Kimi Antonelli now leads a championship that could still change dramatically due to development and evolving regulations: Ferrari and McLaren are far from being out of contention.
The greatest champions know how to seize opportunities when they arise. Antonelli has shown he possesses that quality as well, making the most of the Safety Car to capitalize on his superiority during a weekend in which he was the fastest from start to finish. George Russell, on the other hand, wasted a key opportunity, despite Mercedes still clearly having the strongest car overall. However, the team fears that its advantage could disappear after the upcoming break. Everything will depend on how much Ferrari and McLaren can recover through development, also taking into account any regulatory adjustments.
Antonelli leads the championship
Antonelli’s race did not get off to the best possible start, as he dropped to sixth on the opening lap despite starting from pole position. The start was the only real mistake in an otherwise flawless weekend for the Italian driver—this time not due to incorrect turbo management, but because of an aggressive clutch release that delivered too much power to the wheels, causing excessive wheelspin. However, Kimi Antonelli remained composed, fighting his way back up to third place before taking advantage of the perfectly timed Safety Car to make his pit stop.
It is impossible to say whether, without that element of luck, the Italian would have been able to overtake Oscar Piastri and George Russell, but there is no doubt that at Suzuka he was the fastest driver on track. In the three laps in clean air before the neutralization, Antonelli gained 1.7 seconds on his teammate, and in the second stint he delivered remarkable consistency, completing eight consecutive laps at virtually identical times, with precision within a tenth of a second.
The new championship leader defeated George Russell on a circuit where the many high-speed corners should have favored the British driver. Throughout the weekend, however, Russell never seemed fully comfortable with the Mercedes, even making setup changes before qualifying that ultimately proved counterproductive. Russell was also unlucky with the Safety Car, but unlike Antonelli, he has several mistakes to reflect on.
At the restart, George Russell suffered oversteer on the exit of the final chicane, immediately finding himself short of energy and handing position to Lewis Hamilton. Shortly afterward, Charles Leclerc also took advantage of an unusual energy deployment phase on Russell’s Mercedes—whether or not the driver was responsible remains unclear—as the battery was incorrectly discharged. These are errors Mercedes can no longer afford, especially with Ferrari and McLaren now ready to capitalize.
McLaren improving faster than Ferrari
In his first Grand Prix appearance of the 2026 season, Oscar Piastri secured McLaren’s first podium. The Australian delivered an excellent start, successfully defending his position against the attacking Ferrari of Charles Leclerc. The Melbourne driver was also right to believe he could keep George Russell’s Mercedes behind, raising the question of whether, without the Safety Car, victory might have been within reach. This highlights how, in this era of Formula 1, running in clean air still provides a significant advantage, rewarding those who excel in qualifying and at the start.
McLaren also showed very strong race pace, even exceeding expectations. For the first time this year, tire performance at Suzuka was primarily limited by thermal degradation, exacerbated by track temperatures fluctuating between 30 and 37°C. As in previous seasons, the papaya cars proved effective in this area, while suffering more from graining, which had been evident in the opening two races. However, McLaren’s progress also comes from improved energy management.
It was not the introduction of new software that made the difference, but rather the development of more effective strategies for battery usage, supported by a deeper understanding of the Mercedes power unit’s behavior. This represents a key step forward for the Woking-based team.
Ferrari also celebrated another podium, even if it did not fully capitalize on its starting advantage this time. As already seen in China, the SF-26 struggled with energy management in the early laps, before improving once race pace stabilized and battery usage became more consistent. Despite being disadvantaged by the Safety Car, Charles Leclerc managed to finish ahead of a Mercedes and even showed slightly better pace than Oscar Piastri in the closing stages.
The only real shortcoming for the Monegasque driver in Japan was his inability to fully adapt to the new qualifying driving style, frustrating as it may be.
Vasseur and the “new championship”
Formula 1 now heads into a one-month break. The cancellation of April races comes at the worst possible time for Mercedes, which had hoped to maximize its technical advantage in the early part of the season. Ferrari team principal Frédéric Vasseur believes that a “new championship” will begin in Miami, hoping that development will reshuffle the competitive order.
Aerodynamic upgrades will play a crucial role, particularly for McLaren, which is the only team to have raced so far with the same package used during the initial Barcelona tests. Equally important will be the efforts of all teams to reach the minimum weight and, above all, to refine energy management strategies—one of the most critical aspects of these regulations.
For Ferrari, there is also an opportunity to recover ground on the engine side. In Maranello, expectations are not particularly high for the new compression ratio verification tests starting June 1, but there is hope of operating within the ADUO framework, which could allow the introduction of an updated engine from Canada or Barcelona, depending on the FIA’s decision.
Red Bull is also aiming to develop its power unit, although the RB22’s issues are not limited to the engine and also involve the chassis. The priority in Milton Keynes will at least be to emerge from a very crowded midfield battle currently involving Racing Bulls, Haas, Audi, and Alpine.
Regulations under discussion
The evolution of the competitive order is also linked to any adjustments that the FIA and teams may introduce to the regulations. Race dynamics are not necessarily the main issue, as many battles are decided under braking and through corners, producing genuine overtakes. However, there are still instances of position swapping on straights that feel somewhat artificial, even if similar situations existed under the previous DRS system.
What likely requires urgent attention is clipping, which causes large speed differences and, as demonstrated by Bearman’s crash, can be extremely dangerous.
In qualifying, on the other hand, changes are needed to allow drivers to push without excessive concern about energy management, at least in technical sections. Lewis Hamilton’s comments are particularly interesting, noting that at Suzuka it was possible to push until Turn 6, after which energy management strategies came into play. This is no coincidence, as the FIA had removed the requirement to use full electric power in full-throttle sections within the first sector.
Decoupling throttle application from battery deployment could be the right approach to restore emphasis on qualifying performance and driver skill. One thing is certain: many aspects could change in April, giving Antonelli yet another reason to enjoy a full month as championship leader.
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