In Montreal, George Russell starts from pole position and will try to secure Mercedes’ first win of the 2024 Formula 1 season, with Red Bull’s Max Verstappen ready to pounce. McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, starting from the second row, are also dreaming big, while the climb for the two Ferrari cars, starting from eleventh and twelfth positions, seems more challenging. However, nothing is ruled out, as many uncertainties precede the race, explained to FormulaPassion by Pirelli’s Chief Engineer, Simone Berra.
Without data
The Canadian weekend was characterized by variable weather, with rain canceling much of Friday’s free practice, limiting race pace simulations. This makes strategy planning more complex than usual, both for the teams and for Pirelli. “We base our strategies on pre-event data and historical data,” Simone Berra explains. “In this case, we are even more disadvantaged because the asphalt is completely new compared to last year, with slightly different characteristics. It’s not entirely different in terms of roughness, it is very smooth, but we have collected less data than we would have liked. We gathered more data on Saturday, especially on the medium tires, but no information on the hard tires.”
“Everything is a bit more uncertain, let’s put it that way,” explains the Pirelli Chief Engineer. “You have fewer certainties because you have fewer reference points. The track is still not in optimal conditions in terms of grip and general cleanliness. It has rained a lot in recent days, so we expect a track that will still be quite green at the start and will gradually evolve. If the race is entirely dry, there will be significant evolution, which we know influences performance. However, if there are more rain showers, as the weather forecast currently predicts, then everything could be further mixed up.”
High wear
Track evolution is therefore the first major uncertainty on the eve of the race, coupled with wear higher than expected: “Pre-event, we expected a single stop to be the fastest and the degradation to be much more manageable. In reality, we have seen that thermal degradation is relatively low, but still a bit higher than we expected on Wednesday or Thursday before hitting the track. Instead, the level of graining is particularly high, caused by slipping due to lack of grip. We have seen several slow-motion shots of cars sliding on all four wheels, which is quite unusual for a Formula 1 car.”
“This generates abrasions, graining precisely, which tends to consume the tire more than it normally would,” Simone Berra continues. “For this reason, looking at the data from Saturday morning, we see that the wear life of the medium tire is practically halved compared to what we expected pre-event. This leads us to say that the single stop is very marginal on paper. Doing medium-hard, which was initially the strategy we said was the fastest on paper, currently requires a level of management or a level of cleaning the graining that is significant.”
Towards two stops
While a single pit stop cannot be excluded, the most likely scenario remains that of two stops. Simone Berra continues: “Someone will certainly try to do a single stop, but it is no longer as clear as we expected before the race. Instead, we see two stops much better, always starting on the medium and then doing two stints on the hard. For those who only have one set of hard tires and two mediums, the alternative is obviously medium-hard-medium, with the medium in the last stint when the track might be more rubbered in.”
The strategies, however, will also be influenced by the third and final variable, linked to unforeseen events, primarily the risk of rain and neutralizations. Simone Berra concludes: “Safety Cars have a significant influence, as we saw last year, which is why the pit stop windows will be very tied to possible safety cars, virtual safety cars, or incidents. Surely the race is fundamentally interesting from a strategic point of view, because there could be different philosophies and approaches, added to the weather uncertainty. It is a circuit where overtaking is possible if you have a relatively faster pace than the car in front, so there are the premises to see an interesting Grand Prix.”
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