The Belgian Grand Prix promises to be highly interesting. Ferrari starts from pole position with Charles Leclerc, who will need to fend off Sergio Perez’s Red Bull and Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes. The two McLarens must recover from fourth and fifth positions, but even more challenging is Max Verstappen’s climb from 11th on the grid. In a two-stop race where tire choices could be decisive, there is a suspicion that Red Bull may have made a mistake.
Track surface factor
The recent resurfacing of the Belgian track is a key factor affecting tires and strategies in the race, as explained by Pirelli’s Chief Engineer Simone Berra: “The new track surface has shown very different characteristics compared to the old one: it is smoother, has lower roughness, and much more grip. Drivers have noticed the difference, reporting that the new asphalt provides a different balance to the car in various sections. Mainly, drivers experienced understeer on the new asphalted sections and a bit more oversteer on the older parts.”
“This has generated graining, which we haven’t seen here in the past two years,” Simone Berra continues. “According to our evaluations, the graining is not due to temperatures, which are not extremely high but not very low either, but rather to the new asphalt. With higher cornering speeds, loads are greater, and tire stress is higher than in previous years.”
“Graining mainly affects the front axle, while thermal degradation concerns the rear. Compared to previous years, we suffer more rear degradation due to high temperatures and the circuit’s design causing high tire stress. This year, the two mechanisms are balanced: thermal degradation at the rear and graining at the front. With soft and medium tires, both aspects need to be managed, whereas with hard tires, graining is not an issue, though degradation remains high.”
All About Hard Tires
This situation changes the teams’ preferences for race tires, thereby altering strategies. Pirelli’s Chief Engineer continues: “The hard tire performed well on Friday. In the past two years, the hard tire was avoided here because, despite having lower degradation than the soft and medium, its performance was not aligned. It was not a favorable compound, but this Friday, it worked well. The hard tire is more resistant both thermally and mechanically, so it did not experience graining.”
“On paper, the fastest strategy remains medium-hard-hard. Teams that saved two sets of hard tires are favored over the race distance. For those without two sets of hard tires, the fastest strategy on paper is medium-hard-medium, trying to extend the middle stint on hard tires as much as possible.” Four teams decided to keep two sets of hard tires for the race: Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren, and Alpine. Berra believes this was a carefully considered decision and not a coincidence.
“They have simulations on their side; we saw this pre-event as well. From our evaluations, we expected the hard tire to be more competitive than in the past, but it’s always the track that provides the actual feedback. They likely waited for some teams to use the hard tire in the first free practices, gathering initial feedback from the simulation times.”
Red Bull’s Puzzling Choice
Surprisingly, the reigning champions enter the race with only one set of hard tires despite Verstappen’s climb through the field and the high degradation observed on Friday: “According to our data, Red Bull experienced more degradation compared to teams like McLaren, which were the most consistent in race simulations. Red Bull probably opted for a higher downforce setup to manage tire degradation better. This choice paid off in qualifying but may have different implications in the race. If they lack sufficient top speed, overtaking could be challenging. Having a new engine helps since they can push it more. However, in terms of race pace, I see McLaren as favored over both Mercedes and Ferrari.”
It is possible that the Milton Keynes team is aiming for an aggressive strategy, leveraging high downforce to make the most of soft and medium tires. According to Pirelli, however, the champions may have misjudged. “I don’t think Red Bull expected the hard tire to be the race compound, given past experiences,” Simone Berra comments. “They might not have anticipated the significant impact of the new track surface. In previous editions, they leaned towards using softer compounds, so they may have planned a similar strategy for this race. While we don’t rule out using medium and soft tires, aiming for a highly aggressive strategy with a soft start followed by two stints on mediums, the degradation we’ve seen could make this too aggressive.” – he concluded.
Leave a Reply