Ferrari faces a demanding Singapore Grand Prix weekend at Marina Bay, where the rear-limited circuit characteristics and two qualifying sessions created by the Sprint format could expose some of the SF-26’s recurring weaknesses. Mercedes and McLaren could again become important reference points, while Red Bull may also return to the front on a circuit where traction, rear stability and qualifying performance will be decisive.
Marina Bay returns Formula 1 to a circuit with minimal energy severity, as demonstrated by recharge limits expected to be close to those seen in Monaco. The asphalt is also more conventional than the surface encountered at Sepang. It will be less aggressive, although it should still provide a certain level of abrasiveness.
The specific characteristics of the Marina Bay circuit layout make the track rear-limited, turning qualifying into one of the most important phases of the weekend. There will effectively be two qualifying sessions because of Saturday morning’s Sprint, making it essential to maximise the single free-practice session and ideally arrive at the circuit with a reasonably competitive baseline set-up already prepared.
From there, teams will have to understand how to make another step forward after Saturday’s race.
Ferrari could face the same rear-limited difficulties seen in Baku
The last time Formula 1 raced on a rear-limited street circuit, the SF-26 did not perform particularly well. Ferrari’s cars need to run with a stiffer-than-average configuration in order to make the aerodynamic platform work at its best, but that characteristic can sometimes conflict with drivability in certain areas of the circuit.
Baku represented an almost ideal circuit for Mercedes. The W17 has low drag among its strengths, together with extremely high combined power from the internal combustion engine and electrical system. The relatively low-abrasion asphalt also removed some of the major race-related set-up compromises that teams might otherwise have faced.
Singapore appears capable of creating a similar competitive picture, although the presence of five Straight Mode zones will dramatically reduce the drag generated by each car and minimise energy losses in this area.
According to AutoRacer, Ferrari is consequently considering reintroducing the cascade of flow diverters in the usual location of the rear active-aerodynamics actuator, a solution that was absent from the so-called “Macarena” specification.
The many traction zones, combined with the numerous bumps in the asphalt, will reward the cars that can transfer power to the ground most efficiently while keeping micro-sliding to a minimum. This is an area in which Mercedes has appeared particularly strong, with the W17’s rear end becoming aerodynamically even stronger following its latest upgrades, although a significant question mark remains over the package.
Why Ferrari’s strong Sepang rear-tyre management may not translate to Singapore
Ferrari managed the rear axle extremely well during the race at Sepang, but that performance has to be understood within the unique conditions of the Malaysian circuit. The track forced the cars to operate in an unusual window, particularly because the asphalt offered little grip while being extremely abrasive.
Track temperatures approaching 60°C made the situation even more extreme before falling by roughly 20°C for the race. Ferrari’s recent performance relative to its rivals can also be explored through the Ferrari vs F1 Rivals statistics.
The need for both Ferrari drivers to recover positions also placed significant stress on the rear axle, particularly because they had to transfer all available power to the asphalt as quickly as possible in order to remain close to the cars ahead. Although tyre overheating was less severe than on Saturday, it was still relatively easy to trigger.
Lewis Hamilton found an excellent compromise between the front and rear axles and was able to exploit the SF-26’s pace particularly well when the car was operating in its ideal conditions.
Charles Leclerc, as he explained himself, followed a less productive direction after FP2 and lost the positive feeling he had previously found. His high-fuel FP3 running on the Hard tyre confirmed that an important set-up change had been made.
The Monegasque most likely moved towards a more front-focused configuration, aiming for a straightforward race in which tyre management would be crucial and high levels of aerodynamic load would not necessarily be required.
Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton have shown different tendencies on rear-limited circuits
It was no coincidence that Charles Leclerc lost most of his time to Lewis Hamilton in the opening sector at Sepang, around half a second per lap, in a section dominated by acceleration from very low speeds.
Across the season, with the exception of Baku where Lewis Hamilton was running the high-downforce floor specification, Charles Leclerc has appeared to struggle more on rear-limited circuits. That trend seems to result from a combination of his driving style and the characteristics demanded by these cars.
Lewis Hamilton, by contrast, has generally excelled when a more neutral compromise between the front and rear axles has been required, while remaining slightly behind his team-mate on circuits that place greater emphasis on front-axle stress.
This should not be understood purely as a question of driving characteristics. It also reflects tendencies in set-up choices. The British Grand Prix provided one example, when Lewis Hamilton opted for a configuration that generated excessive understeer.
The changing balance between Ferrari’s two drivers throughout the season can be followed in the Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton season comparison.
Singapore qualifying remains a major concern for Ferrari
Leaving aside the differences between the two Ferrari team-mates, Singapore remains difficult to interpret for the Maranello team. Based on how the SF-26 has performed recently, qualifying at Marina Bay is likely to remain challenging, both because of the circuit characteristics and because Ferrari has often struggled to make the Soft compound work effectively.
With two qualifying sessions during the Sprint weekend, that weakness could become particularly costly. Ferrari therefore needs to extract as much information as possible from FP1, something also highlighted by the wider Singapore Sprint challenge facing the team.
The high rear-axle stress will represent a major test for both SF-26 cars, which will have to operate in very different conditions from those encountered at Sepang.
Ferrari also introduced aerodynamic refinements around the rear of the car last weekend. The solution further extends the outer upper profile of the diffuser, with the aim of increasing local downforce and improving its interaction with the airflow leaving the car.
If qualifying gaps and sector performance become particularly significant during the weekend, the differences between the leading cars can be followed through the F1 Qualifying Pace & Sector Comparison.
Mercedes will compare its aerodynamic packages in Singapore
As Toto Wolff has confirmed, Mercedes will carry out comparative testing between its Sepang package and the older specification during the Singapore weekend.
Mercedes drivers reported that Malaysia’s unusual asphalt had forced the W17 outside its ideal operating window, causing the car to respond to set-up changes in a non-linear way.
The team increased aerodynamic load by moving the centre of pressure rearwards, but at Sepang the engineers were unable to find the correct compromise, particularly because of the risk of tyre overheating. The additional aerodynamic load therefore could not be converted into actual lap time.
Singapore’s more conventional asphalt could provide a more representative picture of the package’s potential. However, low air density could create additional difficulties because of its effect on Power Unit efficiency and reliability, an issue that has emerged several times during the season.
High temperatures and humidity have always been an important factor in Singapore, making Mercedes’ situation one to watch closely.
Red Bull could return to the front at Marina Bay
Red Bull could also return to the leading group at a circuit that does not impose particularly complicated set-up compromises.
The RB22 has generally been competitive at venues where the required set-up has been easier to achieve, including Monaco and Baku. Upgrades introduced over recent races have improved drivability, making it easier for Max Verstappen to find a competitive compromise.
Red Bull’s strong available power could also simplify its qualifying task. Even on circuits that cannot be considered heavily power-limited, an advantage in this area can still become important over a qualifying lap.
McLaren needs answers after its latest aerodynamic upgrade
McLaren arrives in Singapore after two difficult weekends that coincided with the introduction of a major aerodynamic upgrade.
Andrea Stella has identified Singapore as an important event for the development of the MCL40, which has recently become less effective even in grip-limited sections, particularly slow corners, as well as in areas where drag becomes decisive. That has happened despite a small improvement in straight-line efficiency and despite the car appearing to operate within its intended aero-mechanical window.
The new package should provide greater long-term development potential, but it clearly failed to perform as expected in Baku and Malaysia. It has also appeared to make the car more difficult to drive, pointing towards a narrower operating window.
For Ferrari, that means Singapore is unlikely to produce an obvious competitive hierarchy before the cars run on track. The SF-26 showed encouraging rear-axle behaviour in Malaysia, but Marina Bay will ask very different questions. With traction, rear stability, Soft-tyre performance and two qualifying sessions all carrying increased importance, the weekend could quickly reveal whether the Scuderia has genuinely improved in one of the areas that has caused problems earlier in the season.
Leave a Reply