While Red Bull – especially Max Verstappen – seems to have put a serious claim on victory in the Chinese Grand Prix after the pace shown in the Sprint event on Saturday morning, the battle for the third step of the podium will be anything but certain. The Saturday morning race allowed teams and Pirelli to gather important data for Sunday, on a track where no race had been held for five years and with an asphalt ‘spoiled’ by the now famous layer of bitumen that made it particularly slippery in the early laps of the weekend.
Tire degradation management will be a fundamental aspect, inevitably pushing towards a two-stop strategy where all three compounds – including the Soft – can be part of the game and further mix up the cards.
Simone Berra, Pirelli’s Chief Engineer, outlined the possible scenarios that the Italian supplier expects to see in the Chinese Grand Prix, which takes place at the 5.451-kilometre Shanghai International Circuit.
“The degradation is quite high, so we expect teams to lean towards multiple stops. We have two two-stop options that are the fastest on paper. Starting on the Medium, doing a stint on the Hard, and then finishing the last part of the race still on the Medium. Or starting with the Medium and doing two stints on the Hard. Of course, not all teams have two sets of Hard tires, so it will also depend on the availability of sets that individual teams have. For example, Red Bull and Ferrari have two sets of Hard tires, McLaren, Aston Martin, and Mercedes only have one.” – Simone Berra explained at the end of the qualifying session for the 2024 Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix.
Soft not to be ruled out, strong undercut
As anticipated, even the Soft (used only by George Russell in the Sprint) could be a valid solution: “There are also alternative strategies using the Soft, which didn’t perform too badly in the Sprint and allowed George Russell to stay with the group of the best – explained Simone Berra – The degradation was quite in line with the Medium. The idea could be to start with the Soft and then do two stints with the Hard, of course for the teams that have them available, or to use all three compounds. This would allow for a slightly shorter initial stint and to try to use the undercut to pass the drivers ahead, but in fact, it’s not the best strategy.” – he warned.
The undercut, therefore, will be a very important element. In recent editions, it has been seen how it allowed gaining up to three seconds in the exit lap: this could allow those in traffic, bringing the tires up to temperature, to avoid being trapped in complicated “DRS trains.”
Ferrari, a possible single stop like in Japan?
In the first four races, we’ve seen a Ferrari very gentle on the tires, able to better manage the degradation so much so that Charles Leclerc, in Japan, dared a one-stop strategy – against the two of rival teams – gaining several positions. Is this a solution that the engineers at Ferrari might consider for this race? The situation is actually slightly different, starting with the available compounds, which are one step softer compared to Suzuka.
Show your support for Scuderia Ferrari with official merchandise collection! Click here to enter the F1 online Store and shop securely! And also get your F1 tickets for every race with VIP hospitality and unparalleled insider access. Click here for the best offers to support Charles and Carlos from the track!
“Surely those with less degradation will benefit from being able to perhaps extend the run and then try, in the second part, to overtake. Here, overtaking is feasible; if you have more speed, you can attack with the DRS thanks to a very long straight. We saw it today with Alonso, who struggled in the last part of the stint and was very vulnerable. However, making only one stop here is, on paper, 10 seconds slower with the data we have at the moment. So honestly, I see it difficult even for those, like Ferrari, with good tire management,” emphasized Simone Berra. “It’s true that Shanghai is a less demanding circuit than Suzuka, but it still has very fast corners, where thermal degradation is important. Especially here, you have much more traction, and we know well that when degradation comes from combined traction, tire management is much more difficult. That’s why a one-stop strategy doesn’t pay off on paper.”
Lewis Hamilton can take a risk with the Hard at the start
The one who will be called to the feat is Lewis Hamilton, only 18th in qualifying. The Englishman, who doesn’t have a performing car like the rivals ahead, can try a different wildcard like the Hard at the start.
“Yes, I expect this because, starting so far back, even with the hard tire, you have little to lose. Although the grip at the start of the C2 is much lower than C3 and C4, you then have the advantage of being able to go longer and manage a different strategy in the second part of the race. Already in the past in China, someone, starting from behind, has tried such a comeback.”
Little advantage from new tires
In the Sprint, finally, the use of a new tire didn’t make a difference and won’t even in the race except at the start and at most in the first lap. Simone Berra explained why: “As mentioned, Shanghai is a circuit with a lot of thermal degradation, so the real difference between a new and a used tire is only seen in a performance run in qualifying. In the race, a new tire might give a bit more grip at the start, but after the first lap, the performances equalize, and then tire management has more effect than using the new tire (as happened to Carlos Sainz in the Sprint).” – the Italian concluded.
Leave a Reply