Andrea Kimi Antonelli secured a pole position that perfectly encapsulates his technical and analytical qualities. The Mercedes driver made the difference on one of the most complete and demanding tracks on the calendar, putting into practice everything he has learned about energy management and how to approach qualifying sessions. McLaren also showed clear signs of progress, while Ferrari paid the price for both the limitations of its package and its own shortcomings.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s performance at Suzuka was not just about raw speed, but about precision and understanding. The Italian maximized both the car and the battery, extracting performance exactly where it mattered most. Ferrari, on the other hand, once again found itself caught out by the step required in Q3, unable to match the progression shown by its rivals.
Antonelli’s growth in approach
Where Andrea Kimi Antonelli is truly improving is in his overall approach to a race weekend. On Thursday, the Italian explained that starting from the Chinese Grand Prix he had realized the importance of choosing carefully where to take more risks, weighing the potential gains against the margin for error.
At Suzuka, for example, he stood out particularly in the final chicane, while losing some ground in the first sector, where he himself acknowledged there is still room for improvement.
“Compared to me, Russell still makes a bit of a difference in the fast corners,” Antonelli admitted.
There will be time to work on that aspect, but first comes a race that could have major implications for the championship standings. The opportunity is significant, especially with George Russell never fully comfortable with the W17 in Japan, struggling with oversteer that was further exacerbated by setup changes made after the final practice session.
Ferrari unable to improve
There is clear disappointment within Ferrari, which for the third consecutive time failed to improve in Q3 despite an encouraging start earlier in qualifying. Charles Leclerc did not hide his frustration, not so much because of the snap at Spoon corner, but rather due to the sudden loss of time on the straights compared to his own best sector times.
The SF-26 suffers from a clear deficit in both power and energy management compared to Mercedes, but the team also bears responsibility for not being able to fully optimize its package. On one side, Charles Leclerc is still adapting to the new driving style required in this generation of Formula 1, where, as frustrating as it may be, drivers must avoid taking too many risks or applying the throttle too early in order not to confuse the battery management software.
On the other side, the impression is that Ferrari’s energy management logic is less flexible than that of its competitors, struggling to adapt to the evolving driving style during qualifying and to determine when to deploy electric power and when to conserve it.
Where Ferrari loses out
Looking at the sector data, Ferrari’s biggest limitation in Q3 appears in the first sector, the most technical part of the track. Here, Charles Leclerc improved by just over one tenth compared to Q2, while Antonelli gained three and a half tenths and Oscar Piastri nearly half a second.
This raises questions for the Scuderia: was the Monegasque already close to the limit in Q2, or did he leave something on the table, perhaps in tyre preparation? In Q3, with track temperatures four degrees lower than in Q1, Leclerc went out on track last and second-to-last in his two attempts, without the freedom to manage his pace to recharge the battery and properly warm up the tyres.
Despite this, Ferrari can take some comfort from setting the fastest overall sector times in sector one, confirming the strong aerodynamic load of the SF-26 as well as the improvements made to the car’s balance compared to Friday.
McLaren’s leap forward
Even so, it was not enough to hold off McLaren, which secured third and fifth positions with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris respectively. The reigning world champion paid the price for limited preparation due to technical issues during practice sessions, and without those setbacks, it is reasonable to assume the papaya team could have locked out the second row.
In particular, the team was once again forced to replace the battery on the British driver’s car, the same issue that had already prevented him from taking part in the Chinese Grand Prix, raising some concerns about the reliability of the Mercedes power unit.
In race conditions, however, it will not be easy for McLaren to keep Ferrari behind. The Italian team appears to have an advantage at the start and shows stronger race pace over long runs. For Lando Norris, the challenge will be even greater, as his disrupted practice sessions prevented him from properly simulating long-run performance.
Regardless of the final result, McLaren can take encouragement from the clear reduction in the gap to Mercedes, which has dropped from eight tenths in Melbourne and five in Shanghai to just three and a half tenths at Suzuka. The improvements are evident, particularly in setup choices and, above all, in energy management strategies.
The growing understanding of the Brixworth power unit is gradually revealing its sensitivities, helping the team identify the most effective moments to deploy hybrid power, which remains a key factor in this era of Formula 1.
Red Bull in difficulty
While McLaren is improving, the same cannot be said for Red Bull, which has fallen a further two tenths behind Mercedes compared to Australia. Max Verstappen struggled the most, battling a car that suffers from significant understeer in mid-corner and tends to bottom out at high speed.
It is difficult to determine how much the new bodywork introduced at Suzuka has contributed to these issues, especially as it was only available to the Dutch driver. What is clear, however, is that it has not represented a step forward.
Meanwhile, Isack Hadjar, driving the non-updated RB22, secured eighth place, finishing behind Pierre Gasly’s Alpine and ahead of an impressive Audi driven by Gabriel Bortoleto. Also noteworthy is Arvid Lindblad’s tenth place with Racing Bulls, highlighting how close the sister team has come to Red Bull despite using the same power unit.
Race outlook
The picture seen on Saturday could change significantly in race conditions. Overtaking should be possible, meaning long-run pace will likely carry more weight than outright qualifying performance, even though a one-stop strategy is expected.
After the checkered flag, attention will turn to reflection and analysis, with a month-long break providing teams the opportunity to evaluate potential adjustments, particularly in qualifying, which continues to limit the full potential of the drivers.
The 2026 Japanese Grand Prix qualifying has therefore highlighted a clear divide in technical execution between Mercedes’ mastery of hybrid deployment and Ferrari’s ongoing struggle to find peak performance in Q3. Based on the content of today’s analysis, the race will be a battle of efficiency, where the ability to manage battery “clipping” could be as vital as pure aerodynamic grip through Suzuka’s legendary curves.
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