Despite the entire Austrian Grand Prix weekend seeming to indicate a return to dominance for Verstappen and Red Bull, the finale was surprising, and in some respects, the race performances were more in line with this middle phase of the championship than with what happened at the beginning of the season. The Dutch champion had gained a gap of around 7 seconds over Norris, almost all in the first stint, and was preparing to manage the race finale to contain the British driver’s comeback, but a botched pit stop ruined Max and Red Bull’s plans. From then on, the duel between Verstappen and Norris was rough and old-fashioned. The championship leader defended himself even going beyond the limits of the regulations on at least a couple of occasions, while the charging Norris, eager for redemption after his Sprint error, attempted a couple of dives in braking but without great results. That Verstappen was unsportsmanlike is clear, but it’s also true that Norris lacks that effective flair, which is essential when fighting someone as tenacious as Max. For example, all of Norris’s attacks were at turn 3 because he couldn’t be more effective than Verstappen at the turn 4 braking point, but overtaking at turn 4 ensures fewer chances of retaliation for the one being overtaken.
In the end, Norris never managed to put his wheels ahead of Verstappen’s, not even after the incident, and incredibly, Verstappen gained more points over his direct pursuer from the incident than from winning the race with McLaren second. A prevailing notion is that Max behaves this way whenever someone tries to overtake him, but in our opinion, that’s not the reality. In recent years, we’ve sometimes seen him lift off to avoid problems, aware of his superiority that guarantees easy comebacks or at least doesn’t compromise the standings. Last weekend, however, we saw the Verstappen ready to do anything not to give up the position, and the conclusion is that when the threat is real, for the race or the title, Max’s attitude changes, and the old version reemerges, the one that doesn’t accept defeat. Yes, because the impression during the last stint of the race was that if Norris managed to pass, it wouldn’t have been easy for Verstappen to challenge him again for the win.
Despite incredible dominance in qualifying, Red Bull was only stronger than McLaren in the first stint, as evidenced by the times, thanks to better tire temperature management when fully loaded and probably a Verstappen who, when the situation is very critical, such as with a full fuel load, has something extra. But at the end, Norris and McLaren were on the rise. In a regular race, the Briton would probably have battled for the lead only in the very last laps, somewhat like in Imola, while Red Bull’s pit error put him back in the race with almost 20 laps to go. Norris had a new tire, compared to Verstappen’s 3-lap old tire, but even in the stabilized phase, McLaren was slightly faster in the last stint, so much so that in the only moment Verstappen managed, taking advantage of the lapping, to get rid of Norris’s DRS, it took the latter just a few corners to latch back onto the exhaust of the number 1 car.
Seeing the performance in qualifying with light cars, this is a surprising fact from which it can be deduced that the performance on a single lap was closely tied to extracting the peak from the very soft tire (Pirelli brought the three softest compounds), in which Red Bull is evidently still superior to McLaren. This is not the case when the compounds are harder and therefore more stable (with McLaren on pole in Spain where Pirelli indeed brought the three hardest compounds in the range). For the championship, what happened is ultimately a big step forward for Verstappen, but McLaren continues to prove incredibly strong and complete, even when they seem almost doomed on the eve, and this can only mean that Verstappen will continue to play hard (and dirty) because the threat from the Woking team remains real in both championships. In short, it won’t be surprising if what was seen in Austria is just a prelude to what will happen in the second part of the season.
In the end, the victory still went to George Russell, with a Mercedes just ahead of Ferrari (by our calculations less than a tenth per lap) but with the merit of never giving up an inch throughout the race and this first phase of the season. Ferrari’s deep crisis promotes the Brackley team to third force, which can obviously seize these opportunities well, unlike the red team which certified its phase of enormous difficulty in Austria. However, Carlos Sainz was the protagonist of a solid and concrete weekend and deserved the result, also speaking good words after the race while Charles Leclerc is blamed for a qualifying compromised by an all-out attitude, which was not very useful given the ease of overtaking at the Red Bull Ring.
Now moving on to the Maranello team, the situation does not seem simple. What happened is now clearly emerging both from the data and from the statements of the protagonists who, after initial reticence, are beginning to confirm what the problem afflicting Ferrari is now. Basically, after an initial setup of a certain type of aerodynamic concept, learned from the mistakes of 2023, in the early months of 2024 the Maranello engineers evidently found that the most profitable way to find aerodynamic load and performance was in line with the winter revolution carried out by Red Bull and with a different concept. A path that, as we have already had the opportunity to recount, is compatible with the initial advantage in research and development of the Milton Keynes team over the competition. This started the race for updates, with an initially “abandoned” SF-24 in terms of original version while the conceptual revolution was in the works. It would indeed have been useless and wasteful to bring updates to the old concept while working full-time on the new one. Thus, the first package arrived at Imola, which clearly had the intention of bringing the first improvements, but above all of modifying the aerodynamic map of the car to prepare it for what would come next. And in fact, the Imola package brought a first step forward on track, which seemed to steer everything in the right direction.
After a frantic race by the factory and suppliers, the package that was supposed to be crucial arrived in Barcelona, as it aimed for a significant increase in aerodynamic load, which would have had positive cascading effects, including, among other things, the difficulties in qualifying. The problem stems from this second package: the increase in load brought with it an aerodynamic bounce far greater than any expectations. The suspension system, designed for the original concept of the SF-24, does not seem able to support and withstand the increased load and the way it is generated by the new concept, especially in corners. Consequently, the load is there, but the performance is destroyed by the bouncing effect: to try to mitigate the bouncing, the car can be raised from the ground, but this results in a loss of load and efficiency; otherwise, they have to grit their teeth, but end up with a car that becomes almost undrivable in fast corners due to the continuous changes in the aerodynamic map and the load oscillations that the driver cannot manage.
The situation dangerously resembles what was seen at Mercedes at the beginning of this regulatory era, with Lewis Hamilton, in fact, saying in interviews that it was not a problem of lack of load, but if they added more, instead of going faster, they just bounced more. This, however, is a crucial and delicate moment for this and the next season for Ferrari.
It is quite evident that there is no possibility of going back, as the identified path is likely the best one, as indicated by the similarities with what was seen at Red Bull and McLaren. However, the budget cap and tight timeframes prevent a change in the suspension design for this year. At the same time, even giving up any goals for the current season, development must necessarily continue, as the 2025 car will have the 2024 one as its starting point. It is no coincidence that Frederic Vasseur, responding to a question from Vicky Piria on Sky Italia, had no doubts: Ferrari does not intend to go back, they have to think about the future. The issue, therefore, is how to find a solution, if possible, with what is currently available to the engineers at Ferrari.
It is likely that a lot of work will go into the setups, trying to revolutionize the settings used so far, including stiffness, ride heights, and mechanical settings, perhaps sacrificing some peak performance to achieve a stable and, above all, still developable car, to continue the evolutionary process both to keep trying to compete for something this season and, as mentioned, to avoid compromising the next year from the start. The next race at Silverstone will put the SF-24 to the test because most of the corners at the splendid English circuit are high-speed. The three free practice sessions could help find some remedy, which, at that point, should revive the car. The approach between optimism and pessimism is not consistent between Fred Vasseur and the Ferrari drivers, with Carlos Sainz and the team principal being more positive than Charles Leclerc in this case. Certainly, technically, this is the most critical moment so far in Fred Vasseur’s management. We will see how the French team principal and the Maranello engineers manage to finish the crossing and find the path on the other side of the difficult river they are crossing.
