SPA GP: McLaren MCL38 favorite, encouraging pace for Ferrari | Belgian GP. Encouraging pace for Ferrari in the Belgian GP.

At Spa, McLaren continues the work started in Budapest. On the Friday of the Belgian Grand Prix, the papaya-colored cars achieved a one-two finish again, but the temporary superiority of the Woking cars is even more significant than it was in Budapest. Verstappen, third with a Red Bull experimenting with setup and collecting data, faces a grid penalty, encouraging Ferrari to aim for the podium.

The Final Confirmation

The summer season has seen McLaren emerge as the fastest car on the grid on various types of circuits. However, it wasn’t guaranteed that they would confirm this at Spa, a high-speed, low-downforce track. Aerodynamic efficiency, defined as the downforce generated in proportion to drag, is not constant. A car’s aerodynamics work differently depending on the configuration and level of downforce adopted. Thus, a car efficient in a medium-high downforce setup may not be so with a lower downforce package.

This was the case with the 2023 McLaren, which in low downforce configuration lacked efficiency, losing several km/h on the straight. The memories of tough weekends in Las Vegas, Monza, and Spa itself are still fresh in Woking, where in qualifying, the British cars were 0.8 seconds behind just between the first and third sectors, the fastest parts of the Belgian track where straight-line speed is crucial.

However, McLaren has done its homework, now displaying the same efficiency in low-downforce configuration seen in other conditions. The MCL38 continues to make a mark in the central sector, managing this time to keep up with Verstappen’s Red Bull even in the first and second sectors. This is thanks to the low-downforce package introduced in Belgium, consisting of a new rear wing and beam wing. All this seemingly without compromising tire management, with excellent results in the race pace comparison between Piastri and Verstappen on the same tire compound. It’s only Friday, but McLaren has all the premises for another strong weekend, and to be competitive on the many low-downforce tracks scheduled for the rest of the year.

Red Bull Chases

It was a mixed day for the world champions. Max Verstappen set the fastest time in the first free practice session with a setup choice contrary to the competition. The RB20 hit the track with the same medium-low downforce wing from previous races, thus having a higher downforce configuration than its rivals, yielding record partials in the central sector but paying the price with a lack of straight-line speed.

In the afternoon, the Dutch champion returned to the track with a lower downforce rear wing, approaching McLaren’s downforce level, trailing minimally in all three sectors. Red Bull’s goal in Belgium is to maximize the comeback with Max Verstappen, whose replacement of the fourth internal combustion engine costs him ten grid positions. This also drives the desire to evaluate a lower downforce setup to facilitate overtakes on Sunday, avoiding getting stuck in traffic. The world champions continue to seek solutions to the tricky character of the RB20, whose updates have made finding the optimal setup increasingly complex. Indicative are the many sensors installed above the floor of Verstappen’s car before FP1, highlighting a team in search of answers.

Ferrari’s Progress

Friday’s overview positions the Maranello team as the third force. The Reds keep pace with the frontrunners on the straights of the first sector, demonstrating the usefulness of the new low-downforce package introduced in Belgium, consisting of a new rear wing and front wing flaps. Despite significant differences between the 2023 and 2024 cars, the straight-line speed in low-downforce configuration still appears decent. Ferrari, however, loses time on the sweeping curves of the second sector. Despite recent tweaks, onboard audio reveals residual bouncing on the SF-24, but the situation seems improved compared to Silverstone.

Mercedes Struggles

The Silver Arrows begin the Spa weekend as the fourth force. Mercedes dedicates part of the free practice to testing a new floor introduced in Belgium, partially sacrificing preparation for the Grand Prix. Pre-race speculation suggested the updates aimed to cure the rear instability of the W15, but Andrew Shovlin denies this: “The goal is simply more downforce. We’re not looking to change characteristics,” said the Trackside Engineering Director in the paddock.

“In Budapest, we lacked stability, but it’s more because we seem to put more heat into the tires compared to others. We need to work on that area. We have plans to address it, but it’s not the kind of issue you can solve with a single aero update.” Time will be needed to fully cure the W15’s problems, which meanwhile tries to get closer to the top by seeking more downforce.

Risky Pursuits for Mercedes

However, this search is not without risks, with Lewis Hamilton openly complaining about bouncing during practice. It’s too early to raise alarms and say Mercedes is facing the same issues as Ferrari, but if so, it would confirm how difficult it is to bring updates at the current stage of car development. Only McLaren seems to be free from side effects, reinforcing its stopwatch superiority that must be converted into points in the standings.