Who Will Win the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?

The 2025 Formula 1 is heating up, and soon, the engines will roar in Jeddah.  Fans and bettors are all excited for one of the most complex and difficult races.  It features fast straights, tight corners, and a high-stakes atmosphere that you only get with a night race.

In this article, we’ll go over the favorites in each key category – race winner, pole position, fastest lap, and top 10 finishes.  These are based on the odds provided by the best Ethereum casinos out there and by taking into account experts’ analyses.

Strategic Factors to Consider

Jeddah is known as a fast and flowing street circuit.  Such races require the drivers to have full focus.  Any mistake can be punished harshly as there are at least four drivers who could take the lead.  Strategies are important for this race, but they need to be flexible and nimble.

There are enough DRS zones, which means that there can be a dramatic overtake in the final lap.  Every driver needs to master a balance between top speed and stability in high-speed corners.

Top Contenders for the Win

Max Verstappen remains the clear favorite to win.  Red Bull has also maintained a winning pace and dominance, and it’s not surprising that they continue with it in Jeddah, too.  However, Verstappen finished sixth in Bahrain.  Verstappen is also known as one of the best tacticians in the field, and he’s shown resilience after tough races.

A close second, when it comes to odds of winning, is another Red Bull racer, Sergio Pérez.  He previously won the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in 2023, and some are confident that he could do it again.  Pérez’s best qualities are shown in street circuits and in the fact that he’s familiar with Red Bull’s setup.  Realistically, however, Pérez will wait for Verstappen to make a mistake.

Fernando Alonso from Aston Martin remains a real competitor.  He’s a wildcard because of his ability to preserve tires and use opportunities late in the race.  The odds of him winning are much lower than with Pérez, but it’s this ability to turn things around that makes him so dangerous.  However, many feel that Alonso is more of a fan favorite than a real contender.

Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, both from Ferrari, are also among the main contenders.  They both hope to find enough straight-line speed to be able to challenge Red Bull.  Some also claim that Lewis Hamilton, who’s even further down the line in terms of odds, isn’t to be overlooked, either.

Pole Position Favorites

When it comes to qualifications, Verstappen is the clear favorite, and it’s his race to lose.  Verstappen is known to deliver explosive laps in Q3, and he especially thrives when the race is close and important, which are great qualities for a driver to have.

However, Charles Leclerc has made a name for himself in the racing world as someone who wins qualifications.  This is accomplished with his raw one-lap pace, and that’s why it may lead to a surprise when it comes to pole positions.

The bookmakers put Sergio Pérez and Alonso as contenders for the top spot, but most experts don’t, as they’ll probably be chasing Verstappen and Leclerc by tenths.

History shows that the Saudi Arabia Prix winner could usually be predicted based on the pole position.  The race is high-speed in nature, and there are limited overtaking zones, so those who are at the top pole position usually end up as winners.  This isn’t the case with most races with such long straights, but Saudi Arabia is unique.

Top 10 Finish Probabilities

Data is out from the latest simulations, and it tells a compelling story about the odds for the top ten finish.  They are as follows:

Max Verstappen: 87.4%
Carlos Sainz: 86.1%
Sergio Pérez: 85.5%
Charles Leclerc: 85.5%
Lewis Hamilton: 84.4%
Lando Norris: 83.3%
George Russell: 83.1%

This list showcases the strong positions of the top teams: Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren.  The only chance for Verstappen and Pérez not to end up within the points is for them to experience a mechanical issue.  Sainz and Leclerc are on the list, which shows how well Ferrari is doing.

Lando Norris is the dark horse of the list and the race as a whole, mostly due to McLaren’s upgrades and his boost in confidence.

Fastest Lap Predictions

The fastest lap award was usually easy to predict – it was won by a driver who pits late and has a set of fresh and soft tires.  Chances are that Verstappen will also have the fastest lap as he has both the speed and the strategy needed for it.  However, there’s a chance that Leclerc or even Norris and Russell could clock in the fastest lap late in the race.

Jeddah race has a straight and flowing middle sector, which means that teams will plan the potentially fastest lap near the final ten laps if the drivers are in the clean air.  Pérez has been known to maintain a consistent pace across stints, which means he may come off as a surprise.

Other Betting Markets to Pay Attention to

There are a few fun prop bets to pay attention to outside of simply choosing a winner and top finishes.  These are often added as side bets to spice things up and increase the potential winnings.  Some of these include:

Safety Car Deployment

The wager is simply made on whether the safety car will be deployed or not.  However, it’s not an even odds bet because it depends on the nature of the race itself.  Jeddah features tight corners and a high-speed layout.  All of these means that it’s more likely that the safety car will be deployed than not.

First Driver to Retire

Retirements are common with walls so close to the racing line.  It’s usually the rookies that will retire first after failing to overtake the race quickly.  Retirements also happen due to technical issues, but those are much more difficult to predict.  For instance, Pierre Gasly retired on the first lap due to gearbox issues in 2024.  Historically speaking, drivers starting in 17th and 19th positions fail to finish.

Winning Margin

The winning margin mostly depends on who will win in the first place.  If the winner is Verstappen, who is the favorite to win, the gap will probably be big.  However, if someone who’s less likely to win does so, chances are that it will be a tight race.  The largest winning margin of the season was 15.499s.

To Sum Up

The Saudi Arabia Prix will be a high-stakes drama with a great showcase of speed and strategy.  Max Verstappen is a clear favorite for most categories, but the field behind him is very competitive, and nothing is for sure.  Chances are Sergio Pérez will be the biggest challenger in qualifying and the race itself.

The top finishes will be spread among the top teams.  There are also some smaller bets that the fans and the bettors are looking for, and these are as open as the race itself.  It will be a fun race regardless of who wins in the end.