Ferrari may have a more realistic chance of winning the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship with Lewis Hamilton than overturning Mercedes in the Constructors’ standings. It is a provocative conclusion, particularly with Charles Leclerc still firmly involved in Ferrari’s campaign, but the numbers at the summer break create a genuine strategic question for Maranello: which championship should the team prioritise?
Lewis Hamilton is 50 points behind championship leader Kimi Antonelli, while Ferrari must recover 72 points to catch Mercedes in the Constructors’ Championship. With 12 Grands Prix still expected to be held, assuming the current number of races remains unchanged, Ferrari could soon have to decide whether spreading its resources and opportunities equally between both drivers remains the strongest route to a world title.
Ferrari may be chasing the harder championship
Despite the major opportunity Ferrari missed in Budapest, where a potential one-two finish — or at the very least a likely double podium — ultimately became fourth and fifth places at the chequered flag, the mood inside Maranello remains one of belief that Mercedes can still be challenged for the championship.
Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur, in particular, appeared confident that the Scuderia could take the lead away from the Brackley team in the Constructors’ standings. His comments after the Hungarian Grand Prix reflected that belief and fit into his broader assessment of Ferrari’s position at the 2026 halfway point.
“Today, for the championship, it’s not a disaster,” Fred Vasseur told Sky Italia after the race. “We still scored more points than Mercedes and practically the same number of points as McLaren, but we could have done much more and it’s a shame.”
If those words are taken at face value rather than simply as a public-facing assessment — and there is no particular reason to believe Fred Vasseur was being insincere — Ferrari genuinely appear to believe they can recover a 72-point deficit to Mercedes over the remaining 12 Grands Prix.
Why Ferrari could go all-in on Lewis Hamilton
At the moment, it remains difficult to imagine the 2026 season ending with world champions other than Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes. Yet Ferrari may actually have a more achievable path through the Drivers’ Championship than through the Constructors’ standings.
The first reason is purely mathematical. Lewis Hamilton trails Kimi Antonelli by 50 points, meaning Ferrari’s seven-time world champion has 22 fewer points to recover than the team itself needs to make up against Mercedes.
The second factor concerns outright car performance. On average, the Mercedes W17 still appears to be more competitive than the Ferrari SF-26. Mercedes’ weakness has been reliability, but even across the last five race weekends, beginning with Barcelona, Ferrari have gained only seven points on Mercedes.
That works out at an average gain of just 1.4 points per Grand Prix. After the summer break, Ferrari would instead need to recover approximately six points per race to close the gap created during the first half of the season.
Lewis Hamilton’s individual trend is considerably more encouraging. Over the same five-race period, he scored 16 points more than Kimi Antonelli, gaining an average of 3.2 points per event. To win the Drivers’ Championship, Lewis Hamilton needs to recover a little more than four points per Grand Prix during the second half of 2026.
The required improvement is therefore much closer to the recent trend for Lewis Hamilton than it is for Ferrari as a team. That context also adds another dimension to the points already lost through penalties and missed opportunities during his 2026 championship challenge.
There is also a broader historical reality in Formula 1: it is relatively unusual for the strongest car to lose the Constructors’ Championship. By contrast, there have been several occasions when a driver in the best car has failed to secure the Drivers’ title.
Could Kimi Antonelli face an Oscar Piastri-style pressure test?
Of course, the idea of Lewis Hamilton overturning a 50-point deficit to Kimi Antonelli is anything but straightforward. Several factors, however, could potentially work in Ferrari’s favour during the second half of the season.
The first is the contrast between Lewis Hamilton’s experience and Kimi Antonelli’s youth. So far, the young Mercedes driver has effectively been flawless, but what happened to Oscar Piastri 12 months ago demonstrated how a young driver facing his first genuine world championship campaign can suddenly make unexpected mistakes once the pressure increases and the ultimate prize begins to feel within reach.
That does not mean Kimi Antonelli will follow the same path. Indeed, the numerous penalties Lewis Hamilton has received in recent races mean it has so far been the Ferrari driver, rather than the Mercedes youngster, who has made more costly errors. The hope at Maranello will be that those mistakes do not continue after the summer break.
Lewis Hamilton has also already reminded everyone that his performances have traditionally improved during the second half of a season. That record has added weight to the debate over whether Ferrari should eventually prioritise his 2026 title challenge.
Charles Leclerc would face the biggest sacrifice
The most sensitive element of any Ferrari attempt to focus on the Drivers’ Championship is unquestionably Charles Leclerc. The Monegasque currently sits fourth in the standings and is 31 points behind Lewis Hamilton, despite having outscored his team-mate in each of the last three race weekends.
Asking Charles Leclerc to help the number 44 Ferrari would therefore represent an enormous sacrifice, particularly because Lewis Hamilton’s chances of completing such a comeback remain far from overwhelming.
However, the championship has now reached its halfway point, and certain decisions may have to be made before it becomes too late. Waiting until the final four or five races could leave Ferrari without enough time to influence the outcome meaningfully.
No other team on the grid can currently call upon such a combination of speed, experience and talent across its two regular drivers. Having a driver of Charles Leclerc’s calibre available to play a supporting role would be a luxury few Formula 1 teams have ever possessed.
Charles Leclerc would naturally have every reason to feel uncomfortable about such a situation. Yet if he agreed to support Lewis Hamilton’s championship bid, he could also build an enormous amount of credit inside the Maranello organisation. If Charles Leclerc were the Ferrari driver closest to the championship lead a year from now — a scenario that is certainly not difficult to imagine — he would then have a very strong case for demanding the team’s complete support in return.
George Russell and Mercedes tensions could become a factor
Another element Ferrari could potentially exploit is the relationship between Mercedes’ two drivers. George Russell would never publicly admit it, of course, but it is not difficult to imagine that if he cannot win the Drivers’ Championship himself, he might prefer to see former Mercedes team-mate Lewis Hamilton take the crown rather than his current team-mate Kimi Antonelli.
The tensions between George Russell and Kimi Antonelli have not always been completely hidden. Any divisions inside Mercedes could become another weapon for Ferrari, but only if the Italian team is able to maximise its own points around a single championship contender.
Without a clearly prioritised driver, Ferrari risk having Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc take points from one another at precisely the moment when Mercedes may increasingly have reason to focus on protecting Kimi Antonelli’s championship advantage.
McLaren and Red Bull could indirectly help Lewis Hamilton
The wider competitive picture could also play an important role. McLaren are improving, while Red Bull are beginning — albeit very gradually — to find greater consistency.
Having more cars involved at the front could actually make Ferrari’s task in the Constructors’ Championship more difficult. To recover 72 points from Mercedes, Ferrari realistically need to make substantial gains across individual Grand Prix weekends, unless their strategy amounts to hoping for a sequence of Mercedes retirements.
More competitive rivals create additional opportunities for Ferrari to lose points as well as gain them. In the Drivers’ Championship, however, those same cars could potentially become useful.
On weekends when Kimi Antonelli is less competitive, having McLaren, Red Bull and perhaps other cars capable of finishing between the Mercedes driver and Lewis Hamilton could magnify the Ferrari driver’s points gain. Lewis Hamilton would not necessarily need to beat Kimi Antonelli by himself every weekend if other teams were able to take points away from the championship leader.
Ferrari’s 2026 title decision cannot be delayed forever
Realistically, it remains extremely difficult for Ferrari to imagine ending 2026 with either Formula 1 world championship. Mercedes and Kimi Antonelli have built significant advantages, and any successful comeback would require an exceptional second half of the season.
But if Ferrari decide that an all-in approach is necessary, focusing on the Drivers’ standings appears more logical than placing everything behind the Constructors’ Championship. Lewis Hamilton has 50 points to recover rather than Ferrari’s 72, and his recent rate of progress against Kimi Antonelli is already much closer to what would be required over the remaining races.
Even then, Ferrari would need almost flawless execution after the summer break, stronger performances from the SF-26 and more than a little good fortune. It would also require a difficult conversation about Charles Leclerc’s role — perhaps the most politically and emotionally complicated element of the entire strategy.
Yet Ferrari cannot complete a comeback it never genuinely attempts. And there is one final consideration: if Lewis Hamilton succeeds in reopening the Drivers’ Championship during the next few Grands Prix, Ferrari could almost automatically revive their ambitions in the Constructors’ standings as well. What initially looks like choosing one title over the other could, in the right circumstances, eventually bring both back into play.
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