Riccardo Patrese has predicted that Kimi Antonelli will win the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix ahead of Ferrari drivers Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc. Although the Hungaroring’s slow-speed layout is widely expected to provide the SF-26 with a favourable opportunity, the former Formula 1 driver believes Mercedes should not be underestimated around the Budapest circuit.
According to Riccardo Patrese’s prediction, the first national anthem played after Sunday’s race will therefore be the Italian anthem in honour of Kimi Antonelli rather than Ferrari. His forecast places Lewis Hamilton second and Charles Leclerc third, giving the Scuderia a double podium but denying the Maranello team victory.
Kimi Antonelli tipped to beat Ferrari at the Hungarian GP
The Hungarian Grand Prix weekend begins today with Friday’s opening two free practice sessions. There is considerable interest surrounding Ferrari’s new high-downforce rear wing, commonly known as the Macarena specification, which will be seen in action at the Hungaroring.
The Italian team has introduced an upgraded Macarena rear wing on the SF-26 for a circuit where maximum downforce and performance through slower corners are particularly important. Its first track appearance will provide an early indication of whether Ferrari can translate its apparent theoretical advantage into competitive lap times.
Kimi Antonelli, meanwhile, will not take part in FP1. The championship leader will hand his Mercedes over to Frederik Vesti as part of the mandatory free practice opportunities Formula 1 teams must allocate to young drivers. Frederik Vesti is serving as Mercedes’ third driver during the 2026 season. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}
Antonelli has won six of the opening ten races
Kimi Antonelli has won six of the ten Grands Prix held so far in 2026, establishing himself as the central figure in the championship battle. One of the Italian driver’s most impressive victories came in Monaco, where Ferrari had been widely regarded as the pre-event favourite because of the strong chassis qualities of the SF-26.
That Monaco result is particularly relevant to Riccardo Patrese’s Hungarian GP prediction. Monte Carlo and the Hungaroring both place considerable emphasis on performance through slower corners, yet Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes were still able to defeat Ferrari on the streets of the principality.
Ferrari arrives in Budapest after delivering strong performances at Silverstone and Spa-Francorchamps, two circuits that appeared less favourable to the SF-26 on paper. Those results have raised expectations that the team could be even more competitive at a venue whose layout may better suit its strengths.
However, Charles Leclerc has already warned that Ferrari cannot simply assume the Hungaroring will suit the SF-26. Riccardo Patrese has now expressed a similar view, pointing to Mercedes’ own ability in the slow-speed sections that are expected to define the weekend.
Riccardo Patrese warns Mercedes is also strong in slow corners
“Everyone says Hungary is a Ferrari circuit with slow-speed corners, but Monte Carlo was also a Ferrari circuit with slow-speed corners and Kimi Antonelli won the race,” Riccardo Patrese said. “So I am not sure Ferrari can be considered the favourite.”
The former Formula 1 driver acknowledged that the Hungaroring could suit the Maranello car, but he rejected the idea that its characteristics automatically make Ferrari the team to beat.
“Everyone says it is a Ferrari circuit,” Riccardo Patrese continued. “I say it could be, but we must not forget that Mercedes is also strong in the slow corners. My podium is Kimi Antonelli, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc.”
That assessment reflects the competitive uncertainty surrounding the weekend. Ferrari’s low-speed performance represents a genuine reason for optimism, but the Hungarian GP comparison between Ferrari and Mercedes also identifies important strengths that could keep the championship leaders firmly in contention.
Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc still backed for the podium
Although Riccardo Patrese does not expect Ferrari to win, his prediction remains positive for the Italian team. Placing Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc second and third would confirm the Scuderia’s competitiveness and give both drivers another substantial points haul.
Lewis Hamilton’s presence in second place is also significant because of his exceptional history at the Hungaroring. His record in Budapest has already strengthened hopes that he could claim another Ferrari victory, particularly if the SF-26 performs as expected through the circuit’s slower sections.
Charles Leclerc, meanwhile, will be aiming to build on Ferrari’s recent form while helping the team determine whether the new rear-wing specification delivers the intended benefit. Friday practice will therefore be important not only for outright pace, but also for understanding the balance of the SF-26 and its tyre behaviour over longer runs.
Riccardo Patrese’s forecast ultimately reflects a cautious conclusion: Ferrari may possess several characteristics suited to the Hungaroring, but Mercedes has already demonstrated that it can defeat the Scuderia on a slow-speed circuit. For that reason, the former driver believes Kimi Antonelli remains the most likely winner, with Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc completing the podium behind him.
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