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Home » Why qualifying could decide the Madrid GP after Ferrari and Mercedes’ strong Friday

Why qualifying could decide the Madrid GP after Ferrari and Mercedes’ strong Friday

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Mercedes and Ferrari made an encouraging start to Formula 1’s first weekend at the Madring, but Friday’s running also produced an early warning that could shape the entire Madrid Grand Prix: overtaking may be extremely difficult. With Kimi Antonelli continuing his strong form after Monza and Ferrari showing promising pace, particularly on the medium tyre, qualifying is already emerging as one of the most important phases of the weekend.

McLaren endured a more complicated opening day, with Lando Norris unable to take part in FP2 because of a gearbox problem. Meanwhile, the red flag caused by Arvid Lindblad’s crash significantly reduced the teams’ long-run running, leaving major questions unanswered over tyre degradation, race pace and strategy.

Madrid GP qualifying already looks crucial after first Madring practice

The Madring passed its first major test. There are still several aspects to assess, especially once the field begins pushing properly to the limit in qualifying, but Formula 1’s newest circuit completed its first full day of running without the serious problems some had feared beforehand.

There had been plenty of uncertainty surrounding the debut of a completely new and demanding track, particularly because several sections were expected to test both the drivers and the cars. Nevertheless, Friday passed without any major track-related difficulties. That was an encouraging first verdict after drivers had previously raised concerns about the demanding new Madrid circuit.

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The only red flag, which came during the second practice session, was triggered by Arvid Lindblad’s accident. The lengthy stoppage had a significant effect on the teams’ planned programmes because it wiped out much of the period normally devoted to long runs. As a result, several important questions remain ahead of Sunday’s race, although the overall assessment of the circuit after its first day can still be considered positive.

The Madring is a track that asks a great deal of the drivers. Certain sections demand precision, while others require confidence in the car, and the fact that nobody had previous Formula 1 experience around the circuit meant the reference points developed continuously throughout the day. Racing lines, braking points and, above all, the drivers’ confidence through the most demanding sections evolved lap after lap.

George Russell believes that process is not yet complete. “Without a doubt it is a high-risk circuit and I think probably every driver today left that small safety margin.”

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That margin will inevitably disappear on Saturday when the drivers begin searching for outright performance in qualifying.

Kimi Antonelli continues Monza momentum as Mercedes starts strongly

Against that backdrop, Mercedes began the weekend with competitive pace. That was not necessarily a major surprise, but it was still an important confirmation only a few days after the Italian Grand Prix.

Once again, one of the most interesting performances came from Kimi Antonelli. After winning at Monza, there was considerable interest in seeing how the young Italian would begin a completely different weekend on an unfamiliar circuit with a layout bearing little resemblance to the high-speed demands of the previous round.

The answer was positive. Kimi Antonelli carried the confidence of his Monza performance into Madrid and, together with George Russell, helped Mercedes finish Friday with several encouraging signs.

On a completely new circuit, the ability to reach a strong level of confidence quickly is particularly valuable. Teams have the same amount of practice time available as during a conventional Grand Prix weekend, yet the volume of information that must be gathered and understood is considerably greater.

Ferrari SF-26 shows promising pace on medium tyres

Ferrari can also look back on the opening day in Madrid with several reasons for optimism. The SF-26 displayed very strong pace on the medium compound, reinforcing the impression that the car is comfortable when it can operate within a more stable tyre window.

For now, however, Ferrari appears to have more performance to extract from the soft tyre. That does not necessarily point to a fundamental limitation of the car. On a brand-new track surface that is evolving rapidly with every session, the key will be finding the correct operating window when it matters most: qualifying on Saturday afternoon.

That is likely to become one of the main areas of focus for Ferrari overnight. The team arrived in Madrid believing the SF-26 could be better suited to the Madring than it was to Monza, and Friday offered some encouraging evidence, even though the decisive soft-tyre performance has yet to be unlocked.

Ferrari has also been evaluating its aerodynamic configuration throughout the weekend, with the team continuing to refine the SF-26 after its Madrid rear-wing experiments. The first day has suggested that outright qualifying execution may ultimately matter as much as underlying car performance.

George Russell warns overtaking will be ‘very difficult’ in Madrid

One of the clearest early conclusions from the Madring concerns the importance of grid position. On paper, a street-style circuit can immediately suggest the possibility of mistakes, Safety Cars and unpredictable situations capable of reshuffling the order, but no team can build its strategy around unexpected incidents.

Based on Friday’s running, the places where a driver can realistically attempt an overtake appear neither numerous nor straightforward.

George Russell shared that concern. “I think it will be very difficult,” the Mercedes driver admitted when discussing overtaking prospects.

That only increases the importance of qualifying. Grid position could carry even greater weight than expected before the weekend began, meaning Ferrari’s ability to extract the maximum from the soft tyre will become one of the central issues on Saturday.

The potential appears to be there, but Ferrari will need to access all of it at exactly the right moment. The braking challenge will also play an important role around a circuit whose demands differ markedly from Monza, with the characteristics of the Madrid GP braking zones and energy recovery adding another layer to set-up work.

McLaren loses valuable running after Lando Norris gearbox problem

McLaren, by contrast, endured a more difficult start to the weekend. The team had been regarded by many as the pre-event favourite, but Friday did not yet produce the expected level of performance.

Based on the running that was possible, McLaren did not establish the kind of benchmark advantage over Mercedes and Ferrari that many had anticipated.

The situation became more complicated when a gearbox problem on Lando Norris’s car prevented him from taking part in FP2. Missing an entire second practice session is already a significant setback at a familiar venue, but the cost can be considerably greater at a completely new circuit.

Lando Norris will therefore need to recover a considerable amount of information during Saturday morning’s final practice session, information his rivals were able to gather throughout Friday. The impact was partially reduced by Arvid Lindblad’s red flag, however, as the interruption prevented the other teams from completing much of their own planned programmes.

McLaren’s Madrid weekend had already begun with changes to its aerodynamic approach, and the team will now have additional work to complete before qualifying. More background on its recent development direction can be found in the latest McLaren Formula 1 updates.

Red flag leaves Madrid GP race pace and strategy unclear

The reduced long-run running is precisely why Friday’s competitive picture remains incomplete. The classification and qualifying simulations offered the first useful indications of the pecking order, but one fundamental part of the weekend preparation is still missing: a reliable understanding of race pace.

The long runs were simply too short or too fragmented to allow meaningful conclusions, which means major questions also remain over strategy.

Tyre degradation is perhaps the biggest uncertainty. During FP1 it was extremely severe, to the point that George Russell used a striking example to describe what Mercedes had observed during its simulations.

“With the degradation we saw in FP1, a six-stop race would have been the fastest strategy.”

The situation improved significantly during the afternoon, and George Russell expects the track to continue evolving between now and Sunday. Even so, he described tyre management as “the main question mark”.

It therefore remains unclear which compounds will be most effective over a full race distance, how significant degradation will ultimately become and, most importantly, whether the Madrid Grand Prix will favour a one-stop race or require multiple tyre changes.

Those are answers that would normally begin to emerge with reasonable clarity by Friday evening. In Madrid, however, teams and drivers will have to rely more heavily on simulations and the limited data they were able to collect before the red flag.

The opening day at the Madring has consequently provided only a partial picture of the weekend. Yet one conclusion already appears relatively firm: at a circuit where overtaking could be difficult, starting near the front may be worth a great deal. For Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren, that makes Saturday’s Madrid GP qualifying session potentially decisive.

Sep 11, 2026Luca Marini
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Luca Marini

Luca Marini is a ScuderiaFans editorial byline covering Ferrari’s technical developments, car upgrades and Formula 1 regulations. His articles explain how these changes may influence performance on track.

1 month ago 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix, News2026 Formula 1 season, Madring, Mercedes0
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