Mercedes may have dominated the opening phase of the 2026 Formula 1 season, but there is growing belief that the Monaco Grand Prix could provide Ferrari with its best opportunity yet to halt the Silver Arrows’ remarkable winning streak.
After five consecutive victories and a flawless run of pole positions, Mercedes has established itself as the benchmark team under Formula 1’s new regulations. However, the unique characteristics of the Monte Carlo circuit have prompted several influential figures within the sport to question whether the competitive order could be about to change.
Many insiders now believe that Ferrari’s SF-26 may finally arrive at a circuit that plays directly to its strengths, potentially allowing Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to mount the Scuderia’s strongest challenge of the season so far.
Mercedes arrive in Monaco as the team everyone wants to beat
The Silver Arrows have enjoyed a dream start to the 2026 campaign.
George Russell delivered victory in the season opener in Australia before Andrea Kimi Antonelli seized control of the championship narrative with an extraordinary run of four consecutive Grand Prix victories in China, Japan, Miami and Canada.
The young Italian’s remarkable consistency has helped him establish a significant advantage at the top of the Drivers’ Championship standings, while Mercedes has remained undefeated through the first five rounds.
Yet the results do not tell the complete story.
George Russell has encountered a series of setbacks that have prevented Mercedes from achieving an even greater margin over its rivals. Technical issues, unfortunate race circumstances and reliability concerns have all affected the British driver at crucial moments throughout the season. Despite those challenges, Mercedes continues to lead both championships comfortably and remains the reference point for the rest of the field.
That said, Monaco presents a completely different challenge compared to the circuits visited so far in 2026.
Why Ferrari could be particularly dangerous in Monaco
While Mercedes possesses the strongest overall package in Formula 1, Ferrari has consistently demonstrated impressive performance in low-speed corners throughout the season.
The SF-26 may not enjoy the same straight-line speed advantages as Mercedes, but its chassis characteristics have repeatedly impressed observers in technical sections where mechanical grip and cornering balance are critical. Those strengths are especially valuable around the streets of Monte Carlo.
Unlike circuits that reward engine power and aerodynamic efficiency on long straights, Monaco places a premium on traction, precision and confidence through a succession of slow-speed corners. As a result, Ferrari’s power unit deficit is expected to be far less significant than it has been at other venues.
This has fueled growing optimism within the paddock that Ferrari could be in a position to challenge for pole position and potentially victory. Recent evidence from Canada has only strengthened that belief.
Lewis Hamilton’s impressive second-place finish in Montreal highlighted several strengths of the SF-26, particularly in slower sections of the circuit where Ferrari appeared highly competitive. Analysts have pointed to those characteristics as indicators that the car could perform even better on Monaco’s demanding street circuit.
Charles Leclerc enters Monaco with high expectations
If Ferrari is to challenge Mercedes, many believe Charles Leclerc will be at the centre of that effort.
The Monegasque driver has built a formidable reputation around his home circuit and remains one of the strongest qualifying performers in Formula 1. After years of frustration and heartbreak in Monaco, Charles Leclerc finally achieved his dream victory in the Principality in 2024, delivering one of the most emotional moments of his career.
His qualifying record around the streets of Monte Carlo is equally impressive, with multiple pole positions demonstrating his exceptional ability to extract maximum performance over a single lap. Given Monaco’s emphasis on track position, many experts view qualifying as the decisive phase of the weekend. Securing pole position often provides the best route to victory due to the circuit’s notoriously limited overtaking opportunities.
That reality naturally places Charles Leclerc among the leading favourites.
Lewis Hamilton also seen as a serious contender
While Charles Leclerc has received much of the attention, Lewis Hamilton’s recent resurgence has added another dimension to Ferrari’s Monaco prospects.
The seven-time world champion appears increasingly comfortable with the SF-26 and has produced several encouraging performances since the beginning of the season. His podium finish in Canada represented his strongest result since joining Ferrari and reinforced the view that he is adapting more effectively to the team’s current package.
Monaco has also historically rewarded experience, precision and racecraft—qualities that Lewis Hamilton possesses in abundance. If Ferrari can deliver a competitive qualifying car, Lewis Hamilton could become a genuine contender for his first Grand Prix victory in red.
The possibility of both Ferrari drivers fighting at the front has generated significant excitement among fans and former drivers alike.
Paddock figures backing Ferrari for victory
Several respected voices within Formula 1 have openly suggested that Ferrari could finally end its lengthy wait for another Grand Prix victory this weekend.
Former Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko reportedly believes that Monaco’s layout may expose one of Mercedes’ few weaknesses while simultaneously highlighting Ferrari’s strengths. His assessment suggested that the slow-speed nature of the circuit should favour Charles Leclerc, particularly given the driver’s exceptional record in Monaco qualifying sessions.
According to reports, Helmut Marko views Charles Leclerc as one of the leading candidates for pole position and therefore one of the strongest contenders for victory.
Former Formula 1 driver Riccardo Patrese has expressed even greater confidence in Ferrari’s chances. The Italian reportedly predicted that Ferrari could lock out the top two positions, with Charles Leclerc leading Lewis Hamilton across the finish line. Such a result would mark Ferrari’s first one-two finish since the 2024 United States Grand Prix and represent a major statement in the championship battle.
A crucial opportunity for Ferrari
For Ferrari, Monaco represents more than just another race weekend.
After enduring a lengthy victory drought and watching Mercedes dominate the early stages of the season, the Principality offers a rare opportunity to shift momentum. The combination of Charles Leclerc’s extraordinary record around Monaco, Lewis Hamilton’s improving form and the SF-26’s suitability to slow-speed circuits has created genuine optimism within the Scuderia camp.
Whether Ferrari can finally convert that promise into victory remains uncertain. However, for the first time in 2026, there is a growing sense throughout the Formula 1 paddock that Mercedes may no longer be the clear favourite.
If that assessment proves accurate, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton could find themselves leading Ferrari’s most important weekend of the season so far.
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