The projects for what will be the last cars under the current regulations are now well underway. The most realistic scenario is that we’ll see a further convergence of shapes and architectures, continuing the trend of recent years. There is growing curiosity about who will revolutionize their car and by how much, or whether there will instead be a general evolution of the vehicles. Major upheavals are unlikely, but the 2025 cars could still bring significant changes.
On the wave of continuity
The 2025 Formula 1 season will be the final year of the ground effect regulations, as well as the eve of the major regulatory changes expected in 2026. History teaches us that in such cases, teams focus on evolving the previous year’s cars, especially when the Federation refrains from making changes to the technical regulations, which will remain unchanged next year. This wasn’t the case in 2021 when the FIA imposed a reduction of the rear floor area, favoring low-rake designs. However, the requirement to keep the same chassis as the previous season prevented teams from implementing revolutions.
The ground effect regulations have now reached a certain level of maturity, with increasingly small growth margins. This, combined with the desire to soon shift resources to the 2026 project, encourages teams to evolve current concepts. The fact that none of the top teams have yet stopped developing their 2024 cars to focus on next year suggests that the new cars will directly descend from the current ones. That said, there are still reasons to expect significant changes.
Why change
The teams’ priority will be to invest in the 2026 Formula 1 cars as early as possible, aiming to develop a competitive project to start the next cycle on the right foot. However, the new regulations are still evolving, and aerodynamic analyses using CFD and wind tunnels will remain prohibited until January. This rule, agreed upon by the teams and the Federation, was designed specifically to avoid discouraging investment in 2025 cars.
Moreover, observing the current grid, conceptual differences between various cars are still evident, despite a general convergence in sidepod and engine cover shapes. For example, the contrast between pull-rod and push-rod suspensions continues, both at the front and rear. This duality not only indicates a different aerodynamic philosophy for airflow management but also stems from differences in chassis sections and heights, in some cases related to the more or less forward position of the cockpit. Three years after the debut of the ground effect regulations, different concepts still coexist, providing opportunities for significant changes, should they be deemed effective.
Finally, it’s worth noting that some teams have already started revolutionizing their designs for 2024. Ferrari is an excellent example, having developed a car designed to operate differently, with a completely new rear end, less aggressive tire management, an optimized floor for higher ride heights, and a greater focus on race performance. Revolutions, however, cannot be completed all at once, as it’s necessary to maintain reference points when redesigning the car, to avoid getting lost in a sea of variables. Therefore, teams like Ferrari and Mercedes, which have embarked on a path of change, could complete it next year.
What to expect
In conclusion, for 2025, the general trend is towards evolution, without ruling out more radical modifications. For some, reusing the 2024 chassis is certainly a possibility, although less likely for others. In the case of McLaren, which currently boasts the most complete car on the grid, it’s reasonable to expect that the 2025 car will be a direct descendant of the current one. The same goes for those with no particular ambitions for the next season, who therefore lack the motivation to pursue drastic changes. Ferrari and Mercedes, on the other hand, already close to consistently fighting for victories but not yet championship contenders, are the main candidates to make the most significant changes. Decisions for 2025 have long been made, but only in February will we see who dared the most.
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