Formula 1 has produced two fascinating strategic battles over the past two race weekends. Both the Spanish Grand Prix and the Austrian Grand Prix featured races shaped by pit-stop strategy, with Lewis Hamilton taking victory in Barcelona thanks to an aggressive three-stop approach. At the Red Bull Ring, despite tyre conditions being close to those seen at Montmeló, most teams opted for two stops while maintaining strong pace throughout the race. Ferrari was the notable exception, choosing a three-stop strategy in an attempt to match the pace of its rivals.
Silverstone is expected to return to a more traditional strategic scenario, with a single pit stop likely to be the preferred approach. However, the word “likely” is important because, in our view, there is one key factor that could complicate matters. Before examining that possibility, let’s first look at Pirelli’s recommendations for Sunday’s race.
Pirelli’s strategy recommendations – Silverstone (52 laps)
After Saturday’s action, which saw Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint Race before securing pole position for the British Grand Prix, Pirelli Motorsport Director Dario Marrafuschi analysed tyre performance and outlined the company’s preferred race strategies.
“All three compounds proved to be valid options. Tyre degradation has so far been lower than we expected. Having to manage electrical energy in sections of the circuit where drivers were flat out until last season is certainly having an influence. That’s why our simulations show that a one-stop strategy is around 13 seconds faster than a two-stop race.”
Marrafuschi also explained which compounds Pirelli expects teams to favour during the Grand Prix.
“The C2 Medium was used by the vast majority of drivers during the Sprint, and we expect it to be the preferred tyre at the start of the Grand Prix as well. The compound proved very consistent and offers excellent strategic flexibility. The fastest option is to begin on the C2 Medium before switching to the Hard tyre between laps 24 and 30.”
“A possible alternative is the Medium-Soft strategy, with the pit stop taking place between laps 29 and 35. Other options include starting on the Hard tyre before finishing on the Medium, or beginning on the Soft and ending the race on the Hard,” Marrafuschi concluded.
The hidden trap behind the one-stop strategy
The one-stop strategy certainly looks attractive, but it may also hide a significant trap. Broadly speaking, we agree with Dario Marrafuschi’s analysis, although there appears to be only one truly reliable way of completing the race with a single pit stop: starting on a brand-new set of Medium tyres before switching to the Hard compound. Drivers starting further down the grid may even benefit from reversing that strategy, beginning on the Hard tyre and finishing on the Medium.
In our view, the Soft compound is unlikely to allow teams to complete the race with a straightforward Soft-Hard strategy. Drivers who choose to start on the Soft are likely to find themselves forced into a second pit stop. Although degradation has been relatively low, performance could still be compromised by graining, which affected both Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar during Saturday’s Sprint.
Admittedly, both Red Bull drivers completed the Sprint on used Medium tyres while many of their rivals were running fresh sets, but the issue remains worth monitoring. It is no coincidence that Red Bull is the only team to have preserved two new sets of Medium tyres, giving it the option of running an aggressive Medium-Hard-Medium strategy with fresh tyres in all three stints.
Could two stops still be the winning strategy?
Cars such as the Mercedes appear perfectly capable of completing the race using the conventional Medium-Hard strategy. Andrea Kimi Antonelli, after all, set the fastest lap of the Sprint on the final lap, underlining just how little degradation the W17 experienced. Even so, any team already concerned about graining may be better served by committing to a two-stop strategy from the outset.
A pit stop at Silverstone costs around 20 seconds, while Pirelli’s simulations suggest that two stops are theoretically 13 seconds slower than a single stop. However, strategy is rarely determined by simulations alone. If Ferrari were making the decision, splitting the strategies between Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton could be an effective way of putting additional pressure on Mercedes throughout the race.
For teams choosing two stops, one possible option would be Soft-Hard-Medium, although numerous combinations involving all three compounds remain available. If a driver still has two sets of Medium tyres available—even if one set is lightly used—a Medium-Hard-Medium strategy could prove particularly effective. In our opinion, this is probably the only genuine alternative capable of challenging those attempting to complete the race with just one stop while spending the final stint on the Hard compound.
There is, however, one final variable to consider. Graining should have a much smaller impact than it did during Saturday’s Sprint because the Silverstone circuit will be considerably more rubbered in following qualifying and the support races. Those extra laps should improve overall grip and make the one-stop strategy even more attractive. Predicting every possible scenario remains risky, which is exactly why Sunday’s British Grand Prix promises to be such an intriguing strategic contest.
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