The 14th round of the 2024 Formula 1 championship, the Belgian Grand Prix, which was held last weekend at the 7.004-kilometre Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, concluded dramatically with George Russell’s disqualification due to a weight irregularity with his W15 single-seater, but Mercedes still celebrated a perfect weekend with Lewis Hamilton’s victory. The seven-time Formula 1 world champion secured his second race victory in three races, turning a disastrous start for the German side in the current season into a triumphant finish ahead of the F1 summer break. The W15 continued to be strong on front-limited tracks. McLaren squandered its best race car performance due to driver and team errors, while Red Bull, amid a worrying technical crisis for the Austrian side, failed to dominate even at the Spa-Francorchamps circuit in Belgium.
Scuderia Ferrari, after an unexpected pole position secured by Charles Leclerc on Saturday thanks to a great lap in wet track conditions, but also as a result of Max Verstappen receiving a ten-place grid penalty for using a fifth internal combustion engine this year, confirmed its status as the fourth force, with progress since the beginning of the year proving insufficient considering the fact that Red Bull no longer sets the benchmark in Formula 1 at this moment.
The layout of the Spa-Francorchamps track highlighted that McLaren is currently the team to beat. Despite the anticipated challenge, the MCL38 single-seater proved to be on par with, if not slightly superior to, the best cars, but driver errors significantly impacted the final results. Oscar Piastri’s mistake between Bruxelles and Pouhon in the decisive qualifying attempt cost him four-tenths and a potential pole position, while Lando Norris’ error at turn 1 immediately after the start compromised his race. In contrast, we can point out the perfect performances from Lewis Hamilton and George Russell who secured Mercedes their third win in four races. However, over the summer break, the technicians of the German team will need to analyze what went wrong with their new aerodynamic package during Friday’s free practice sessions for the Belgian Grand Prix. The W15’s deficit compared to the MCL38 can be quantified at around a tenth and a half when running in clean air. The starting positions and the poor drag reduction system efficiency of the McLaren played crucial roles last weekend. In the first stint, Oscar Piastri lost a lot of time behind Sergio Perez and later in overtaking the Ferrari SF-24 car of Charles Leclerc, but passing Lewis Hamilton would have been as challenging as it was for Lando Norris against Max Verstappen in the final stint of the Belgian Grand Prix.
Mercedes’ best phase of the race was the first stint, with nearly a three-tenths advantage on the C3 tires over Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari SF-24 car. In the two stints on hard tires, the MCL38 continued to show excellent pace, as did Ferrari until the final stint, even maintaining a tenth and a half advantage over the W15. Charles Leclerc’s last stint was affected by his battle with Oscar Piastri and the SF-24’s bouncing problems that resurfaced with a lighter fuel load, similar to what happened in the simulations for the qualifying session that were performed on a dry track. Despite finishing within ten seconds of the race victory, the sad truth is that Ferrari once again remained the fourth force on track. In order for Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz to be able to compete against the top teams, the Maranello technicians need the updates planned for September, although team principal Frederic Vasseur is pushing to even advance these updates by one or two races.
Shifting the focus to Red Bull, it is interesting to see that the decline of the Austrian side continues, as there was no gain from the Budapest aerodynamic package and the RB20 was in fact the third force even at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, as explained by F1 expert Andrea Vergani for formu1a.uno.
The eagerly awaited update introduced for the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend did not yield positive results, with the RB20 struggling both in Budapest and Spa. Max Verstappen moved from eighth at the end of the first lap to fifth (on track) by the end of the Belgian Grand Prix, but his race pace fell short of McLaren, trailing by about two-tenths in clean air, and also behind Mercedes on a track that should have favored the Milton Keynes car more than the Hungaroring given the track characteristics. Max Verstappen’s recovery allowed him to gain points in the drivers’ championship over Lando Norris, but Sergio Perez’s difficulties continue and this situation is costing Red Bull points in the constructors’ standings, with McLaren now looming large.
Sunday’s race was undoubtedly compromised by the choice of a higher downforce rear wing compared to the competition, maximizing Max Verstappen’s starting position and securing a front row for Sergio Perez. This choice was based on the high graining observed in Friday’s long runs, a problem that was not confirmed in Sunday’s race. Sergio Perez complained about a slow RB20 car with the drag reduction system closed, due to power unit problems and an overly loaded aerodynamic setup limiting straight-line speed. A more significant error occurred in the first free practice session, as was the case in Austria, when Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez used the hard tires, leaving none for the race. Unfortunately for Red Bull, the hardest compound proved optimal, forcing the Austrian team into a different strategy from all its rivals. Keeping McLaren at bay in the second half of the 2024 Formula 1 championship seems challenging, considering the car’s inferiority and Sergio Perez’s inability to compete with top-team drivers since the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at the Imola circuit, especially now that the Mexican has somewhat surprisingly been confirmed for the first races after the summer break.
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