Where Ferrari SF-26 is losing to Mercedes W17 at Albert Park: insights from Melbourne FP2 telemetry. FP2 telemetry exposes Ferrari weaknesses compared to Mercedes.

Mercedes has emerged as the main story of Friday in Melbourne, even though the fastest lap went to Oscar Piastri in the McLaren. The Silver Arrows, the pre-race favorites, impressed with how easily they found pace, allowing them to focus earlier than their rivals on race simulations, where they demonstrated excellent tire management. Ferrari remains in the front group but will need to bring everything together to seriously challenge its competitors.

Mercedes’ work on Friday

After a subdued performance in the first session, Mercedes-powered cars made a significant step forward in FP2. The official team improved by 1.4 seconds with Andrea Kimi Antonelli, while McLaren lowered its time by 1.6 seconds with Piastri. Behind these gains were both a more aggressive use of the engine and a refined energy management strategy, particularly challenging in Melbourne. In the second sector, the most energy-critical part of the track, differences were minimal, becoming more pronounced in the other sectors. Piastri, for instance, claimed the fastest lap thanks to an excellent first sector, then held off the Silver Arrows in the final sector.

Mercedes devoted less time than others to qualifying simulations, prioritizing race pace instead, explaining why they didn’t top the timesheets. Both George Russell and Antonelli, however, appeared to find pace with ease, showing good harmony with their car setups after morning difficulties. The W17s were also the only front-running cars to complete a race simulation of over 10 laps, gaining valuable data advantage over rivals hindered by a late Virtual Safety Car caused by Sergio Perez. This data is not only about tire performance but also about hybrid thermal management and battery recharge strategies, which in the race can recover 1 MJ more than in qualifying, as set by the FIA.

Race simulations

Unfortunately, there was no fully representative long-run comparison between Mercedes and its rivals, not just due to lap count. Max Verstappen, for example, had to pit after a heavy excursion into the gravel, while McLaren focused on soft tires with Piastri. Ferrari ran on the same compound as the Mercedes drivers, though with tires around five laps older. Despite this, the Silver Arrows showed excellent attack laps and consistently improved over successive runs. Russell in particular impressed, highlighting the difference a driver can make in the same car, especially regarding energy management.

Mercedes’ strengths seem to lie in excellent tire management, complementing the power unit, with generally low tire degradation at Melbourne, pointing toward a likely one-stop race. Lap times were just over two seconds slower than Friday’s runs last year, despite a slightly slower track. The gap to the ground-effect Formula 1 cars does not appear massive, at least in terms of race performance, with room for growth still ahead.

Ferrari keeps pace

Maranello logged the most laps overall, 125 compared to 109 for Mercedes, 98 for Red Bull, and 83 for McLaren. Ferrari confirmed strong baseline reliability, helping performance by enabling continuous track work. The Italian team started well, topping the first session while testing various energy management strategies, with Charles Leclerc more aggressive than Lewis Hamilton in the first sector. In the afternoon, Lewis improved by seven tenths, while Charles slightly lost time by two hundredths.

The Ferrari drivers didn’t show the same morning form and were unlucky with traffic, which will be crucial in qualifying during the formation lap. As last season, a clear track is important to heat up tires effectively, especially this year with the added challenge of managing pace for battery recharge. Ferrari also introduced a virtual mirror system that communicates real-time gaps to other cars via the steering wheel.

Overall, Ferrari focused more on single-lap pace. Compared to Mercedes, the SF-26 lags mainly in the third sector, with the gap likely due to energy management, tires, or the aero package. Nonetheless, Ferrari remains in the front group, with potential advantages at the start, refined through practice. Their standing start edge comes from a smaller turbo and an engine optimized for low-speed thrust, although the fast-flowing Australian track doesn’t fully exploit these traits.

Reliability remains key

McLaren is also competitive. Piastri’s fastest lap came mainly from a sector record in the first sector, underlining the importance of launching the lap on warm tires. Lando Norris’ potential remains uncertain due to reliability issues in both sessions, frustrating in a Formula 1 season where drivers need extensive track time to optimize energy management. Similarly, Red Bull and Verstappen were consistently fast in the morning but completed only 13 laps in the afternoon.

The inevitable teething problems of the new cars could offer opportunities for those chasing the leaders. Currently, Racing Bulls, Haas, and Audi are at the front of the chasing pack, with Williams and Alpine trailing. Aston Martin continues to struggle with vibrations, barely able to run, missing data that could help identify issues with the AMR26. Adrian Newey stated that only two batteries remain available, raising questions about costs and reliability impacts on the budget cap, potentially limiting power unit development resources. The FIA theoretically allows cost cap exemptions in such scenarios, but there is skepticism in the paddock about whether this will be enough.