Ferrari disappointed at the 5.451-kilometre Shanghai International Circuit. It let itself down, along with its drivers and fans. A day like this can only serve as a starting point to come back stronger.
Let’s take it step by step. First, we analyze the race without considering the disqualification of Ferrari and Alpine’s Gasly. We’ll get to that later.
Pre-Disqualification Analysis
The Chinese GP delivered some surprises in terms of strategy. Fortunately, there was no need for creative thinking on the pit wall. Those who follow us regularly know we are our own biggest critics. Yesterday, we predicted a race with two pit stops, using two sets of Hard tires and one set of Mediums.
This was based on noticeable tire degradation from Friday. Teams were concerned, and Pirelli even raised tire pressures by 1 psi at the front and rear to mitigate the issue. On Saturday morning, with these adjustments, drivers struggled to complete the Sprint Race on a single set of Mediums. This led us to believe the M-H-H strategy would be the best approach for the GP.
However, things changed unexpectedly. Most teams adjusted their plans, opting for a one-stop strategy—either Medium-Hard or Hard-Medium.
Haas’ Masterstroke
The American team is often criticized for its race strategies, but today, they deserve nothing but praise. Their decisions turned Ocon’s P11 start into a P7 (later P5 after disqualifications) and Bearman’s P17 into P10 (P8 post-disqualification). Both cars finished in the points in a race without Safety Cars or major incidents—a remarkable comeback after a disappointing Australian GP.
This highlights how close the F1 field is this year. Perhaps there is no outright weakest team, or if there is, we need more races on different track types to fully evaluate strengths and weaknesses.
Haas committed early to a one-stop strategy. Esteban ran 12 laps on Mediums before switching to the more suitable C2 compound. Bearman, on the other hand, managed his Mediums exceptionally well. He switched to the C3 on lap 27 and completed 30 laps to the end of the race—the longest stint on that compound. He even outperformed Stroll’s Aston Martin, which spent much of the race in the top 10. Lance stretched his Hard stint by 10 extra laps compared to Bearman, but when he switched to Mediums, he found himself in P14, stuck in traffic behind Doohan.
Ferrari Has (Almost) No Strategic Regrets
Looking at the race from a strategy-only perspective, Ferrari has little to regret—almost nothing (the “almost” will be addressed in the post-disqualification analysis). Had the race ended with the SF-25 cars in P5 and P6, Maranello would have maximized its potential.
Among the key contenders—Piastri, Norris, Russell, Verstappen, Hamilton, and Leclerc—the first pit stops were made almost simultaneously between laps 14 and 16. No major differences there. Russell attempted an undercut on Norris, passed him, but was immediately re-overtaken, proving McLaren simply had better pace and managed their Hard tires well in the final stint.
Around lap 20, Lewis Hamilton realized Charles Leclerc was faster and let him through, hoping he could attack George Russell. Charles tried but never had the pace to make the move.
On lap 38, Lewis Hamilton pitted for a second stop. Until then, he had been ahead of Max Verstappen, but the gap was shrinking. Ferrari opted for an aggressive strategy rather than waiting to be overtaken. Max would have passed him regardless, so Ferrari chose to push. In the end, Max Verstappen did indeed get past Charles Leclerc, whose broken front wing hampered his tire management.
When Hamilton pitted on lap 38, he was 3.5 seconds behind Charles Leclerc. At the finish, despite the extra stop, he was just 2.1 seconds behind. Given the challenges, staying on a one-stop strategy wouldn’t have made much difference. Hamilton didn’t have the same pace he showed in the Sprint.
The SF-25 Was Not a Winning Car
Contrary to Charles Leclerc’s claims, Ferrari was not a race-winning car today. The front wing damage hurt his tire management, but even without it, P5 was likely his ceiling. He might have defended against Max in the final laps or mounted a stronger attack on Russell, but the McLarens were too far ahead. Victory simply wasn’t realistic.
Post-Disqualification Analysis
Ferrari took responsibility for Lewis Hamilton’s disqualification, admitting a miscalculation. However, they blamed Charles Leclerc’s exclusion on the one-stop strategy. Their calculations had likely assumed the car would finish with a specific tire wear level based on a two-stop strategy. By switching to a one-stop, Ferrari believes they ended up 1 kg underweight—250 grams per tire (1 kg divided by four). In post-race checks, the SF-25 weighed in at 799 kg, just below the FIA-mandated 800 kg minimum.
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