Roberto Chinchero’s Suzuka insight: “Ferrari can put Mercedes under serious pressure”. Roberto Chinchero believes Ferrari can challenge Mercedes at Suzuka.

After qualifying for the third round of the 2026 Formula 1 season in Japan, all attention now shifts to the race, where every detail could prove decisive. According to Roberto Chinchero’s analysis, the situation remains wide open, although some clear hierarchies have already emerged.

“Mercedes is the favorite for tomorrow, but in the last two races Ferrari has started better. At Suzuka you need about a one-second margin to overtake, so if Ferrari managed to get into the lead it would be difficult, and Mercedes would have to do everything to resist Leclerc’s pressure. The race is never predictable; if it becomes a race of pure pace, Mercedes will pull away, but it will be a race to be enjoyed,” the Italian journalist explained in his article for the Motorsport.com website..

Track position will be crucial at Suzuka

The key factor is precisely track position. Overtaking at the Suzuka Circuit is notoriously difficult, and this could make the race start one of the most decisive moments of the entire Grand Prix.

If Ferrari manages to take the lead in the early stages, it could build a gap that is hard to close, especially given the aerodynamic sensitivity and energy management demands of the circuit.

Mercedes still leads on race pace

On the other hand, Mercedes remains the benchmark in terms of race pace, a factor that is likely to become increasingly important over a full race distance.

Everything will therefore depend on how the race unfolds: tire management, strategy calls, and consistent pace will be crucial elements in determining the final result.

A race full of uncertainty

The overall feeling is that nothing is decided yet. Between potential surprises and possible momentum shifts, the Japanese Grand Prix promises excitement right up to the final lap.

In summary, while Mercedes enters the Japanese Grand Prix with the fastest car, Roberto Chinchero highlights that Ferrari’s explosive starts could neutralize that advantage. Based on the content of the qualifying data and recent race trends, the battle for the win will likely be decided in the short sprint to the first corner.