforce strengths. However, in that case the advantage was more consistent throughout the entire snake section, rather than concentrated in a single corner. Across the rest of the lap, performance levels remained very close through the corners, without a clear standout, unlike McLaren, which currently still lacks pure downforce.
This demonstrates that while the engine advantage is real and provides considerable operational flexibility, it is ultimately an extra layer added to an already highly competitive package. It is precisely this combination of factors—not a single standout feature—that makes the W17 so consistently strong. This was clearly evident in Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s performance: once he had clean air, his pace became untouchable, with a margin of six to seven tenths per lap.
On average, at least three tenths of that advantage came from the first sector alone, even when Oscar Piastri, leading the chasing group, was running in clean air. However, there is another interesting aspect shared by both McLaren and Mercedes: low tire degradation and the impact of running in traffic. In Australia and China, it had already been observed that McLaren could aim for the second row in qualifying.
The same was true in Japan, where the new asphalt provided higher grip and reduced graining, allowing teams to maintain a strong race pace. This helped compensate for McLaren’s lack of pure downforce and its previous difficulties in tire management seen at tracks like Melbourne and China. The solid race pace even surprised McLaren itself, beyond the progress made in power unit management ahead of the expected updates in Miami, which the Woking team hopes will unlock the full potential of the MCL40.
With limited tire degradation, chasing drivers were able to maintain a higher pace even during battles, which made life particularly difficult for George Russell on a track that is notoriously challenging for overtaking. The 2026 regulations have slightly changed race dynamics, offering new opportunities, but they have not revolutionized them. Without a clear pace advantage, overtaking remains extremely difficult.
This issue became even more evident for the British driver, who struggled to attack both Oscar Piastri—once the Australian took the race lead—and the two Ferrari drivers, ultimately losing a podium position. Charles Leclerc had already suggested after China that the only way to challenge Mercedes in this energy management game is to respond corner by corner, matching their battery deployment and recovery.
The problem is that over a full race distance, Mercedes manages tire wear more effectively and, when it chooses to push harder with the power unit, it has the ability to extend its advantage. At Suzuka, however, the sequence of three straights forced careful energy management, making overtaking anything but straightforward. This combination of factors made it particularly difficult even for George Russell to complete his attacks.
There is also another important factor to consider. Compared to Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who had already shown flashes of exceptional talent last season, George Russell made a setup error during this weekend by focusing too heavily on the front end of the car. On a resurfaced track that showed no signs of front tire graining, this choice proved counterproductive, destabilizing the rear of the car.
In clean air, even with Russell, there would likely have been room to discuss a potentially race-winning Mercedes performance. However, in traffic, the more vulnerable version of the W17 clearly emerged, highlighting that even the most dominant car on the grid still has areas where rivals can apply pressure.
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