The conclusion of the 2023 Formula 1 campaign will unfold this weekend in the United Arab Emirates, maintaining the annual tradition since 2021. Max Verstappen aims to secure his 19th victory of the year, surpassing his own record of fifteen wins from the previous season, which had already surpassed the records set by Michael Schumacher and Sebastian Vettel.
The Red Bull RB19’s dominance has found a perfect match in the meticulous Dutchman, known for rare errors. McLaren, looking to bounce back after a challenging race in Nevada, seeks to reassert itself as the second force in the Abu Dhabi GP. Meanwhile, Mercedes and Ferrari will engage in a battle for the second position in the constructors’ championship.
However, achieving this goal will come at a cost in terms of wind tunnel hours in the first half of 2024. Aston Martin shows improvement post the latest updates, but the Yas Marina circuit may not be the ideal terrain for the AMR23. Further down the standings, Williams and Alpha Tauri will contend for P7, with Alfa Romeo poised to overtake the Faenza team in an unpredictable race.
The Abu Dhabi GP may witness strategic decisions between Ferrari and Mercedes
The UAE circuit boasts two primary straights, providing opportunities for DRS utilization, crucial if engineers opt for higher load settings.
Expect a significant variation in downforce settings to navigate the 5.28km track 58 times during Sunday’s race, commencing at 2 pm Italian time.
The number of slow curves (4 in total) is notably fewer than before the 2020-2021 modifications that accelerated the track, especially in the last sector. Presently, there are four medium-speed curves in the final stretch, accompanied by a slow curve and a fast curve.
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There are five medium-speed curves, ranging from 120 to 200 km/h, while the high-speed ones are limited to ‘only’ two. These alterations have resulted in numerous overtaking opportunities in 2022 and 2021 compared to previous years.
Red Bull assumes the role of the outright favorite in both Qualifying and the race, but McLaren poses a threat. Despite a challenging circuit like Las Vegas, the MCL60 exhibited solid race pace after facing issues in the flying lap due to suboptimal Q1 strategy.
The Woking team contends for the second-fastest role, with Ferrari and Mercedes potentially trailing slightly in terms of performance, engaged in a tight battle for second place in the constructor’s championship – accounting for unforeseen events, frequent this season.
Aston Martin demonstrated promising races in Brazil and Las Vegas but may encounter challenges again in Abu Dhabi due to the diverse corner types.
Ferrari places substantial emphasis on Qualifying, securing three Pole Positions in the last four races, even on comprehensive circuits like COTA and Mexico City. The SF-23 adeptly manages its tires, preserving them in the early laps of the race – emphasizing the critical role of qualifying.
Last year at the Yas Marina Circuit, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc executed a one-stop strategy better than Sergio Perez, leveraging the soft compound’s potential advantage for the Italian team. On the flip side, Mercedes seemed to uncover some benefits with the package introduced in Texas.
However, they failed to fully exploit the car’s potential. For George, the Yas Marina circuit might not be ideal, but it is an opportunity to reveal the car’s full potential. Strategies must be precise, and the setup fine-tuned in the simulator and optimized between Friday and Saturday to ensure the English drivers a strong performance in the flying lap. Subsequently, they aim to capitalize on superior tire management on Sunday to gain positions against Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz.
Pirelli confirms the tire choices which were made last year, featuring the C3, C4, and C5 for the final weekend of the year. In 2022, both Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc successfully executed a one-stop strategy, starting on the C4 and finishing the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on the C3. The two-stop strategy proved equally swift, particularly for drivers and cars unable to extend tire life, suggesting a similar scenario this year.
A pit lane loss of approximately 22 seconds doesn’t significantly favor one strategy over the other. The most stressed tires will likely be those on the right side, especially the rear, given the track’s counterclockwise direction.
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