Why Ferrari can secure a podium in F1 Miami GP even before the SF-25 upgrades

The scene is set for the Miami Grand Prix, the sixth round of the 2025 Formula 1 championship, as Ferrari wants to confirm the good things shown at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit with Charles Leclerc two weeks ago. Settling for a podium is never acceptable when you are wearing the red of the Prancing Horse. Nevertheless, the historic team is waiting for the aerodynamic update package which is set to by introduced by the Maranello technicians and engineers in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix weekend in order to make the necessary step forward which, if fully achieved, could unlock the potential to return to the fight at the top. That is the goal. But first comes Florida.

The Miami International Autodrome is a circuit with a mix of very fast sections, slower ones, and long straights. A combination that will definitely make it difficult to hit the correct operating window of the car. Excluding McLaren, all the top teams seem to be quite dependent on how well their cars can adapt. The gaps are minimal, which means the grid tightens up and every small detail becomes more than relevant.

Behind this risky and possibly sensational-sounding assumption, there are very specific technical reasons. Miami is a track where Ferrari performed well last year. A podium despite being the third-strongest team of the weekend, behind Red Bull and McLaren. The expected good adaptation to the American track could allow a smoother approach than at other circuits.

This without forgetting that the risk of a short operating window setup-wise is real. A scenario that would force the Maranello team to build what they themselves call extreme setups. A situation the team had to deal with up until the Bahrain Grand Prix. The second factor to consider is the temperatures, which in Florida will reach high peaks, with the sun itself contributing to the heating of the track surface.

All these conditions could put Red Bull in trouble, as it is currently the car that requires the most work on the setup side. The RB21 does not perform well in excessive heat, as we saw in Bahrain. The same could happen in Florida, to Ferrari’s advantage. Difficulties that could be decisive for the Italian team if they can take full advantage.

Taking into account that McLaren is a step ahead of everyone, there is also Mercedes to consider, which will most likely be the main rival of the SF-25 in Miami based on data collected so far. However, the thermal management of the W16’s tyres will be seriously tested. At the Bahrain International Circuit, they managed the compounds well under high temperatures, keeping the rear tyre temperatures under control. Whereas in Jeddah, the Italian car made progress.

Charles Leclerc’s SF-25 had better pace than George Russell’s W16 and, overall, the car from Maranello showed less degradation. This is because the team found a good spot to make the car work, but also thanks to a lower energy demand on the tyre compound, helpful in the race but critical on Saturdays. That is why Ferrari worked on tweaking the balance for qualifying to improve single-lap performance.

In the American weekend, the German team should not face issues in understanding tyre behaviour, as the Sprint Race will allow them to gather accurate data on tyre degradation and act accordingly. Compared to last year, when Mercedes put too much stress on the tyres and only performed well on cooler tracks, now the situation is reversed, and they have found a more consistent balance.

The recent Formula 1 races have shown us that Ferrari is slowly improving. Cooler conditions, like those in Japan, helped both Ferrari and Red Bull in tyre management. With higher temperatures and a stop-and-go layout like Bahrain, Mercedes stood out. Whereas in Saudi Arabia, with fast corners and straights, it was the Italian side’s car that emerged. In Miami there are long straights where tyres cool down, but also fast corners in Sector 1 and slower sections like in Sector 2.

For all these reasons, looking at the big picture, everything will undoubtedly depend on the balance Ferrari can find to manage tyres thermally. Car setup in 2025 is a frighteningly powerful tool, and getting it right is crucial. The Maranello team has worked hard on this and, if everything goes well, they are aiming to be the second-best team at the Miami International Autodrome.